荷木树干CO2释放通量的个体间差异及树干液流的效应

为研究荷木(Schima superba)个体间树干CO2释放通量(Es)的差异以及树干液流对Es的影响,提高森林生态系统呼吸计算准确性,利用红外气体分析仪及自制式气室于2009年湿季和干季监测了华南荷木人工林5棵样树的Es,并同步监测了树干温度(θs)、气温及液流密度.结果显示:θs与气温之间呈显著线形正相关;Es与树干温度之间存在显著指数函数关系;Es干湿季的差异显著,并呈现明显的季节变化;5株样树之间Es存在显著差异,平均Es分别为3.12、3.60、5.52、6.98、8.09μmol m-2 s-1;同时,样树之间树干CO2释放通量的温度系数(Q10)差异显著(1.97～4.24之间).Tree1、Tree2和Tree4白天的Es与液流速度(v)显著正相关,白天的标准化树干CO2释放通量(R25,温度为25℃时的Es)高于晚上.荷木Es个体之间及时间上的差异主要受树干温度、生长状况和液流速度的影响.图3表6参35     

Value Plurality among Conservation Professionals

Abstract: Debate on the values that underpin conservation science is rarely based on empirical analysis of the values conservation professionals actually hold. We used Q methodology to investigate the values held by international conservation professionals who attended the annual Student Conference in Conservation Science at the University of Cambridge (U.K.) in 2008 and 2009. The methodology offers a quantitative means of examining human subjectivity. It differs from standard opinion surveys in that individual respondents record the way they feel about statements relative to other statements, which forces them to focus their attention on the issues they believe are most important. The analysis extracts the diverse viewpoints of the respondents, and factor analysis is used to reduce the viewpoints to a smaller set of factors that reflect shared ways of thinking. The junior conservation professionals attending the conference did not share a unifying set of core values; rather, they held a complex series of ideas and a plurality of opinions about conservation and how it should be pursued. This diversity of values empirically challenges recent proposals for conservation professionals to unite behind a single philosophy. Attempts to forge an artificial consensus may be counterproductive to the overall goals conservation professionals are pursuing.     

多时间尺度上研究中国近代气温变化规律

应用MODIS数据反演了过去10年中国气温及气温的空间分布特征,并基于气象数据重建了过去60年中国城市、郊区、农村及气象台周边地区冬季气温距平的时间序列,从多时间尺度上,详细分析了20世纪中国气温变化规律。结果发现：气象台气温记录可能受城市热岛效应影响;60年来我国气温呈震荡波动,波动小周期约为7a;从10年尺度上看,近60年来,年代际气温增加幅度最大的是20世纪90年代,21世纪初气温虽然仍处于暖期,但已经出现下降趋势。     

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

The oil industry along the Atlantic coast of Cameroon: Assessing impacts and possible solutions

While the oil industry along the Atlantic coast of Cameroon has made important contributions to the national economy, this has been accompanied with adverse environmental impacts. There has been significant pollution from oil drilling, refinery waste, oil spillage, gas and flaring. After discussing these impacts, this paper argues that prevailing regulations are inadequate and need overhauling. It proposes that cleaner production requires:

(i)

specific laws to protect dwellers in the neighbourhood of oil refineries, filling stations, service stations and pipelines;     

EIA training courses organized by the centre for environmental management and planning,University of Aberdeen: An analysis of experience

In 1980, the World Health Organization (Regional Office for Europe) invited The Centre for Environmental Management and Planning (CEMP) to organize a two-week training course on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to provide a comprehensive introduction to EIA with emphasis on methods and techniques for impact identification, prediction and assessment. Not suprisingly the topic of environmental health impact assessment was to be a major focus. Since 1980, the course has been held each year at the University of Aberdeen. An analysis of participation in the course during its first five years yields several impressions about the success of this training effort and the ways in which it might be improved.     

Price controls and banking in emissions trading: An experimental evaluation

We present results from laboratory emissions markets designed to investigate the effects of price controls and permit banking on limiting permit price risk. While both instruments reduce between-period price volatility and within-period price dispersion, combining price controls and permit banking yields important benefits. Banking alone produces high permit prices in earlier periods that fall over time, but the combined policy produces lower initial prices and lower volatility. However, banking, price controls, and the combination all produce higher between-period emissions volatility. Hence, for emissions markets that seek to control flow pollutants with strictly convex damages, efforts to limit permit price risk can result in higher expected damage.     

Spatial aggregation and the value of natural capital

Location matters for the value of capital assets. The value of changes in natural capital wealth can depend on whether natural capital asset prices are measured locally and then aggregated or whether average values are applied over aggregate representative areas. Spatial heterogeneity of resource characteristics and institutions impact approximations of the intertemporal welfare function and accounting price function because when spatial aggregation precedes valuation it implies greater arbitrage opportunities leading to more inelastic shadow (accounting) price functions than when valuation is done locally and then aggregated. Aggregation of observed values across varying resource and institutional characteristics can lead to omitted variables bias. We illustrate these results in the context of groundwater in the Kansas High Plains Aquifer and demonstrate that the accounting price function is less elastic when the accounting price is measured locally. Failure to measure locally and then aggregate could lead to undervaluing scarce resources and overvaluing plentiful ones, which biases wealth accounts in favor of passing the non-declining wealth sustainability test.     

渭河断陷盆地及邻区Q值分布与地震灾害关系的初步研究

本文研究了渭河断陷盆地及邻近地区介质品质因子的分布特征，探讨了其与该区域速度场、地质构造和地震灾害分布之间的关系。结果表明该区域介质品质因子分布与速度场之间存在着较好的对应关系，并与该区域的地震灾害分布密切相关。     

Individual-based modelling of fishermen search behaviour with neural networks and reinforcement learning

A model to mimic the search behaviour of fishermen is built with two neural networks to cope with two separate decision-making processes in fishing activities. One neural network deals with decisions to stay or move to new fishing grounds and the other is constructed for the purpose of finding prey within the fishing areas. Some similarities with the behaviour of real fishermen are found: concentrated local search once a prey has been located to increase the probability of remaining near a prey patch and the straightforward movement to other fishing grounds. The artificial fisherman prefers areas near the port when conditions in different fishing grounds are similar or when there is high uncertainty in its world. In the latter case a reluctance to navigate to other areas is observed. The artificial fisherman selects areas with higher concentration of prey, even if they are far from the port of departure, unless a high uncertainty is related to the fishing ground. Connected areas are preferred and followed in orderly fashion if a higher catch is expected. The observed behaviour of the artificial fisherman in uncertain scenarios can be described as a risk-averse attitude. The approach seems appropriate for an individual-based modelling of fishery systems, focusing on the learning and adaptive characteristics of fishermen and on interactions that take place at a fine scale.