高风险系统组织因素分类与绩效评价

在收集以组织绩效评价、人的可靠性和人误分析为目的的两类组织因素分类的基础上,结合问卷调查,并依据建立的概念上的组织因素分类框架,从组织的目标和战略、组织结构、资源、规程、管理功能、培训、交流、组织文化等方面确立组织因素分类指标,基本克服了传统的组织因素分类缺陷。同时,依据组织因素的分类,考虑到组织绩效评价的复杂性和不确定性,采用模糊决策方法对某组织的绩效进行评价,识别出该组织现存的主要缺陷:组织管理方面的问题以及组织的结构设计不太合理等问题。     

Social capital accumulation and the role of the researcher: An example of a transdisciplinary visioning process for the future of agriculture in Europe

Transdisciplinarity is a demanding paradigm, considered by many in the literature as the way to move forward in terms of science and policy integration. In this paper we present the example of a tailored transdisciplinary (TD) process to tackle a key topic of European policy – the future of agriculture at the regional level. This phased process was followed in seven regions across Europe and involved the co-construction of future visions, engaging both researchers and a range of relevant stakeholders. This paper presents results based on a critical reflection made by researchers and stakeholders in Portugal and Scotland, throughout the participatory process. These results provide insights into the roles and responsibilities of researchers and stakeholders in TD processes. One main conclusion is that accumulated social capital can be essential to initiate and maintain a TD process, and requires a commitment between the research community and the surrounding society. Our analysis demonstrates the challenges of implementing a TD process within the temporal frame/boundaries of a research project and the added value of having transdisciplinarity as part of the long term strategy of a research group, not just one part of a specific project. Not acknowledging this may lead to disappointment and fatigue amongst those connecting with researchers. We also found that researchers position themselves differently in a TD process depending on their soft skills, experience and knowledge about transdisciplinarity; hence we call attention to the need to work more explicitly with these skills in the research environment and to present this concept in an early stage of researcher training, if better transdisciplinarity is to be achieved.     

PRA和GIS在小尺度土地利用变化研究中的应用

论文借助PRA,结合实地测量和GIS,以宁夏南部山区的上黄村为例对小尺度区域的土地利用变化进行了初步研究。重建和恢复了其25年来各时期的土地利用过程,绘制了上黄试区不同时期的土地利用空间变化图,并对其土地利用的数量及空间变化进行了分析。结果表明:在研究期内,从数量上看,耕地和林地变化最为显著,年变化率分别达到了8.0%和9.2%;从空间分布变化来看,主要表现为耕地向林地、草地及园地转变。     

Adaptive Management on Public Lands in the United States: Commitment or Rhetoric?

Adaptive management (AM) is the process of implementing land management activities in incremental steps and evaluating whether desired outcomes are being achieved at each step. If conditions deviate substantially from predictions, management activities are adjusted to achieve the desired outcomes. Thus, AM is a kind of monitoring, an activity that land management agencies have done poorly for the most part, at least with respect to ground-based monitoring. Will they do better in the future? We doubt it unless costs, personnel, and future commitment are seriously addressed. Because ecosystem responses to management impacts can ripple into the distant future, monitoring programs that address only the near future (e.g., 10–20 years), are probably unreliable for making statements about resource conditions in the distant future. We give examples of this. Feedback loops between ecosystem response and adjustment of management actions are often broken, and therefore AM again fails. Successful ground-based monitoring must address these and other points that agencies commonly ignore. As part of the solution, publics distrustful of agency activities should be included in any monitoring program.     

矿山企业安全管理交互式模糊综合评价决策支持系统设计

安全管理是企业管理的重要组成部分，是实现安全生产的有力保证。决策支持系统是实现安全管理定性与定量分析有机结台的有效手段。从建立实用的安全管理信息系统的角度出发，详细论述了系统分析与系统设计的思想、方法、内容和步骤，阐述了开发矿山企业安全管理交互式模糊综合评价决策支持系统（SMDSS）的意义，介绍了SMDSS的基本结构和基本功能，描述了SMDSS的综合评价机理，并给出了SMDSS的人机交互式评价过程。     

基于博弈论的安全决策信息融合

安全信息融合的研究涉及多源信息的表示、内在联系和运动规律的研究。冗余和互补的多源信息在融合系统中不可避免地存在着相互竞争和协同作用,因而多源融合系统中的信息冲突与合作的分析成为信息融合理论研究中的核心与实质问题。博弈理论对冲突和合作局势分析与研究提供了一种定量工具,其研究成果成功地解释了多局中人在“交互决策”过程如何构造博弈的“均衡点”,以及“均衡点”所具有的各种特性。笔者在研究了博弈理论的基础上,以博弈论的观点和方法解决安全信息融合系统冲突信息环境下的融合系统决策问题,并建立了相应的模型并应用了融合算法。     

BOOK REVIEWS

This study focuses on the technology purchasing decisions of a mid-sized firm (500 employees) that increase the energy efficiency of its computing systems while meeting its business objectives. For example, if company growth requires implementation of a more robust and up-to-date customer tracking system and includes hiring 10 new employees, what course should be followed to ensure a reduction in energy consumption as well as the achievement of company business goals? Should the company purchase a couple of additional servers with limited capacity for growth or should the company replace 20 aging rack servers with six state-of-the-art servers for consolidation and the hosting of virtual machines? And should the company supply the new employees with new cathode ray tube (CRT) monitors or recycle some that have been in storage? There are several alternatives that the firm can use to achieve its goals. This paper evaluates four energy efficiency technologies with respect to their impact on the reduction in energy consumption as well as internal organisational processes and human aspects. A proposed research effort is expected to contribute to energy efficiency literature by capturing adoption decisions from a market – end-user – perspective, and the outcome of this study is proposed to give insights to energy efficiency programme managers into designing more accurate energy efficiency programmes.     

Participatory GIS for strengthening transboundary marine governance in SIDS

In this paper we explore the challenges involved in engaging the full range of stakeholders needed for effective marine resource management in the transboundary Grenadine Islands shared by the small island developing States (SIDS) of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. The study describes the ways stakeholders were engaged in the development of participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), both in terms of the research approach (process) and the final geodatabase (product); it illustrates how the approach provides a practical means to strengthen aspects of marine governance, particularly in a SIDS context. We found that PGIS can provide a foundation for ecosystem‐based transboundary marine governance. The advantages of this approach are two‐fold: it provides the fullest possible range of information as input for the management of marine resources and it engages the stakeholders. This engagement takes several forms: capacity to participate in research; ownership of information produced; increased stakeholder understanding; empowerment through access to information; capacity to interact with other stakeholders for information and problem‐solving; and competence to participate in actual governance processes. Lastly, we discuss considerations for other practitioners contemplating using PGIS, particularly those working in similar resource‐limited SIDS environments.     

New tools in local energy planning: experimenting with scenarios,public participation and environmental assessment

This article presents a model for local energy planning and its application in a full-scale experiment in a Swedish municipality. The model is based on legal requirement, research findings and standards of good practice and includes a combination of analytical and procedural tools intended to support rational decision-making: external scenarios, a citizens’ panel, life cycle analysis and qualitative environmental assessment (EA). The application of the model indicates that the decision-support tools selected can give several new and valuable inputs to local energy planning, such as local knowledge and values through citizen dialogue and comprehensive EAs. However, the experiment also shows that there are several challenges involved in applying the tools, for example, it is difficult to get citizens and the industry to participate and that it is complicated to combine several different tools for decision-making into a single planning process. Moreover, the experiences from the application suggest that the model for local energy planning show great potential but needs to be improved before it can be used as a standard of good practice.