基于地表沉陷控制的膏体充填材料的性能优化研究

充填材料性能是充填开采控制地表沉陷的一个重要因素,为克服传统充填材料性能优化试验耗时长、成本高、人为误差较大的缺点,探索将传统正交试验与模糊决策相结合进行充填材料性能优化。基于L9(33)正交试验,确定了S1~S55组充填材料性能优选方案。在综合分析充填材料性能影响因素的基础上,建立充填材料性能优化指标体系,构建AHP-FUZZY模糊综合优选模型对方案进行比选,并分析了正交试验中各因素水平变化对最优方案的敏感性。结果表明:膏体充填材料性能最优方案为“S4”即水泥含量15%,灰矸比1∶2,质量浓度75%,决策结果与试验结果相符,且“灰矸比”对充填材料性能优化的敏感性程度最高,在实际膏体充填开采中要严格控制粉煤灰和煤矸石掺量。     

基于案例推理的突发环境事件应急决策模型

突发环境事件不确定性高、演化过程复杂,给企业及政府的应急工作带来很大的困难,故如何提高应急决策的质量,是相关应急工作的重点之一。为了增强以往经验的可用性,利用本体模型进行案例的存储,根据情景构成要素提取方法对情景进行多维的空间表达,在此基础上优化情景匹配算法,实现基于情景的应急决策。最后,通过突发环境事件实例应用,验证该方法能够快速建立实例与本体模型之间的关系,提高知识的可用性和共享性,实现情景的多维表达,进而满足“情景-应对”的应急决策要求。     

The challenge of biased evidence in conservation

Efforts to tackle the current biodiversity crisis need to be as efficient and effective as possible given chronic underfunding. To inform decision-makers of the most effective conservation actions, it is important to identify biases and gaps in the conservation literature to prioritize future evidence generation. We used the Conservation Evidence database to assess the state of the global literature that tests conservation actions for amphibians and birds. For the studies in the database, we investigated their spatial and taxonomic extent and distribution across biomes, effectiveness metrics, and study designs. Studies were heavily concentrated in Western Europe and North America for birds and particularly for amphibians, and temperate forest and grassland biomes were highly represented relative to their percentage of land coverage. Studies that used the most reliable study designs—before-after control-impact and randomized controlled trials—were the most geographically restricted and scarce in the evidence base. There were negative spatial relationships between the numbers of studies and the numbers of threatened and data-deficient species worldwide. Taxonomic biases and gaps were apparent for amphibians and birds—some entire orders were absent from the evidence base—whereas others were poorly represented relative to the proportion of threatened species they contained. Metrics used to evaluate effectiveness of conservation actions were often inconsistent between studies, potentially making them less directly comparable and evidence synthesis more difficult. Testing conservation actions on threatened species outside Western Europe, North America, and Australasia should be prioritized. Standardizing metrics and improving the rigor of study designs used to test conservation actions would also improve the quality of the evidence base for synthesis and decision-making.     

Making Collaborative Watershed Management Work: The Confluence of State and Regional Initiatives

Initiatives in the Neponset, Ipswich, and Sudbury-Assabet-Concord watersheds highlight how watershed-scale innovation in engaging nongovernment participants is influenced, but not dominated, by the statewide program, the Massachusetts Watershed Initiative. The presence or absence of three elements—external support, process, and issue—and the order in which they occur, shape the viability of collaborative watershed-scale management initiatives. External support includes providing personnel or funding from outside an initiative. Process is the interaction among individuals undertaking watershed-wide policy development and/or implementation. An issue is an attention-requiring concern, vital to a watershed, that can most effectively be addressed by a coordinated strategy among different parties. A process generated by an issue is sustainable and amenable to enhancement through external support. The contribution of external support is most apparent when outside assistance is provided after an issue has crystallized into clear problem needs that can be addressed through specific research projects or implementation activities. Process is central in shaping issues, utilizing external support, and generating management results. The outcomes of voluntary processes in the three watershed initiatives highlight how the evolution of the Massachusetts Watershed Initiative leads to, and depends upon, the development of watershed-scale initiatives.     

