Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

The nature and frequency of social interactions among free-living prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster)

Hypotheses relating the behavior of voles to their population cycles often assume that the rate of social interaction increases with population density. To test this assumption, we examined the frequency of social interactions in a population of prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) over a 7-year period. In addition, we characterized space use by resident animals, patterns of visitation by nonresidents to nests, and participants in social interactions. Social groups within the population typically displayed little overlap in their use of space, even at high population densities. Nevertheless, nonresidents, particularly wandering males, were captured as visitors at nests. The number of visits per social group did not increase in a simple linear manner with population density and was particularly variable when there were fewer than 100 animals/ha. At such times, more single females and fewer pairs received visits from males than expected based on the frequency of occurrence of these groups in the population; a similar pattern was noted during periods of high population density (≥100 animals/ha) but the comparisons failed to reach statistical significance. Furthermore, at high population density, more communal groups received visits from females than expected. Patterns of visitation to communal groups were influenced by the number of adult male residents (winter only), but not by the number of adult female residents or presence of philopatric female offspring. These data indicate that the frequency of social contact in prairie voles does not increase linearly with population density and is influenced by the spacing and possible mate-guarding behavior of resident animals. Received: 7 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 16 May 1998     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

Coordinative Development in Population,Resources and Environment—China's Central Concern in Developing Science and Technology

Abstract

Population, resources and environment constitute the basis for economic and social advances. Their coordinative development is the key factor for the continuous, stable and harmonious development of economy and society. China is a developing country which needs to mobilize the whole society to coordinate among population, resources and environment and to keep publicity and research in pace so as to deepen people's understanding and improve the methods of achieving this coordination.     

Burrowing bird's decline driven by EIA over-use

Modifications to ecosystems often lead to externalities that can be assigned an economic value and traded in ecosystem service markets. One such value may include the provisioning of nest sites for organisms that would otherwise be ousted from the surrounding cultural landscape, such as the sand martin (Riparia riparia), small passerine utilizing river bank rippings when available. The studied sand martin population was initially characterized as relying heavily on human activities for habitat, as extensive river regulation caused the relocation of 97% of Czech sand martins to man-made habitats, most commonly sandpits and gravel-sandpits. The socioeconomic changes and strict implementation of the EIA law had further detrimental effects on this species, which already adjusted to the human-dominated landscape, ousting it for a second time from its key nesting habitats, causing closure 86% of sandpits with only occasional quarrying and closure of 47% of those with regular small-scale regular quarrying. Meanwhile, large-scale quarries remained nearly unaffected. Conversion of any actively quarried site to that with vertical slopes present, but with quarrying absent, led to the progressive disappearance of sand martin colonies in 73% of sandpits with ceased occasional quarrying and in 87% of sandpits with ceased regular small-scale quarrying. The sharp decrease in the number of nest-sites of a bird protected by law is a gloomy result of the hypertrophied business regulation (EIA is estimated to cost € 970 million annually in the E.U. alone) aimed, paradoxically, to support the environment.     

四川省人口增长与主要生态资源承载力研究

本文以个体生活资源基本需求为计算单位,探讨四川省主要生态资源能承载多少人口,预测四川省人口发展与生态资源的关系.根据本文给出的计算结果,四川省耕地费源已经饱和,其复耕事较高尚能满足人口需求;牧草场资源超载,面临荒漠化威胁;森林资源较为丰富,能够满足人口发展需求;水资源与人口关系富足有余,但工业污水排放和上游水源保护仍需给予关注.面对这一现实,四川省要进一步推行控制人口增长的生育政策;保护现有耕地资源,发展生态农业;合理规划草场资源,科学发展畜牧业;合理开发森林蕴藏资源,坚持合理采伐;加强水利设施建设,防治水污染,确保水资源可持续利用.     

