陕西延安地区1992—2000年干旱趋势灰色预测

本文存分析延安地区干旱特征的基础上,采用地地区40a的资料,运用灰色理论的预测方法,预测了1992～2000年间干旱发生的季节及强度,预计该时该区的旱情将持续出现,故提出必须立足抗旱,以保农业生产的稳步发展。     

防旱抗旱能力综合评价方法：—以关中地区为例

本文采用11项指标并确定相应的评分标准和权重分配,对关中地区进行防旱抗旱能力的综合评价,得出关中地区属中等抗旱能力区。由于经济发展需水超过供水能力,现状及本世纪末缺水率将超过20％。因而跨流域引水是今后长期供水的途径。     

1976 Illinois drought: Evidence for improved water quality

During 1976, Illinois experienced a mild drought, of i ntensity equivalent to the once in 5 years frequency. It was anticipated that the drought would result in deteriorated water quality because dilution of point source discharges would be diminished. Furthermore, because productivity in Illinois streams is light limited, reduced runoff should result in clearer streams, higher algae levels, and greater variability in dissolved oxygen levels. In spite of these expectations, both chemical and biologic data showed that water quality in 1976 was appreciably better than that before 1975. The information provided by the Illinois water quality index (Janardan and Schaeffer 1977) coincides with biologic analyses of benthic invertebrates. The index supports and supplements the biologic data and provides a means for quantifying and integrating chemical and biologic data.The results of this study showed that the drought had little, if any, effect on statewide water quality. Although the magnitude of the drought varied across the state, water quality remained unchanged between 1975 and 1976. This may have reflected the ability of unpolluted systems to adjust to natural variations or have been an indication that there were offsetting statewide gains in pollution control in 1976 or that uncharacterized, broad-based phenomena were operating in stream ecology, or that combinations of these were in effect.Based on presentations before the American Water Resources Assocition, Illinois Section, Chicago, Illinois, June 10–11, 1977.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

Response of Fish and Macroinvertebrate Bioassessment Indices to Water Chemistry in a Mined Appalachian Watershed

Multimetric indices based on fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages are commonly used to assess the biological integrity of aquatic ecosystems. However, their response to specific stressors is rarely known. We quantified the response of a fish-based index (Mid-Atlantic Highlands Index of Biotic Integrity, MAH-IBI) and a benthic invertebrate-based index (West Virginia Stream Condition Index, WV-SCI) to acid mine drainage (AMD)-related stressors in 46 stream sites within the Cheat River watershed, West Virginia. We also identified specific stressor concentrations at which biological impairment was always or never observed. Water chemistry was extremely variable among tributaries of the Cheat River, and the WV-SCI was highly responsive across a range of AMD stressor levels. Furthermore, impairment to macroinvertebrate communities was observed at relatively low stressor concentrations, especially when compared to state water quality standards. In contrast to the WV-SCI, we found that the MAH-IBI was significantly less responsive to local water quality conditions. Low fish diversity was observed in several streams that possessed relatively good water quality. This pattern was especially pronounced in highly degraded subwatersheds, suggesting that regional conditions may have a strong influence on fish assemblages in this system. Our results indicate that biomonitoring programs in mined watersheds should include both benthic invertebrates, which are consistent indicators of local conditions, and fishes, which may be indicators of regional conditions. In addition, remediation programs must address the full suite of chemical constituents in AMD and focus on improving linkages among streams within drainage networks to ensure recovery of invertebrate and fish assemblages. Future research should identify the precise chemical conditions necessary to maintain biological integrity in mined Appalachian watersheds.     

福建省生产废水和生活污水污染物排放的驱动力及其时空分异

采用对数平均迪氏指数方法,区分生产和生活两个体系,构建时空分解分析模型,追踪了福建省9个设区市2011—2019年水污染物排放变化的关键驱动力及其贡献的时空差异.结果显示：研究期内福建省工业废水污染物排放持续减少,并且各驱动力贡献的区域差距明显变小,趋于平衡;生活污水污染物排放量仍保持高位,各驱动力贡献的区域差距基本保持不变.其中,经济规模扩张是福建省水污染物排放的主导驱动力,主要源于福州、厦门、泉州经济赶超发展影响;城镇化发展对区域生活污水污染物排放的驱动影响表现为增排效应,以福州和厦门尤为显著;工业化发展对区域工业废水污染物排放的影响效应由正驱动逐渐转变为负驱动,这主要归功于三明和泉州产业结构调整优化的拉动 效应;技术效应一直是福建省水污染物排放控制的重要驱动力,但部分地区已逐渐步入生活污染物技术减排攻坚期.     

大功率中短波广播天线电磁辐射的预测与防护

随着城镇密集度越来越高,大功率电磁辐射设备如大功率中短波天线不可避免的与建筑越来越近,因而对室内的电磁环境污染逐步加剧。电磁辐射造成的危害通常包括对人体健康的危害(健康效应)和干扰其他电磁设备而造成严重后果(电磁干扰)。针对大功率中短波天线造成的电磁环境污染问题,提出一套远场条件下电磁辐射的预测方法并成功预测了一个典型大功率中短波天线群附近的拟建项目区域的电磁环境,在此基础上,提出有效的针对拟建项目的电磁防护方案。     

A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period. While the ecosystem was not in exceedance of the CAL, long-term nitrogen deposition pre-disposed the forest to other ecological stress. In combination, insects, drought, and nitrogen ultimately combined to cause the observed forest mortality. If any one of these factors were not present, the trees would likely not have died. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the ecosystem consequences of these interactions as well as limited plot level data to support this concept. Future assessments of the use of CAL studies need to account for multiple stress impacts to better understand ecosystem response.     

关于建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思

本文对建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思进行了初步的探讨,其中包括自然灾害评估指标系统;灾害评估的分类和程序;自然灾害评估的基础工作;自然灾害评估的主要手段;自然灾害评估系统的模式和灾害数据库的建立。