Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

基于第二次全国污染源普查质量保证的思考及体系建设初探

通过对清查数据的结果分析,确定第二次全国污染源入户普查的对象,基于企业填报、现场入户、资料收集审核、数据核查等具体工作的实施与开展,思考和归总普查工作中影响数据质量的现实问题和难点,初步构建污染源普查质量保证体系,以期为全国污染源普查数据质量保证提供有益参考。     

锂电池检测的安全标准及安全防护研究

为评估并提高锂电池在使用、储存和运输过程中的安全,本文归纳总结了国内外锂电池安全检测的相关标准,对标准中测试项目异同作了重点分析和对比,并讨论了锂电池的安全风险及风险分级情况。同时,鉴于锂电池检测过程中可能出现的起火、爆炸等危险,探讨了电池检测过程的安全防护技术,并从样品区和试验区两方面提出了安全防护要求和建议。     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线,以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例,提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案,利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟,并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故,会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏;丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时,保护措施不足;隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙,隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围,在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙,在极度危险情况下,需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

甜菜制糖生产废水提标改造设计分析

食品废水处理对我国的经济发展以及环境业提高具有重要的推动作用。本文以某制糖厂为例,对甜菜制糖废水处理站的提标改造工程进行详细分析,在此基础上进行合理设计。     

生化法污水处理技术探讨

在城市发展中,人口增多和居民生活方式的变化都加大了城市污水量的增加,现代城市污水已经对地下水体产生了污染,人们的生活用水受到了严重影响。在国家环保要求下,利用先进污水处理式方法对城市污水进行处理至关重要,本文对城市污水特点进行了分析,并重点对生化法污水处理工艺进行了分析,希望能为行业内人士提供参考,提高城市污水的净化能力,促进城市的持续发展。     

快速城市化背景下的思雅河流域水环境分析

通过对思雅河流域连续3年的水环境质量监测,结合遥感影像获得其土地利用类型变化,据此研究城市化对水环境的影响。结果表明:2012—2014年间思雅河流域自然、农业景观面积占比减少,而建设用地面积持续增加;研究期间除TDS年均值略微下降外,其余水质指标的年均值几乎均呈递增趋势,尤以TSS和COD增加最显著;TSS、COD、NH 3-N和TP的相对标准偏差均>0.1,显著高于其余参数,说明其波动程度较大。主成分分析表明水环境变化最主要的影响因子为第一主成分(TSS、COD、NH 3-N和TP)。贵安新区大学城建设活动加重了思雅河流域水体污染趋势。     

整合消费与增加值视角的中国行业碳排放变动分解研究

在研究影响我国CO 2排放因素领域,基于投入产出技术的分解模型已成为主要的分析工具,现有研究多分别基于消费视角或收益视角展开分析。为全面评估各行业收益与消费对其上游、下游行业碳排放的综合影响,整合基于收益与基于消费两个视角,运用2012年与2015年我国投入产出表,构建两层嵌套式结构分解分析模型(SDA),比较分析消费规模效应、收益规模效应、行业流入、流出增加值变动效应、增加值结构变动效应等14个影响各行业碳排放变动的关键因素,并借助对消费者原则碳排放估算公式的重构,更准确地实现从增加值视角对各行业消费者原则碳排放变动的关键影响因素分析。研究发现:①研究期内,我国在总产出增长29.14%的同时碳排放量上升1.46%,各行业碳排放强度下降是主要的减排因素,其中建筑业减排贡献最大。②增排效应方面,影响从大到小依次为消费规模、收益规模、完全投入结构与完全消费结构四项效应,且前两个规模效应的影响是后两个结构效应的2倍以上,尤其建筑业消费规模效应、煤炭采选产品业收益规模效应增排较大。③消费规模扩大导致增排的原因并非行业本身生产规模扩大,而主要在于建筑业、服务业等行业规模扩张时吸收其他行业流入的增加值量增多。④收益规模扩大导致的增排效应方面,细分来说从大到小依次为劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余四项效应,且行业差异显著,如煤炭采选产品业的劳动者报酬效应,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品业的生产税净额效应以及电力、热力生产和供应业的营业盈余效应增排贡献较大,而煤炭采选产品业的营业盈余效应、批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业的生产税净额效应则减排贡献较大。     

A bibliometric study of pool fire related publications

Pool fire is a common form of fire, which is constantly investigated along with the development of fire science and is also comprehensively employed as stable fire sources in examining other fire scenarios such as building and tunnel fires. According to the records in Science Citation Index Expanded database in the Web of Science Core Collection, a total of 1073 articles or reviews related to pool fires have been published from 1966 to 2019. In order to have a better understanding of knowledge structure of this topic and further identify its development history and currently popular concerns, a bibliometric analysis of pool fire research is conducted by means of visualization software VOSviewer and CiteSpace. This work visually provides a comprehensive overview of pool fire research in terms of annual publication output, source journals, productive countries/regions, authors and their cooperation network, subject terms, and reference co-citation analysis. The analysis provides networks of co-cited references, authors, countries, subject terms, and their respective clusters, indicating their ranking in contributions to the pool fire related publications. The results can be applied to enhance the understanding of pool fire research and support further work in this area.