Building the Capacity of Grassroots Conservation Organizations to Conduct Participatory Evaluation

Stakeholder participation has become a key factor in the success of grassroots conservation and natural resource management programs. Yet the majority of program evaluations are conducted by external consultants for the purposes of accountability, rather than program improvement. Too often, systematic evaluations of conservation programs are not conducted at all. The objective of this study was to build the capacity of a grassroots conservation organization to conduct participatory evaluation, involving project stakeholders in the design, implementation, and use of evaluation. The study applied a conceptual model for participatory evaluation to the Wildlife Clubs of Kenya (WCK), the largest grassroots conservation program for youth in Africa, involving more than one million youth since 1968. Seven trainings in participatory evaluation were conducted with WCK staff, teachers, and community members. The 120 participants, representing nine WCK regions with 800 clubs, showed a significant increase in attitudes and knowledge regarding evaluation, as reflected by mean test scores before and after training. To institutionalize evaluation at WCK, existing organizational practices were assessed and used as a foundation for developing an evaluation system. Based on club competitions, a new evaluation initiative was launched called the WCK Incentive Program. Participants in all seven workshops identified indicators and sources of evidence for this evaluation system, which now serves as a basis for rewarding outstanding performance in WCK. This study revealed the importance of incentives for evaluation, the need to build on existing structures to promote organizational learning, and the necessity for the conservation community to commit resources to capacity building in participatory evaluation.     

小城镇突发公共事件应急决策系统的研究

近年来,突发公共事件的应急研究是研究热点,但对小城镇却缺少应有的关注和重视.本文剖析了当前小城镇突发公共事件应急管理存在的弊端,简要介绍了小城镇突发公共事件应急决策系统的设计与实现,包括应急预案、历史灾情库和法律法规库三大功能.着重论述了小城镇突发公共事件应急流程和预案的框架要素,并分析了应急决策系统与小城镇应急管理体制的融合机制问题.     

KNOWLEDGE UTILIZATION IN WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS RELATED TO DESICCATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of scientific knowledge in environmental policy making is an important topic. However, the relation between knowledge producers and policy makers is not a straightforward producer-user relationship. The development of a national desiccation policy in the Netherlands and the implementation of desiccation plans in local situations are used as a case study to investigate the knowledge policy relationship. Three theoretical explanations were used to analyze this case: a difference between the cultures of producers and users; a different rationality of the policy making and research processes; and processes of social construction of problem definitions which imply that different knowledge stocks are used depending on the framing of the policy problem. Emergence of the policy issue at the national level is demonstrated to develop in close interaction between knowledge producers and policy makers, while the interactions at the local level were more based on integration of expert knowledge through personal expertise and closely tied to the development of management plans. This case study thus reveals a difference between general knowledge supporting measures at the national policy level and the way in which specific knowledge is applied in local cases. Therefore more attention should be paid to the translation of policy problems from rather high levels of political authority to the conceptualization at lower management levels. A final conclusion is that knowledge use in Dutch desiccation policy can be understood by pointing to multiple theoretical perspectives. The rational actor model and a construc-tivist perspective turned out to be especially useful in explaining the different ways knowledge was used at the national and the local level.     

LIMITS ON THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAME OF REFERENCE IN WATER RESOURCE DECISION-MAKING1

Study of water resource decision-making in Massachusetts demonstrates the existence of many institutional constraints such as the established fee system for consulting engineers, the funding of certain agencies, the institutionalization of equity concerns, overrepresentation of interests, and incompatibility of agency goals. These institutional constraints are attributable in part to certain broadly-based value-orientations such as the American pragmatic tradition. However, various lines of evidence indicate that these constraints are less important than other factors in the etiology of decisional outcomes. The outcomes of the decision processes were found to be at variance with the decisions studied, a fact leading to the conclusion that choice of decisions for study should be given more attention. The authors conclude that institutional constraints are important if one is interested in studying how decisions are made, but that what actually happens in the long run cannot be easily ascertained by studying either institutions or the decision-making process. They suggest the need for more research utilizing the incremental theories of Carl Lindblom and the side-effect theories of Albert O. Hirschman.     

城市防震减灾的决策分析

研究城市抗震减灾的目的是为了给城市的抗震防灾工作提供相应的行为依据。这些工作依赖于不同的决策分析方法和相应的城市基础数据。本文综合了几种常见的决策方案，建立了相应的决策分析方法；分析探讨了防震减灾决策综合支持系统的特点和内容。     

安全投资决策优化模型

安全投资决策是安全生产决策的重要内容。企业生产系统的安全投资 ,是生产成本的组成部分 ,合理地安排投资项目 ,可以最大限度地提高企业的安全效果和经济效益。当安全投资额度不能完全满足投资需求时 ,不同的投资组合导致系统安全效果差异较大。分析了生产系统的安全效果与费用的关系 ,根据系统的安全需要确定投资项目费用 ,将安全投资项目通过系统安全要素与安全效果直接挂钩 ,建立了安全投资决策的目标规划模型 ,确定了合理的安全投资组合 ,使有限的安全投资取得最佳的安全效果。通过一个案例验证了模型的有效性 ,可作为企业确定安全投资项目和政府有关部门进行安全管理的决策依据。