煤与瓦斯突出预测研究动态及展望

笔者总结了以突出敏感性指标预测为基础的接触式煤与瓦斯突出预测技术的发展现状 ;阐述了瓦斯地质理论研究进展情况 ;对统计学方法、计算机模拟、模糊数学、灰色系统理论、神经网络技术、专家系统、分形理论、流变与突变理论等数学物理理论在煤与瓦斯突出预测领域中的应用情况作了系统的描述 ;对GIS技术、无线电波透视探测技术及以地震波为主的弹性波技术为煤与瓦斯突出预测技术的发展前景作了必要的分析。     

一种基于数据融合的林火火线动态蔓延预测方法的研究

准确预测林火蔓延对于有效防治野火危害具有重要意义。传统林火蔓延速度场经验模型需要可燃物特性、坡度、温度及湿度等众多实测参数,由于参数均具有不同的时空分布,限制了模型的实际应用。因此提出速度场实时测量及水平集法模拟林火蔓延两种技术相结合的方法,通过测定火蔓延锋面的位置获取当前时刻锋面处的速度场分布并对此速度场在未燃烧区域进行延拓,结合水平集法预测林火蔓延,并使用数值模拟及实验数据验证了该方法能够有效预测短期内林火蔓延趋势,得出基于速度场的数据融合方法可满足实际林火蔓延建模的需求。     

PDE accident model from a safety information perspective and its application to Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident

Accident models can provide theoretical frameworks for determining the causes and mechanisms of accidents, and thus are theoretical bases for accident analysis and prevention. The role of safety information in accident causation is profound. Thus, safety information is an important and essential perspective for developing accident models. This study presents a new accident model developed from a safety information perspective, called the Prediction—Decision—Execution (PDE) accident model. Because the PDE accident model is an emerging accident model that was proposed in 2018, its analysis logic and viability remain to be discussed. Thus, the main contributions of this study include two aspects: (i) detailed explanation of the analysis logic of the PDE accident model, and (ii) case-study examination of the Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident, a serious accident that occurred in China in 2018, to demonstrate the viability of the PDE accident model. Results show that this is a safety-information-driven accident model that can provide a new and effective methodology for accident analysis and prevention, and safety management.     

Generation and Quantification of Hazardous Dusts from Coal Mining in the Indian Context

The increasing trend of opencast coal mining in India tends to release huge amounts of dust. But there is no well-defined method of estimating dust emission due to different coal mining activities. This paper examines the sources of dust emission due to coal mining activities, and focuses on the quantification of dust emission with the development and use of emission factors. Because of their site-specific nature, emission factors developed for one site may not give the correct results for another site. In the present investigation, prediction equations are utilized for the development of emission factors. For the applications of this concept, one large opencast coal project of Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. (BCCL) was investigated, and the total amount of dust emitted due to different mining activities was calculated by the utilization of emission factor data, which was estimated to be 9368.2 kg/day. This paper also focuses on the significance of this study in the field of environmental protection and likely impacts of such study. The paper concludes that once the amount of dust generation is estimated, the impact on air quality can be assessed appropriately and a proper air-pollution control strategy can be developed.     

A classification and regression tree model of controls on dissolved inorganic nitrogen leaching from European forests

Often, there is a non-linear relationship between atmospheric dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) input and DIN leaching that is poorly captured by existing models. We present the first application of the non-parametric classification and regression tree approach to evaluate the key environmental drivers controlling DIN leaching from European forests. DIN leaching was classified as low (<3), medium (3-15) or high (>15 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) at 215 sites across Europe. The analysis identified throughfall NO₃⁻ deposition, acid deposition, hydrology, soil type, the carbon content of the soil, and the legacy of historic N deposition as the dominant drivers of DIN leaching for these forests. Ninety four percent of sites were successfully classified into the appropriate leaching category. This approach shows promise for understanding complex ecosystem responses to a wide range of anthropogenic stressors as well as an improved method for identifying risk and targeting pollution mitigation strategies in forest ecosystems.     

燃煤锅炉烟气达标排放下的地面浓度分析

对照国家环保总局最近发布的ＧＷＰＢ３－１９９９《锅炉大气污染物排放标准》,对几种日常最常用的中、小型燃煤锅炉进行了达标排放条件下的地面最大落地浓度预测。结果表明,在烟气达标排放和常规气象春造成的地面ＳＯ２最大落地浓度在国家环境空气质量标准（二级）的２８％以下,远小于规定浓度限值,烟尘的地面影响浓度更可忽略。因此在一般环境影响评价中,只要锅炉烟气做到达标排放,则可不作该两因子的地面浓度预测,由此可大     

市政脱水污泥的间接干化动力学研究

以食用油为热介质,在不同油浴温度下,对市政脱水污泥进行间接干化试验,推导出间接干化动力学模型,并对收集的冷凝液进行水质分析。结果表明:冷凝液为高浓度有机废水,TOC占TC的比例为73.2010%~75.5983%;VFAs的主要组分是乙酸、丙酸、丁酸、异丁酸、异戊酸和正戊酸,其中异丁酸所占比例最高(45.597%),其次为丙酸(24.554%);通过动力学模型的参数估值,Z模型(n≠1)因高R~2值和低RSS值而能很好的预测间接干化过程。     

CFB锅炉多点排放二氧化硫污染预测

循环流化床锅炉（CFB）多点排放时,直接测量分析对环境的影响较为困难。为了确定其中SO2对环境的影响,通过对鼢在CFB锅炉生产过程中的生成、转化和大气中的扩散分析,建立了多点排放的SO2污染预测正态分布模型。模型结果表明,多点排放时大气SO2的浓度分布仍满足正态分布特征,并较好地反映了最大落地浓度及位置,这对于依据区域大气SO2总量控制,确保和提高设备与工艺系统的清洁生产能力提供了可行依据。