The endowment effect,discounting and the environment

There is a considerable body of evidence showing that our preferences exhibit both reference dependence and loss aversion, a.k.a. the endowment effect. In this paper, we consider the implications of the endowment effect for discounting, with a special focus on discounting future improvements in the environment. We show that the endowment effect modifies the discount rate via (i) an instantaneous endowment effect and (ii) a reference-updating effect. Moreover we show that these two effects often combine to dampen the preference to smooth consumption over time. What this implies for discounting future environmental benefits may then depend critically on whether environmental quality is merely a factor of production of material consumption, or whether it is an amenity. On an increasing path of material consumption, dampened consumption smoothing implies a lower discount rate. But on a declining path of environmental quality and where we derive utility directly from environmental quality, it implies a higher discount rate. On non-monotonic paths, loss aversion specifically can give rise to substantial discontinuities in the discount rate.     

The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone

We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution exposure (PM_2.5 and ozone) on several categories of crime, with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, air pollution, and weather for an eight-year period across the United States. Our primary identification strategy employs extremely high dimensional fixed effects and we perform a series of robustness checks to address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution. We find a robust positive effect of increased air pollution on violent crimes, and specifically assaults, but no relationship between increases in air pollution and property crimes. The effects are present in and out of the home, at levels well below Ambient Air Pollution Standards, and PM_2.5 effects are strongest at lower temperatures. The results suggest that a 10% reduction in daily PM_2.5 and ozone could save $1.4 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution.     

Leaching toxicity characteristics of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash

The continuously increasing production of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWIBA) has promoted its utilization as construction material and raised environmental concern. The physico-chemical properties and leaching behavior of MSWIBA were studied, and ecotoxicological testing using a luminescent bacterium bioassay was performed to assess the ecological pollution risks associated with its leached constituents. The MSWIBA was leached by two types of leachants, H₂SO₄/HNO₃ and HAc solution, at different liquid to solid ratios and contact times. The concentrations of heavy metals and anions in the leachates were analyzed. Multivariate statistical analyses, including principle component analysis, Pearson's correlation analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis, were used to evaluate the contributions of the constituents to the toxicity (EC₅₀) of the MSWIBA leachate. The statistical analyses of the ecotoxicological results showed that the Ba, Cr, Cu, Pb, F⁻ and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations were closely correlated with the EC₅₀ value, and these substances were the main contributors to the ecotoxicity of the MSWIBA leachate. In addition, the cluster of these variables indicated similar leaching behaviors. Overall, the research demonstrated that the ecotoxicological risks resulting from MSWIBA leaching could be assessed before its utilization, which provides crucial information for the adaptation of MSWIBA as alternative materials.     

凋落物处理对森林地表CO2通量的影响及其调控机理

全球变化和森林演替可以导致森林地表凋落物数量和质量的变化,从而对森林地表 CO2通量产生影响。本实验对亚热带不同演替阶段的3种,即马尾松林（前期）、混交林（中期）和季风林（后期）进行地表凋落物去除、加倍与置换处理,利用静态箱气相色谱法测定地表CO2通量,并同步测定气温、土壤温度和湿度,分析凋落物质量和数量变化对森林地表CO2通量的影响及其调控机理。结果表明,（1）去除凋落物处理显著降低了不同演替阶段的3种森林地表CO2通量,而加倍凋落物处理可以增加森林地表CO2通量,但不同演替阶段增加的幅度不同,依次为：季风林＞马尾松林＞混交林。（2）置换凋落物对不同演替阶段的森林地表 CO2通量的影响不同,在演替后期的季风林中,置换混交林和马尾松林凋落物处理均增加地表CO2通量;在演替中期的混交林中,置换季风林和马尾松林凋落物均降低地表CO2通量。在演替前期的马尾松林中,置换季风林凋落物增加地表CO2通量,而置换混交林凋落物降低了地表CO2通量（3）结合测定的土壤温度和水分数据分析得出,凋落物处理引起森林地表 CO2通量的变化是通过处理凋落物质量和数量后改变森林地表水热条件来实现的。（4）3个林型的各种处理,地表 CO2通量与土壤温度均呈显著的指数相关关系,但不同处理不同地改变了森林地表土壤 CO2通量对温度的敏感性,即Q10值。     

What floats your boat? Preference revelation from lotteries over complex goods

We examine a type of lottery used to distribute some publicly held resource access rights. The lottery provides participants with the opportunity to choose among a set of simple gambles over multi-attribute goods. Participant choices result in an endogenous distribution of success rates over gambles that reflects tradeoffs between the relative desirability of the available goods and the probability of winning. When lottery winnings are multi-attribute goods, lottery outcomes provide sufficient information to estimate hedonic prices, marginal utility, and marginal rates of substitution among attributes. We develop a model for characterizing preferences from this information set. We apply our model to Idaho?s Four Rivers Whitewater Recreation Lottery, which allows applicants to apply for one permit among a large set of alternative river/day combinations that provide varying river and weather characteristics. This lottery structure shows promise as a foundation for economic experiments for preference revelation.     

