Application of continuous time random walk theory to nonequilibrium transport in soil

Continuous time random walk (CTRW) formulations have been demonstrated to provide a general and effective approach that quantifies the behavior of solute transport in heterogeneous media in field, laboratory, and numerical experiments. In this paper we first apply the CTRW approach to describe the sorbing solute transport in soils under chemical (or) and physical nonequilibrium conditions by curve-fitting. Results show that the theoretical solutions are in a good agreement with the experimental measurements. In case that CTRW parameters cannot be determined directly or easily, an alternative method is then proposed for estimating such parameters independently of the breakthrough curve data to be simulated. We conduct numerical experiments with artificial data sets generated by the HYDRUS-1D model for a wide range of pore water velocities (υ) and retardation factors (R) to investigate the relationship between CTRW parameters for a sorbing solute and these two quantities (υ, R) that can be directly measured in independent experiments. A series of best-fitting regression equations are then developed from the artificial data sets, which can be easily used as an estimation or prediction model to assess the transport of sorbing solutes under steady flow conditions through soil. Several literature data sets of pesticides are used to validate these relationships. The results show reasonable performance in most cases, thus indicating that our method could provide an alternative way to effectively predict sorbing solute transport in soils. While the regression relationships presented are obtained under certain flow and sorption conditions, the methodology of our study is general and may be extended to predict solute transport in soils under different flow and sorption conditions.     

中国北方地区沙尘暴变化趋势初探

沙尘暴是一种重要的环境问题和自然灾害，是土地沙漠化程度的重要指标。本文利用１９５１～１９８０年的整编气候资料、１９８１～１９８７年中国地面气象记录月报资料和１９９３～１９９４年的两个沙尘暴个例资料，对我国北方地区沙尘暴的空间分布和时间变化及其成因作了初步探讨，并对未来的变化趋势进行了初步预测。结果表明：沙尘暴主要发生在我国西北地区，且有两个多发中心区，即塔无拉玛干沙漠的西南部和甘肃河西走廊东部。沙尘暴主要发生在春季，尤以四月份最多；沙尘暴的形成是地形、地表沙尘物质、有利的急浪位置、低层大气的不稳定和锋面过境后的大风五种基本因素相互作用的结果；就整个北方地区而言，１９５１～１９８７年沙尘暴出现日数总的趋势是波动式减少的，但不同干旱气候区略有差异；本世纪末到下世纪中叶，整个北方地区沙尘暴总的趋势将呈波动式增加（约比１９５１～１９８７年的平均值增加７％）。     

日食形成旱涝的耗散结构理论探讨

本文以大气长波形成的耗散结构理论为依据,论述了日食激发大气长波的机理,从而得出日食是形成水旱灾害的主要原因。     

甘肃省永靖县黄茨滑坡的滑动机理与临滑预报

1995年1月30日甘肃省永靖县盐锅峡镇黄茨村后的黄土塬边发生一个体积约600万m~3的大滑坡，由于事前的严密监测和准确临滑预报，滑坡滑下时未造成一人伤亡，财产损失也减小到最低限度。同时创造了我国多手段、多信息综合跟踪预报滑坡的成功先例。本文主要介绍该滑坡的地质基础、滑动机理和临滑预报的方法和依据。     

旱涝趋势的投影寻踪预测模型

介绍了投影寻踪回归（ＰＰＲ）建模的基本原理和算法实现。选用太阳黑子年平均数和旱涝分型的转移概率作因子，建立了长江中下游旱涝趋势的ＰＰＲ预测模型，并与用相同资料建立的Ｂ－Ｐ神经网络模型预测结果进行了比较。     

基于灰平面的事故预测方法研究

基于灰色系统理论中的灰平面概念 ,构建某一指定点的邻域系GM(1,1)系列模型 ,由模型的解得出原始数列的预测值范围 ,即灰平面并用实例比较分析了模型的精度。研究表明 ,基于灰平面的事故预测方法的优势是所需数据少 ,编程计算简便 ,模型精度较高 ,可以预测系统行为特征值未来发展的范围 ,是一种值得推广的预测方法。     

森林火灾防治决策专家系统的研究与实现

笔者比较系统地收集、研究了林火专家多年积累的理论、经验和解决问题的方法以及各种预测模型、模型的适应条件和使用规则等 ,利用人工智能和COM组件技术 ,通过模型技术和专家系统技术的有机结合 ,建立了基于网络的森林火灾防治决策专家系统。实现了森林火灾从火灾预测、林火扑救决策、清理火场、看守火场到最后的损失评估全过程的推理辅助决策 ;实现了整个决策过程中预测模型和预测结果随外界条件的突变而进行的实时修正 ,从而真正实现了森林火灾管理各个阶段的实时性、准确性和正确性。     

自回归模型在井水埋深预测中的应用及改进

用时间序列分析方法建立井水埋深的预测模型时,首先采用差分的方法把季节性时间序列变成平稳时间序列,在此基础上,再用动态数据系统方法的传统F检验定阶法进行分析。由于样本的随机性可能过早地退出对模型的循环检验,从而不能找到合适的预测模型。笔者在用自回归模型建立井水预测模型的基础上,采用了一种改进的建模方法,提高了预测精度,并用实例进行了验证。     

黄土坡滑坡区临江崩滑体塌岸预测与防治

由于地质条件较差 ,黄土坡滑坡区临江崩滑堆积体曾发生多次小规模的滑塌 ,造成了重大人员伤亡和经济损失。在三峡库区蓄水后 ,影响库岸稳定的不利因素增加 ,如果临江崩滑堆积体得不到及时治理 ,一旦滑塌 ,后果将十分严重 ,崩滑体塌岸可能会影响到黄土坡滑坡区的整体稳定。为此 ,笔者根据塌岸成因的探讨 ,重点分析了塌岸的形成机制 ,有针对性地提出了防治措施     

Studies on the pyrolysis behavior of gasification and melting systems for municipal solid waste

 It is important to investigate the pyrolysis processes of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the same way as for any mixture comprised of multiple substances. In this article, a two-reaction model for a variety of MSW mixtures is proposed to predict mass changes due to pyrolysis. In order to formulate the model based on pyrolysis kinetics, we conducted experiments to determine the kinetic model parameters. By thermal analysis of the typical components of MSW, mass changes attributable to the pyrolysis reaction were found at about 350°C for paper, 400°–500°C for plastics, and 200°–400°C for garbage (dry condition). Activation energies were obtained by the Ozawa method based on the mass changes in pyrolysis. Thus, the pyrolysis behavior is formulated as a function of temperature. Then the pyrolysis mass change of the mixture can be predicted by using a weighted sum of the individual components. The model proved useful in experiments with real waste (refuse-derived fuels). Furthermore, the weight yields (pyrolysis gas, tars, solid residues) of the mixture can be calculated by their additive property after measuring the mass balance of each component. Received: May 11, 2001 / Accepted: November 16, 2001