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131.
基于范例推理的灾害性地震应急物资需求预测研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于范例推理(CBR)理论,利用最近相邻法和粗糙集理论搜索相似度最高的主震历史范例,分析各主要物资需求量的影响因素,预测当前范例主震期应急物资需求量。通过序贯决策,采用马尔科夫预测模型预测余震类型,进而搜索余震历史范例,预测余震期应急物资需求量。以"玉树"地震为例,运用该方法估算地震发生后食物类、生活用品类、药品类、工程机械类的需求量。 相似文献
132.
安全管理决策支持系统的管理控制框架探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
从安全管理的特性出发,用控制框图说明了安全管理控制系统的组成。在论述安全管理决策的内容及其最重。要的问题的过程中,提出了安全管理对象化的思想。利用6步描述方法解析了安全管理问题,并构建了安全决策支持系统的4 4模块化框架,为系统的研究与开发奠定基础。 相似文献
133.
134.
Julie G. Zaehringer Jorge C. Llopis Phokham Latthachack Tun Tun Thein Andreas Heinimann 《Journal of Land Use Science》2018,13(1-2):16-31
Tropical forests are under pressure from both commercial and smallholder agriculture. Forest frontiers are seeing dynamic land use changes that frequently lead to land system regime shifts, posing challenges for the sustainability of entire local social-ecological systems. Monitoring highly dynamic land use change and detecting land system regime shifts is methodologically challenging due to trade-offs between spatial and temporal data resolution. We propose an innovative approach that combines analysis of very-high-resolution satellite imagery with participatory mapping based on workshops and field walks. Applying it in Laos, Myanmar, and Madagascar, we were able to collect annual land use information over several decades. Unlike conventional land use change mapping approaches, which assess only few points in time, our approach provides information at a temporal resolution that enables detection of gradual and abrupt land system regime shifts. 相似文献
135.
Yang Zhou Shuo Wang Zhong Li Ya Zhou 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(10):1855-1872
In this paper, we propose a factorial fuzzy programming (FFP) approach for planning water resources management systems. The conventional fuzzy method cannot reflect the interactions among uncertain system parameters nor quantify their interactive effects. This may lead to important interrelationships among system parameters being neglected in systems analysis, and the derived decisions may not be robust enough to support the management under uncertainties. The objective of this study is to develop an FFP approach to deal with such interactive uncertainties. Factorial analysis (FA) was integrated with the fuzzy technique to quantify the effects of multiple fuzzy modeling parameters on the system performance and to reveal their implicit interrelationships. A flood-diversion planning case was studied to illustrate the applicability of the FFP approach. The individual and interactive effects of fuzzy parameters on the system objectives were evaluated. The influential effects were identified and the implicit interrelationships within influential interactions were revealed. 相似文献
136.
Local opposition against high-voltage grids: public responses to agency-caused science–policy trolls
Øystein Aas Marte Qvenild Line Camilla Wold Gerd Blindheim Jacobsen Audun Ruud 《Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning》2017,19(4):347-359
High-voltage (hV) transmission grids are projects of societal importance that potentially have controversial social and environmental impacts. Former research shows that public opposition is sparked by the perception of negative local impacts and unjust concessionary processes. In this paper, we complement these perspectives by assessing the institutional practices of the regulatory agencies in dealing with scientific uncertainties. The regulatory agencies’ ‘ways of doing things’ are often designed to serve policy and management needs. A critical point is that the demarcation between scientifically based facts, values and assessments is often blurred in the decision-making process. This paper draws on two Norwegian case studies to investigate how the regulatory agencies dealt with (1) electromagnetic fields and health risks and (2) overhead lines versus sea cables. We argue that ambiguities and uncertainties that arise in the hV transmission line processes create ‘trolls’, and we explore how the local inhabitants and affected stakeholders in the two cases responded to these and how it triggered further opposition. By investigating how and why trolls appear and are handled, we conclude by discussing how public opposition related to hV transmission grids may be reduced – and how some ‘trolls’ may crack. 相似文献
137.
Paolo C. Campo Guillermo A. Mendoza Philippe Guizol Teodoro R. Villanueva Franois Bousquet 《Journal of environmental management》2009,90(11):3607-3615
This paper describes the experiences and lessons learned in applying a multi-agent systems (MAS) model to study the dynamics and complex interactions among stakeholders in the management of community-based forests. The MAS model is developed using the companion modelling (ComMod) approach, which allows for a collaborative development of the model between the stakeholders and researchers. This approach involves the development and application of role-playing games (RPGs) and computer simulation as learning tools and to validate the model. Inferences are drawn from the learning and negotiation processes that the stakeholders and researchers underwent in the collaborative development of the MAS model. These processes ultimately led to the development of a collaborative resource management plan. The approach and the MAS model were applied to a case study involving a community-based forest managed by three villages in the island of Palawan, Philippines. 相似文献
138.
Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kassa H Campbell B Sandewall M Kebede M Tesfaye Y Dessie G Seifu A Tadesse M Garedew E Sandewall K 《Journal of environmental management》2009,90(2):1004-1013
We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels. 相似文献
139.
The digital workshop: exploring the use of interactive and immersive visualisation tools in participatory planning 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Salter JD Campbell C Journeay M Sheppard SR 《Journal of environmental management》2009,90(6):2090-2101
This paper examines the emerging role of digital tools in a collaborative planning process for British Columbia's Bowen Island. The goal of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 'digital workshop', combining the interactive CommunityViz tool with the immersive lab facilities at the Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP). In support of the larger community planning process, two 3-h workshops were held at CALP's Landscape Immersion Lab. To facilitate collaborative exploration, the interactive landscape visualisation and real-time data analysis capabilities of CommunityViz were employed to illustrate the possible outcomes of residential density policies for Bowen Island's Snug Cove community. The community planning workshops were structured to provide the 14 semi-expert participants with the opportunity to explore and discuss the contentious residential density components of the draft Snug Cove Village Plan. The abilities to dynamically explore the visualisations of the planning proposals, and to see real-time changes in indicator metrics were considered particularly informative, and appeared to increase participants' understanding of the plan. Written and verbal responses indicated, however, that there was insufficient time to examine and interact with the information during the workshop, suggesting a need to examine in greater depth how and when these tools might best be employed in collaborative settings. Current and future research relating to this project is discussed. 相似文献
140.
This paper examines the process and outcome of participatory methods for stakeholder identification. We used focus group style participatory methodology to engage local residents in identifying key sub-groups relevant to conservation in Boumba, Niger. We then conducted a quantitative pictorial recognition study to measure the diversity of local useful plant knowledge across groups. The community identified six gender and age-class groupings relevant to the study. The effect of a participant''s gender, socially-defined age class or the interaction of the two factors on the number of plants recognized varied by plant use. Medicinal plant knowledge was highest among elders. Food plant knowledge of food plants increased with age for women only. Where as the interaction of age and gender was strongest on fodder plant knowledge, where mid-aged men scored highest. We reflect on the impact that heterogeneity of local botanical knowledge has on our understanding of local natural resource use and the strengths of using a participatory approach to identifying the stakeholder groups which underlie this heterogeneity. 相似文献