Durable goods and long-run electricity demand: Evidence from air conditioner purchase behavior

I estimate a dynamic structural model of demand for air conditioners, the most energy-intensive home appliance in the US. The model explores the links between demand for durable goods and expected changes in key attributes: energy efficiency and price. I incorporate expectations explicitly as a feature of the choice setting, and use parameter estimates from the model to calculate durable good demand elasticities with respect to energy efficiency, electricity price, and price of the durable itself. These estimates fill a large gap in the literature, and also shed light on consumer behavior in this setting. Results indicate that consumers are forward-looking and value the stream of future savings derived from energy efficiency.     

The socially optimal recycling rate: Evidence from Japan

This paper estimates the average social cost of municipal waste management as a function of the recycling rate. Social costs include all municipal costs and revenues, costs to recycling households to prepare materials estimated with an original method, external disposal costs, and external recycling benefits. Results suggest average social costs are minimized with recycling rates well below observed and mandated levels in Japan. Cost-minimizing municipalities are estimated to recycle less than the optimal rate. These results are robust to changes in the components of social costs, indicating that Japan and perhaps other developed countries may be setting inefficiently high recycling goals.     

温带湖泊周边湿地原生草地与人工林土壤碳释放差异性分析

采用红外气体分析法对东平湖湿地人工杨树林和自然草地土壤碳通量进行测定,分析了6:00到18:00两种生境下群落土壤碳通量日变化规律,及其对温度、水分等环境因子的响应。结果表明:(1)两种生境群落的土壤碳通量日动态都呈单峰曲线,但人为耕作过的土壤碳通量明显高于原生草地,土壤碳通量均在6:00达到最小值,杨树林土壤碳通量的最大值出现在12:00,而草地群落土壤碳通量最大值在14:00左右;(2)人工林土壤碳通量与近地面大气温度、土壤温度的相关性均低于草地,且两种生境群落土壤呼吸与近地面大气温度的相关性(P<0.01)均好于与土壤温度的相关性(P<0.05)。土壤碳通量对近地面大气温度的敏感性Q10值大于土壤温度的敏感性,人工林土壤呼吸温度敏感性Q10值小于草地。土壤碳通量与近地面大气相对湿度之间具有显著线性方程关系(P<0.01),人工杨树林和草地的相关系数分别为:0.399、0.29。杨树林土壤碳通量与土壤体积含水量相关性差(P<0.05),湿地草地土壤CO2释放量与土壤体积含水量的相关性不显著(P>0.05),这可能由于土壤体积含水量日变化较小,而不能很好的解释日变化尺度上的土壤呼吸变化;(3)对湿地地土壤碳通量的日变化与土壤养分和盐分相关分析得出,人工林土壤中的有机质和全盐与土壤碳通量具有显著关系(P<0.05),而草地土壤碳通量与土壤养分和盐分相关性均非常差,说明人工林生境土壤有机质和全盐是影响土壤碳通量的一个重要因素,而对草地的影响较小。该结果可以为华北平原东部地区以及温带湖泊湿地的土壤碳通量研究提供参考。     

Optimal resource extraction contract with adverse selection

This paper studies the design of a mining concession contract as a multi-period adverse selection problem where production is the depletion of a non renewable resource. Compared with symmetric information, we show that overproduction is optimal in the terminal phase of the resource extraction program. Moreover, asymmetric information lengthens the contract duration but reduces the scarcity rent.     

Comparing petroleum fiscal regimes under oil price uncertainty

This study investigates and compares five upstream petroleum fiscal systems under crude oil price uncertainty. The fiscal systems analyzed are: the Alberta Canada tax and royalty system, the Papua New Guinea (PNG) (pre-2003) traditional Rate of Return (ROR) system, the Sao Tome and Principe/Nigerian Joint Development Zone (SNJDZ) Production Sharing Contract (PSC), the Tanzanian PSC/ROR hybrid system and the Trinidad and Tobago PSC. Contingent claims analysis is used to value the governments’ tax claims under uncertainty using a numerical approach, viz., Monte Carlo simulation. Each system is tested to obtain the after-tax value accruing to firms as well as the distortionary effects introduced by the fiscal systems. The results are then ranked. The Alberta Canada and PNG fiscal systems provide companies with the highest after-tax values while also being the least distortionary. The Tanzanian system is the lowest in both rankings, providing relatively low after-tax values and introducing strong distortionary effects. The SNJDZ PSC imposed a relatively high tax burden on companies with median distortionary effects. The Trinidadian PSC generated a median tax burden on companies but has strong distortionary effects.