Review of Recent Ecotoxicological Studies on Cladocerans

Cladocerans have been widely used as the bioassay organisms in evaluating the impact of different toxic substances. Literature survey during the last 10 years revealed that cladoceran ecotoxicological research has been in an exponential phase constituting nearly 10% of publications on this group. Many studies have considered typically planktonic taxa such as Daphnia magna, D. pulex, Moina macrocopa, M. micrura and Ceriodaphania dubia. Experimental data on toxicity tests, to a lesser extent, are also available for littoral-benthic genera such as Simocephalus, Macrothrix and Alona. Most toxicity tests are limited to the derivation of median lethal concentrations of various durations but mostly at 24 or 48 h. Studies related to the evaluation of changes in the life history variables of cladocerans as a result of sublethal exposure to toxic substances are not many, but gaining importance. The common toxic substances used in the cladoceran toxicity tests appear to be heavy metals, pesticides and a few natural toxins such as cyanotoxins. We review here the effect of different toxic substances on cladocerans based on both the field and the laboratory studies from an ecotoxicology point of view. Suggestions for the future cladoceran ecotoxicology are also commented on.     

Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an evaluation technique that systematically identifies the flows and stocks of materials within predefined spatial and temporal boundaries. In this paper, the steel resources in Korea are investigated using dynamic MFA. Iron ore and steel scrap are added as raw material components during the production processes of steel, which is then used in a variety of product groups such as construction products, transportation equipment, machinery/metal products, electrical/electronic devices, and other products through fabrication and manufacturing processes. When such product groups are discarded, they are either recycled or landfilled. With consideration for the lifetimes of various product groups in conjunction with steel resource flows in Korea, dynamic MFA is conducted on the flows of steel stock change and annual scrap generation. By 2020, these two flows are expected to increase by as much as 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2008, with transportation equipment, in particular, envisaged to experience high growth. At the current recycling rate, however, it will be hard to meet future scrap demand. According to the scenario analysis, 100% of this future scrap demand can be supplied domestically if the recycling rate is increased to over 70% for all product groups, except construction products and transportation equipment, which already have high recycling rates. By 2020, the reduction in scrap importation costs is projected to offer a financial gain of 2.3 billion dollars.     

人力资本流动对地区经济增长差距的影响

由于具有不同教育背景和不同技术条件的劳动力对流入地经济增长的推动肯定是不相同的．因而我们有必要分别考察具有不同人力资本含量的劳动力对流入地经济增长的贡献。本文引入了一个包含异质型流动人口变量的函数。并对1985—1990年期间我国分地区流动人口的素质状况对地区经济增长的影响进行了研究。研究结果显示，在此期间．仅流动人口中的智力资本就为我国的经济增长带来了大约72．5亿元国民生产总值的价值；而分地区的研究结果显示．流动人口中的智力资本也极大地促进了东部地区和西部地区的经济增长。但是，对中部来说，在此期间的流动人口不管是从对劳动力数量的增长贡献上。还是从对本地区人力资本存量的增长贡献上，都对本地区经济增长产生了消极的影响。     

Driver licensing,motor-vehicle crashes,and moving violations among older adults

IntroductionDriving is important for well-being among older adults, but age-related conditions are associated with driving reduction or cessation and increased crash risk for older drivers. Our objectives were to describe population-based rates of older drivers’ licensing and per-driver rates of crashes and moving violations.Methods: We examined individual-level statewide driver licensing, crash, and traffic citation data among all New Jersey drivers aged ≥ 65 and a 35- to 54-year-old comparison group during 2010–2014. Rate ratios (RR) of crashes and moving violations were estimated using Poisson regression.Results: Overall, 86% of males and 71% of females aged ≥ 65 held a valid driver’s license. Older drivers had 27% lower per-driver crash rates than middle-aged drivers (RR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.73, 0.74)—with appreciable differences by sex—but 40% higher fatal crash rates (RR: 1.40 [1.24, 1.58]). Moving violation rates among older drivers were 72% lower than middle-aged drivers (RR: 0.28 [0.28, 0.28]).Conclusion: The majority of older adults are licensed, with substantial variation by age and sex. Older drivers have higher rates of fatal crashes but lower rates of moving violations compared with middle-aged drivers.Practical applications: Future research is needed to understand the extent to which older adults drive and to identify opportunities to further reduce risk of crashes and resultant injuries among older adults.