Application of a spatial meta-population model with stochastic parameters to the management of the invasive grass Nassella trichotoma in North Canterbury, New Zealand

Optimising the management of invasive plants requires the identification of the population size outcomes for alternative management strategies. Mathematical models can be useful tools for making such management strategy comparisons. In this paper we develop a generic landscape meta-population model and apply it to the weedy grass, Nassella trichotoma, an invasive species occupying approximately 800 land parcels, predominantly pastoral farms, in the Hurunui district, North Canterbury, New Zealand. Empirical evidence reveals that this meta-population is currently stable (at a median density of 6 plants ha⁻¹) under a community strategy requiring manual removal (termed ‘grubbing’) of plants annually from all land parcels. Reduction in population size requires an alternative management strategy. Field data, collected over a 12 year period, were used to provide stochastic parameter values for land parcel size, carrying capacity, rates of local population growth and grubbing.The model reveals that at steady state, the most significant contribution to population growth on a land parcel comes from within the land parcel itself; the expected annual per capita growth on an individual land parcel is 4 orders of magnitude greater than the expected annual contribution from plants arising from other land parcels. This result implies that many of the farms currently supporting N. trichotoma may pose little or no threat to, nor are threatened themselves by, other farms infested by the weed. However, the steady state distribution (of the weed's population density) was sensitive to the spread rate, revealing a need for data on this process. It was also sensitive to how any increase in the grubbing rate is distributed; increasing it via a uniform distribution U(0, 1) where all rates between 0 and 100% year⁻¹ are equally probable did not affect the steady state, whereas increasing the rates via the uniform distribution U(0.25, 0.75) resulted in fewer farms with high population densities. In general the model provides a basis for exploring the effects of a wide range of alternative grubbing strategies on population growth in N. trichotoma.     

Modelling llama population development under environmental and market constraints in the Bolivian highlands

Changes in the size of animal populations over time are mainly determined by demographic and environmental factors. Livestock population dynamics are additionally influenced by harvesting decisions taken by herders. In Bolivia, not much is known about current llama husbandry and the main influencing factors determining population sizes. We collected data on demography, environmental factors and market values affecting the current and future llama population in three different regions in Bolivia. We generated a population model and assessed the future development of the llama population including environmental factors (rangeland carrying capacity, disturbance phenomena), herd structure and dynamics, and economic market demands. We calibrated and validated the llama model on the basis of 20-year data sets of the regions of Oruro, Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model calibration by means of the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm yielded a model efficiency of 0.94. For model validation, however, the simulation slightly overestimated the observed llama population yielding model efficiencies of 0.91 and 0.87 for Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model outcomes were most sensitive to death and birth rates of juveniles and death rate of females compared to environmental or other demographic factors. Population trajectories approached an overall carrying capacity for Oruro, Potosi and La Paz of 8.8 × 10⁵, 9.1 × 10⁵, and 9.0 × 10⁵ llama individuals after 100 years of simulation. Hence, detailed monitoring of demographic, environmental, and economic factors can improve predictions of llama population development over time. Further management should focus on improving birth rates and lowering female mortality through providing supplemental food and shelters against the harsh environmental conditions of the Andean highlands.     

北京山区典型流域不同海拔椴树种群的空间点格局分析

采用点格局分析法对不同海拔的椴树(Tilia miqueliana Maxim.)种群进行分布格局及其种间关系进行了研究。结果表明:整体上群落内以中龄树个体数为最多,小树次之,成年树个体最少。随着海拔的增加可以看出:小树(d≤5 cm)随着海拔的增加而减少,中树(5 cm20 cm)的规律不明显;椴树种群的空间分布格局与空间尺度(25 m内)有密切关系,在较小的空间尺度上倾向于非随机分布,具有明显的空间相关性;在>15 m或25m的某临界尺度时却倾向于随机分布,同时空间关联变得微弱。随着海拔的增加,各物种聚集分布的尺度有逐渐减小的趋势。种间关系随着海拔的增加,物种间的正相关尺度有增加的趋势。     

鲎的保护与族群恢复之研究

从1997年开始在金门进行鲎的保护与族群恢复之研究，内容包括人工培育稚鲎、成鲎引入野外产卵复育试验、人工栖息地复育试验。同时，关于鲎的地理亲缘关系的研究，对探讨西太平洋地区生物多样性成因及三棘鲎的保护遗传问题都具有相当的价值。     

Towards more detailed determination of third party impact on risk on natural gas pipelines: Influence of population density

The paper presents a refined way to quantify the effects of third party interference on risk that is posed on people by transmission pipelines for natural gas. The main focus is set on the influence of population density on risk. Using the interdisciplinary approach, the presented study combines the knowledge from relevant risk assessment recommendations, physical consequences of hazardous events, existing history databases of hazardous event frequencies and urban planning. A quantitative boundary between two most populated types of area was established. A flexible risk coefficient was determined for a suburban type of populated area that is dependent on average population density. Consequently, a new approach for determination of a hazard distance from the pipeline and area boundaries for calculation of average population density was presented. This differs from the established methods described in some guidelines, but is based on results of applied quantitative risk assessment. The final result is more accurate determination of risk levels in suburban areas. Described methods may serve as a supplement to the existing models for quantitative risk assessment on pipelines used in natural gas transportation and may be used by pipeline operators as well as policy- and decision makers.     

