风险管理决策方法探讨

分析了影响企业风险管理决策的主要因素,如生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值;进而研究如何将主要因素有机结合并作为风险管理决策的准则,得出风险管理决策时应依次将生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值作为决策依据的论断;通过例证说明具体的风险管理决策过程。结果表明:笔者所研究出的风险管理决策准则与方法能为企业风险管理者提供指导和借鉴。     

应急撤离建模研究的现状、问题与发展趋势

分析以往的突发事件应急撤离决策过多依赖决策者主观判断的问题,提出通过构建应急撤离模型为决策者提供更客观的辅助决策信息,并阐述了应急撤离建模过程涉及的主要要素。通过对3种主要应急撤离建模方法——宏观、微观和中观的撤离建模过程的详细介绍和分析,综观了当前应急撤离建模的研究现状。在该基础上,研讨每种建模方法的特点、适用范围以及存在的主要问题,并针对这些问题,给出可能的解决方法和未来的发展方向。归纳应急撤离建模研究的成果,提出在实际应急撤离建模工作中应注意的问题。     

城乡生态经济交错区农地城市流转决策博弈研究

在城市化过程中,城乡生态经济交错区的农地被占用是一种普遍现象。在我国,农地城市流转是通过土地征用而实现的,即我国农地城市流转决策属于政府行为,因此,从决策主体行为出发,研究农地城市流转,对于我国城市化的正常推进以及农地的有效保护具有重要的现实意义。研究得出,在现有的制度安排下,地方政府更加注重区域农地流转的经济发展,村干部往往是政策的执行者,而农民在决策中往往处于弱势地位,对于农地流转决策影响不大。可见,要控制农地过量向城市流转,必须树立科学的发展观,完善决策机制,规范征地行为,提高农民参与权。     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。     

Analysis of a rural water supply project in three communities in Mali: Participation and sustainability

This paper presents a qualitative assessment of the participatory water management strategies implemented at the community level in rural Mali through a water supply project — The West Africa Water Initiative (WAWI) — coordinated by World Vision International, a non‐governmental and humanitarian organization. Data for the study were generated through a combination of primary and secondary sources in three villages. Results of the study indicate that while community‐based rural water supply is a positive step in responding to the needs of rural Malians, the installation of boreholes with hand pumps informed merely by consultative participatory approaches and limited extension involvement will not necessarily proffer sustainable rural water supply in the region. A “platform” approach to rural water supply management that can mobilize the assets and insights of different social actors to influence decision making at all stages, including the design and choice‐of‐technology stages, in water supply interventions is instead advocated.     

Ethical Tools to Support Systematic Public Deliberations about the Ethical Aspects of Agricultural Biotechnologies

This special issue of the Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics presents so-called ethical tools that are developed to support systematic public deliberations about the ethical aspects of agricultural biotechnologies. This paper firstly clarifies the intended connotations of the term “ethical tools” and argues that such tools can support liberal democracies to cope with the issues that are raised by the application of genetic modification and other modern biotechnologies in agriculture and food production. The paper secondly characterizes the societal discussion on agricultural biotechnology and defends the thesis that normative perspectives fuel this discussion, so one cannot come to grips with this discussion if one neglects these perspectives. The paper thirdly agrues that no such thing exists as “one” societal debate in which these issues should be discussed. There are several interwined debates, and different actors participate in different discourses. Some practical instruments are necessary in order to include the right issues in these debates. These instruments will be coined as “ethical tools,” since they are practical instruments that can be used (tools) in order to support debates and deliberative structures for a systematic engagement with ethical issues (hence, ethical tools). Finally, the paper clarifies the ethics of these ethical tools and presents the tools as discussed in the remainder of this special issue: 1) tools to include ethical issues in public consulation and involvement; 2) tools to support systematic reflection upon ethical issues in decision-making; and 3) tools to support explicit communication about values in the food chain.     

Global localism: Recentering the research agenda for biodiversity conservation

Global environmental crisis narratives about biodiversity loss promote conservation research on how human activities impact natural resources and link scientific findings to protectionist policies. This paper critiques how local knowledge, over space and through time, is constructed for these studies and integrated with ecological measures and qualitative interpretations of biodiversity conditions. As a case example, we describe how ethnoecological research at Mt. Kasigau, a biodiversity hot spot in Southeastern Kenya, changes ‘scientific’ views on human–resource relations. Species richness in woody plants and local knowledge about trees show resource continua on the mountain that question the designation of diverse undisturbed forests and degraded human‐utilized lands. Local narratives document spatially dynamic and adaptive relationships between the Kasigau Taita and their plant resources as they moved up and down the mountain in response to environmental conditions and extra local forces. We argue that greater ‘local learning’ about local places is important to hypothesizing and potentially guiding ‘global action’ for biodiversity conservation.     

甘肃省冬春季人工增雨雪作业指挥系统

为了提高甘肃省人工增雨雪的水平和效果，准确、及时地把握作业气象条件，使人工增雨雪在抗旱减灾中取得更好的社会、经济效益，研制建立了“甘肃省冬春季人工增雨雪作业指挥系统”。该系统包括作业信息系统、作业指挥系统和效果检查系统共3个分系统。详细介绍了各分系统的组成和功能。