突发事件应急演练的理论思辨与实践探索

针对目前国内应急演练实效性差的问题,从演练实质、演练分类、演练与预案和应急处置实践的一致性、演练评估以及演练系统性5个方面分析国内目前制约应急演练实效性的主要因素,然后通过一个桌面演练策划实施实例,为在国内目前应急管理体制框架下和现有工作基础上如何通过先期策划提高演练效果,提供一些可借鉴的思路。在理论和实例分析基础上,发现将示范性与检验性相结合、加强现场指挥部组建与运行科目演练等措施是目前提高各级各类政府应急演练效果的有效措施。     

港口水域突发事件应急预案存在的问题与对策分析

针对港口功能的拓展和规模的扩大以及自然灾害的影响,港口水域安全面临较为严峻形势的特点,系统分析现有的港口水域突发事件应急预案在应急指挥机制、应急运行机制和应急保障力量建设等方面存在不足,根据国家和地方有关应急预案建设相关的法律法规要求,结合港口水域安全管理的特点,提出港口水域安全管理相关职能部门密切协作,建立起协作、高效的应急指挥体系、进一步完善预防预警机制、加强应急队伍建设、构建完备的应急物资装备保障体系和经费保障制度等方面的具体措施,全面加强港口水域突发事件应急处置能力建设,提高港口水域各相关部门的应急能力,为港口城市经济的发展提供安全的港口营运环境。     

生产安全事故应急预案评审存在问题及改进措施

结合工作实践对我国生产安全事故应急预案评审存在问题进行了分析,建议采用专家问卷调查法对应急预案评价要素进行修改完善,在应急预案评审中增加对生产经营单位现场审查环节。采取定性定量相结合的方式,提出了一种基于层次分析法的应急预案综合评价分级方法,简单易行,具有较强的实用性,对改进我国生产安全事故应急预案评审工作具有一定的指导意义。     

Post-conflict health reconstruction: search for a policy

Despite increasing experience in health reconstruction in societies emerging from conflict, the policy basis for investing in the development of equitable and effective health systems in the wake of war remains unsettled. Consideration of post-conflict health reconstruction is almost entirely absent in donor policies on global health. Practically by default, health programmes are seen increasingly as an element of stabilisation and security interventions in the aftermath of armed conflict. That perspective, however, lacks an evidence base and can skew health programmes towards short-term security and stabilisation goals that have a marginal impact and violate the principles of equity, non-discrimination, and quality, which are central to sound health systems and public acceptance of them. A better approach is to ground policy in legitimacy, viewing health both as a core social institution and one that, if developed according to human rights principles, including equity, non-discrimination, participation and accountability, can advance the effectiveness and the quality of governance in the emerging state.     

基于相空间重构和独立分量分析的火灾预测

利用非线性动力学的相空间重构理论和独立分量分析,结合非线性支持向量回归,提出了火灾起数时间序列预测方法。首先用时间延迟法和独立分量分析重构系统的相空间来反映火灾起数时间序列的内在变化规律,然后再用非线性支持向量回归来构建预测模型。仿真结果表明该预测方法具有较高的预测精度。     

Quantifying the unreported and unaccounted domestic and foreign commercial catch of sharks and rays in Western Australia

Reliable catch information is scarce for most sharks and rays worldwide, with almost half of the stocks considered to be Data Deficient due to limited species-specific catch statistics. Western Australia (WA) hosts a diverse number of shark and ray species, some of which are considered to be threatened with extinction at a global level. Commercial catch statistics only account for shark and ray landings. The present study used the best available information to reconstruct unaccounted and unreported catches for 47 shark and ray taxa to better understand the impact of fishing. For some species, there was good agreement between reconstructed catches and reported landings, but overall reconstructed catches were 57% higher than those derived from official statistics alone, underestimating the actual extraction level for many species. The reconstructed catch time series provide the basis for the assessment of all species of sharks and rays captured in WA, including protected species that interact with commercial and recreational fisheries.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01495-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

基于禀赋与压力的城市环境综合分区理论与方法研究

环境综合分区是城市环境总体规划的主要任务和落实资源合理利用与生态环境保护空间约束的重要手段.基于资源环境禀赋和压力的环境综合分区理论与方法,在生态功能分区和大气环境、水环境、水资源、土地资源分区基础上,提出城市环境综合分区二级区划方案,以大连市为例进行实证研究.根据综合分区方案,针对资源环境问题和发展现状,细化生态保护红线及产业空间准入线,引导城市资源利用与环境保护,更好地指导城市建设与产业发展.     

基于Pc-Crash的车辆侧滑事故再现方法

为准确再现车辆侧滑事故,基于Pc-Crash软件,提出一种分步再现事故的方法。该方法首先仿真事故车辆侧滑运动,获得侧滑车辆碰撞前瞬间运动状态参数;然后定义新仿真以再现侧滑车辆与事故其他参与者的碰撞;重复此2步骤,以确保仿真中痕迹与事故中痕迹最相符合。最后就一例车辆侧滑后与过往车辆发生碰撞的事故,演示该分步再现方法各步骤的实现途径。结果显示,利用Pc-Crash软件分步再现车辆侧滑事故,能较为容易地控制再现过程,保证仿真中痕迹与现实情况的一致性。     

Recognising interdependence and defining multi-level governance in city sustainability plans

Abstract

This paper examines the nature of the relationship between sustainable waste management behaviour between the ‘home’ and ‘work’ settings. A questionnaire survey of 566 employees of the Cornwall NHS (National Health Service) was used to examine the nature of the behaviour between the two settings and to understand the main factors influencing the behaviour. The results indicate that there is strong link in the behaviour of individuals between the two settings, with employees who practised recycling activities at home also being more likely to practise a similar behaviour at work. There was also some similarity in the level of sustainability of the behaviour between the two settings. These behaviours were strongly influenced by the underlying attitudes and beliefs of the staff towards the environment. The implications for policy-making to improve sustainable waste management behaviour amongst individuals in England and Wales are also discussed.     

The Great East Japan Earthquake,tsunami, and nuclear meltdown: towards the (re)construction of a safe,sustainable, and compassionate society in Japan's shrinking regions

Japan's rural regions have been shrinking for the entire post-war period, and successive efforts to revitalise rural society have failed. This article examines whether the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, and the subsequent meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, present the Japanese state and society with a watershed opportunity to rethink regional revitalisation and national energy procurement strategies. The article begins by summarising the events of March and April 2011, examines possible approaches to the reconstruction of communities in the Tōhoku region, and critiques problems of governance in post-war Japan that the disaster reveals. It concludes by pulling together the information and analysis presented into a discussion of the prospects for achieving the three-point vision for a safe, sustainable, and compassionate society that Prime Minister Naoto Kan set the Reconstruction Design Council.