Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents’ interest in having the project implemented. However, policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, which, respectively, increases and decreases their willingness-to-pay for the project. We conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents’ perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, and we find no significant relationship.     

The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.     

Brown backstops versus the green paradox

Anticipated climate policies are ineffective when fossil fuel owners respond by shifting supply intertemporally (the green paradox). This mechanism relies crucially on the exhaustibility of fossil fuels. We analyze the effect of anticipated climate policies on emissions in a simple model with two fossil fuels: one scarce and dirty (e.g. oil), the other abundant and dirtier (e.g. coal). We derive conditions for a ‘green orthodox’: anticipated climate policies may reduce current emissions. The model can also be used to analyze spatial carbon leakage. Calibrations suggest that intertemporal carbon leakage (from 0% to 8%) is a relatively minor concern.     

Government green procurement spillovers: Evidence from municipal building policies in California

We study how government green procurement policies influence private-sector demand for similar products. Specifically, we measure the impact of municipal policies requiring governments to construct green buildings on private-sector adoption of the US Green Building Council?s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) standard. Using matching methods, panel data, and instrumental variables, we find that government procurement rules produce spillover effects that stimulate both private-sector adoption of the LEED standard and investments in green building expertise by local suppliers. These findings suggest that government procurement policies can accelerate the diffusion of new environmental standards that require coordinated complementary investments by various types of private adopter.     

闽江口不同沼泽植被带土壤甲烷产生潜力的温度敏感性

2012年2月采集闽江河口鳝鱼滩短叶茳芏(Cyperus malaccensis),芦苇(Phragmites australis)和互花米草(Scirpus alterniflora) 3个典型潮汐沼泽植被带0~30cm(间隔5cm)土壤样品,在不同温度(10,20和30℃)进行15d室内厌氧培养实验,探讨河口区不同沼泽植被带土壤甲烷产生潜力及其温度敏感性(Q10值)的特征.结果表明,指数模型较好地拟合不同沼泽植被带土壤甲烷产生与温度的相关关系;温度由10℃升至20℃时,3个沼泽植被带土壤甲烷产生潜力Q10值的均值分别为5.04,14.92和14.81,最大值均在培养期间的第13~15d分别出现于10~15cm,15~20cm和20~25cm三个土层;温度由20℃升至30℃时,3个沼泽植被带土壤甲烷产生潜力Q10值的均值分别为3.56,4.99和3.43,最大值分别在培养期间的第4~6d,第4~6d和第7~9d出现于0~5cm,0~5cm和15~20cm三个土层;植被类型和土壤深度对甲烷产生潜力及Q10值均具有显著的影响(P<0.05).     

不同海拔高寒放牧草甸的生态系统呼吸与环境因子的关系

在全球变化的背景下,为了研究藏北高寒放牧草甸的生态系统呼吸和土壤呼吸特征,沿着3个海拔高度（4 300、4 500和4 700 m）观测了2010年7-9月白天的呼吸通量。同时,观测了同期的土壤温度、土壤水分含量、空气温度和相对湿度,在定性分析土壤水分含量和呼吸通量关系的基础上,将其分成低、中和高3个水平,在此基础上,分析生态系统呼吸、土壤呼吸与土壤温度、土壤水分含量、空气温度以及相对湿度的关系。结果表明,空气温度是决定生态系统呼吸和土壤呼吸变异的主导因子;生态系统呼吸、土壤呼吸以及裸地的土壤呼吸的Q10值分别为1.83～3.07、1.54～4.13和1.29～2.89;总体而言,生态系统呼吸和土壤呼吸Q10值随着海拔的升高和土壤水分含量的增加而增大。     

2种终轧/开冷温度DSS 2304复合板复层组织与耐腐蚀性能对比研究

目的 对比研究2种不同终轧/开冷温度的2304/Q345C热轧双相不锈钢复合板复层组织和耐腐蚀性能。方法 分别采用金相显微镜和透射电镜观察复层组织形貌,采用铁素体测量仪分析计算复层远界面铁素体组织。分别采用化学浸泡法及电化学法测试复层抗点蚀和晶间腐蚀性能,并对其组织进行金相观察和透射分析。采用万能试验机对界面进行剪切强度测试,对界面附近进行线扫描测试分析,进一步分析剪切性能测试结果。结果 在其他热轧参数一定的情况下,终轧/开冷温度为1050/1020℃的复合板复层组织中的铁素体含量较高,奥氏体/铁素体相界更为规整,位错密度较低,晶界未发现析出相,界面剪切强度较高,复层的耐点腐蚀、晶间腐蚀及腐蚀电化学性能均较优。结论 终轧/开冷温度为1050/1020℃的热轧双相不锈钢复合板复层具有更优的耐腐蚀性能。     

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment

In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.

Incorporating environmental issues into optimum cut-off grades modeling at porphyry copper deposits

Cut-off grade is defined as the grade which discriminates between ore and waste within a given orebody. Determination of a complete optimum cut-off grade policy is a very important function during mine life. Using the modified optimum cut-off grade model presented in this paper not only the net present value of a porphyry copper mining project is maximized, but also the adverse environmental impacts of the project are minimized simultaneously. This methodology is more effective in long-range planning. For showing the effectiveness of the model, two scenarios are considered in a hypothetical deposit and the results show that incorporating the modified optimum cut-off grade policy, the net present value will be increased by 3.6% in comparison with the Base Case.     

Exploring discourses on international environmental regime effectiveness with Q methodology: a case study of the Mediterranean Action Plan

Extensive research has been done on the 'high politics' of negotiations of international environmental agreements. However, little attention has been paid to the effectiveness of their implementation after coming into force. Effectiveness cannot be easily measured, since different stakeholders use different criteria as the basis of their opinion. The purpose of this study is to investigate discourses on the effectiveness of an international environmental regime. The regime chosen is the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) - and its legal framework, the Barcelona Convention - which was established in 1975 under the aegis of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Q methodology was used to reveal discourses on the effectiveness of UNEP/MAP. After collecting relevant literature and identifying the stakeholders, 25 in-depth interviews were conducted. The stakeholders were from the Secretariat of the Convention, academia, NGO workers, and others that studied or knew the subject well. From these interviews 294 statements were extracted, from which 44 were finally selected to be used in the Q study. The interviewees were approached for the second time to complete the Q sorts. This study revealed four distinct discourses concerning the effectiveness of international environmental regimes. It concludes that there is no one 'right' way of defining effectiveness and that no approach can provide more than a partial evaluation of the overall effectiveness of a regime.