All-offspring dispersal in a tropical mammal with resource defense polygyny

In polygynous mammals, males are usually responsible for gene flow while females are predominantly philopatric. However, there is evidence that in a few mammalian species female offspring may disperse to avoid breeding with their father when male tenure exceeds female age at maturity. We investigated offspring dispersal and local population structure in the Neotropical bat Lophostoma silvicolum. The mating system of this species is resource defense polygyny, with the resource being active termite nests, excavated by single males, which are then joined by females. We combined field observations of 14 harems during 3 years and data about the genetic structure within and between these groups, calculated with one mitochondrial locus and nine nuclear microsatellite loci. The results show that both male and female offspring disperse before maturity. In addition, we estimated life span of excavated termite nests and the duration they were occupied by the same male. Our findings suggest that long male tenure of up to 30 months is indeed a likely cause for the observed dispersal by female offspring that can reach maturity at a low age of 6 months. We suggest that dispersal by offspring of both sexes may occur quite frequently in polygynous tropical bats and thus generally may be more common in mammals than previously assumed.     

A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.Inspired by the same-shape distribution and rate-summation approach for modeling insect development, a similar approach for modeling insect reproduction under variable temperature is developed. This new same-shape reproduction distribution model incorporates individual variation in reproduction capability, as well as the effects of RWA age, temperature and plant-growth stage. Consequently, the same-shape reproduction distribution model replaces the simple age-specific fecundities in Leslie matrix model. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to introduce survival analysis to simulation modeling in entomology and ecology and also the first to integrate our newly developed same-shape reproduction distribution model into application.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics at manakin leks: reconciling lek traditionality with male turnover

Leks, display grounds where males congregate and females visit to copulate, are typically traditional in location, despite often high turnover of individual males. How leks can persist in face of male turnover is not well understood, in part due to a lack of detailed field data allowing for a clear understanding of lek dynamics. We followed the fate of individual males at 11 to 15 leks of the blue-crowned manakin Lepidothrix coronata across four breeding seasons to gain insights on how leks are formed and changed in space and time. Between years, leks were traditional in location despite changes in territory ownership due to male disappearance and recruitment. New males were equally likely to recruit by taking over existing territories or by establishing new territories. Recruitment was influenced by age, as recruits were more likely to be adults than subadults. Lek size did not affect the probabilities of a male recruiting or persisting at a territory, and vocalization rate, a correlate of mating success in this population, did not affect male persistence. We used our field data to model changes in lek size and composition over longer periods of time (100 years) to understand how lek traditionality can be reconciled with high male turnover. Our simulations showed that leks in our population rapidly stabilize in size despite changes in territory ownership and that rates of male recruitment and disappearance compensate each other, such that leks have the potential to persist for several decades after the original males have disappeared from them.     

Assessment of the use of selected rodents in ecological monitoring

Rodents can be useful in detecting environmental impacts because they are easy to study (easy to capture and handle), they can occur in densities adequate for statistical analysis, and they are ecologically important. In this study the usefulness of rodent populations for ecological monitoring was investigated by examining the effect of variation on the possibility of detecting differences among populations of rodents on 10 trapping grids. The effects of sampling frequencies and dispersal on detecting differences in population parameters among grids was also investigated, as was the possibility of inferring population parameters from correlations with habitat data. Statistically significant differences as small as 4.3Peromyscus maniculatus/ha were detected between grids. Of 10 populations, this comprised 12% of the highest-density population and 44% of the lowest-density population. Smaller and more differences among grids were found by examining only animals surviving from previous months. Dispersal confounds detection of direct impacts to populations, especially during the breeding season. Infrequent sampling fails to detect impacts that occur between sampling periods and will indicate impacts when observed changes result from natural variation. Correlations between population parameters and habitat variables exist but should only be used in predicting, not measuring, impacts. It is concluded that some rodent populations can be used in ecological monitoring. However, intensive sampling is required to account for variation and dispersal.     

Exposure estimates to Fusarium mycotoxins through cereals intake

Mycotoxins are harmful substances produced by fungi in several commodities with a widespread presence in foodstuffs. Human exposure to mycotoxins occurs mainly by contaminated food. The quantitation of mycotoxins in cereal-based food, highly consumed by different age population, is of concern. In this survey, 159 cereal-based samples classified as wheat, maize and rice-based, have been evaluated for the occurrence of patulin, deoxynivalenol, 3-acetyl-deoxynivalenol, fusarenon-X, diacetoxyscirpenol, nivalenol, neosolaniol, HT-2, T-2 and zearalenone by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Intakes were calculated for average consumers among adults, children and infants and compared with the tolerable daily intakes (TDI). Data obtained were used to estimate the potential exposure levels. 65.4% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin and 15.7% of the analyzed samples showed co-occurrence of mycotoxin. The dietary exposure to HT-2 and T-2 toxins was estimated as 0.010 and 0.086 μg kg⁻¹ bw d⁻¹, amounting to 10% and 86% of the TDI, for adults and infants respectively. These results back up the necessity to take a vigilant attitude in order to minimize human intake of mycotoxins.