Community energy plans in Canadian cities: success and barriers in implementation

Climate change and sustainable development concerns have motivated some municipalities in Canada to develop community energy plans, which focus on energy needs at the local level for the development of efficient, economical and environmental energy systems. Five Canadian cities that were early adopters of community energy planning principles were studied to assess whether implementation has occurred and what barriers have been experienced. The cities achieved success in the implementation of energy management in municipal operations despite barriers in jurisdiction, perception of cost, communication and capacity, but energy management in the community had not been fully implemented and long-term changes were not prevalent. While reductions were made in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by municipal operations, the community's overall GHG emissions were not significantly reduced. Long-term impacts on a city's function and growth will be key if community energy planning is to significantly impact community-wide GHG emissions and energy use.     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

推进规划环评工作的实践和思考

就规划环评实施过程中普遍存在的问题提出了相应的解决方法,浅谈了对规划环境影响评价的认识及如何推进规划环境影响评价工作的体会。     

中国规划环评中协调性分析的作用

协调性分析是规划环境影响评价的重要组成部分,它的分析对象是被评价的规划草案及其相关的政策、法规、规划等。在以规划草案为评估对象的环境影响评价中,协调性分析能够起到两种作用：解释制定规划草案的“政策背景环境”,和检查规划草案是否存在资源保护、环境保护方面的缺陷和不足。这两种作用不能被截然分开。协调性分析的目的是帮助环评单位和公众更好地理解规划制定的背景,以及使规划环评针对草案的缺陷与不足提出相应的环境目标和环境保护对策。分析结果一般可以使用矩阵来表示。如果规划环评可以早期介入到规划的制定中,描述“政策背景环境”和制定可选择性方案这两个程序就可以达到协调性分析的目的．因此不再需要进行专门的协调性分析。     

An integrated assessment method of urban drainage system:A case study in Shenzhen City,China

In recent years, the urban drainage system in China is facing the dual pressure of renovation and construction. This requires that the integrated assessment for the planning and operation of the urban drainage system is obligatory. To evaluate the urban drainage system, an integrated assessment methodology based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), integrated simulation, and fuzzy assessment is established. This method is a multi-criteria decision adding app roach to the assessment of the urban drainage system comprehensively. Through the integration of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), a simple wastewater treatment plant model, and a surface water quality model, an integrated modelling system for the urban drainage system is developed and applied as a key tool for assessment. Using the established method, a case study in Shenzhen City has been implemented to evaluate and compare two urban drainage system reno vation plans, the distributed plan and the centralized plan. Because of the particularity of this case study, the established method is not applied entirely. Considering the water environ mental impact, ecological impact, technological feasibility, and economic cost, the integrated performance of the distri buted plan is better. As shown in this case study, the proposed method is found to be both effective and practical.     

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.     

装修改造对结构整体安全性影响分析

归纳了危害结构安全的主要装修改造行为,提出装修改造对结构安全性影响应以整体结构为研究对象,分析结构整体抗力的变化。以实际工程为例,对装修改造前后建筑结构进行设计复核,重点分析了建筑荷载增加、承重墙窗下墙拆除对结构安全性的影响。指出在各种装修因素综合作用下,结构承重体系发生改变,尤其是抗震薄弱构件的出现,使结构整体抗震能力大大降低。提出保证建筑结构安全性的合理化建议,对防止突发性灾害具有重要意义。     

基于网络的交通安全宣传教育研究

为了建立我国交通安全宣传教育网络平台,通过网络平台进行多形式的交通安全宣传教育。采用网站检索的方法,梳理了国内、外主要城市交通安全宣传教育网站,并从专业性、系统性、针对性、形式多样性等角度进行研究。研究发现国外交通安全网站具有分类细致、系统性强、参与互动性强等特点。因此建议我国应加快明确重点教育人群,建立系统性的、专业的、多形式的交通安全宣教内容,引入社会团体等加入宣传教育的队伍,提高全面积极参与、提高关注度。     

车人碰撞事故再现技术研究进展

车人碰撞事故再现已成为国内外研究热点,提高结果可信性为事故再现的核心。根据事故再现所需痕迹将再现方法分为6类,即"行人抛距"、"车辆制动距离"、"行人损伤"、"车辆变形"、"其他"以及"仿真"。通过分析各类方法的优缺点,提出可综合利用这些方法获得客观、可信的事故再现结果。然后探讨提高车人碰撞事故再现结果可信性的新发展方向:开发国产、高精度的事故再现软件,研究事故再现结果的不确定性问题,以及研究痕迹间关系在事故再现中的应用。而其中仿真所得事故再现结果的不确定性问题、车人碰撞事故再现区间不确定优化方法以及事故现场痕迹间关系为值得期待的新研究内容。     

An integrated approach: managing resources for post-disaster reconstruction

A lack of resources for post-disaster housing reconstruction significantly limits the prospects for successful recovery. Following the earthquake in Wenchuan, China, in May 2008, housing reconstruction was not immune to resource shortages and price inflation. Difficulties in sourcing materials and labour considerably impeded recovery. This paper provides evidence of the resourcing bottlenecks inherent in the post-Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction process. Its aim is to present an integrated planning framework for managing resources for post-disaster housing rebuilding. The results are drawn from in-field surveys that highlight the areas where stakeholders need to concentrate effort, including revising legislation and policy, enhancing capacity for rebuilding in the construction industry, strengthening the transportation network, restructuring market mechanisms, and incorporating environmental considerations into overall planning. Although the case study presented here is country-specific, it is hoped that the findings provide a basis for future research to identify resourcing constraints and solutions in other disaster contexts.