Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

Economic growth,international trade,and the depletion or conservation of renewable natural resources

Conservation of renewable natural resources and promotion of economic growth are both sustainable development goals. Here, we study the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources—under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights—in an endogenous growth model. We find that if the resource is depleted over time, consumption growth is reduced. Economic growth and international trade only impact resource use when the resource is harvested under full property rights. Then, widening international trade can lead countries to shift from conservation to depletion. Changes in the institutional setting of resource use in one country may have repercussions on trading partners. Our results indicate potential trade-offs between the sustainable development goals and imply that policies focusing on resource use or trade (e.g., international trade bans or certified trade) are not sufficient to prevent resource depletion.     

Cost pass-through to higher ethanol blends at the pump: Evidence from Minnesota gas station data

We examine the pass-through of wholesale prices to retail prices in the market for E85, which contains 51%–83% ethanol, and in the much larger market for E10, which contains 10% ethanol. We use a panel dataset consisting of monthly observations from 2007 to March 2015 on wholesale and retail prices for 274 Minnesota gas stations that sell both E10 and E85. Consistent with prior research, the cumulative pass-through coefficient for E10 is 1.00 after one month. In contrast, the E85 market is sparse, and although pass-through increased over time, we estimate it to be only 0.53 statewide from 2012 to 2015. Pass-through is higher at stations with more local E85 competitors. In the Twin Cities, which has a high density of E85 stations, pass-through is nearly complete, but outside the Twin Cities slightly less than half the wholesale discount of E85, relative to E10, is passed on to the consumer.     

CEO education and corporate environmental footprint

We analyze the effect of CEO education on environmental decision-making. Using a unique sample of Danish firms from 1996 to 2012, we find that CEO education significantly improves firms' energy efficiency. We seek to derive causality using health shocks: the hospitalization of highly educated CEOs induces a drop in energy efficiency, whereas the hospitalization of less educated CEOs does not have any significant effect. Exploring the mechanisms at play, we show that our results are largely driven by advanced education in business degrees. Moreover, we show that CEO education is associated with greater environmental awareness: highly educated CEOs exhibit greater concerns for climate change, as measured by a survey of social preferences, and drive more environmentally efficient cars. Taken together, our findings suggest that education shapes managerial styles giving rise to greater sustainability in corporate actions.     

Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China

This study examines whether investment in climate change mitigation contributes to poverty alleviation. We investigate the impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) projects on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement and employment generation in rural communities in China. Our estimation results also reveal that wind energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase income and the share of labor force in the primary industry in rural areas. These results suggest different channels through which renewable energy sources affect income.     

A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

Environmental occurrence of Q1, a C9H3C17N2 compound,that has been identified as a natural bioaccumulative organochlorine

Environmental appearance of Q1, a natural heptachloro compound with the molecular formula C₉H₃Cl₇N₂, was studied in samples from different sites all over the world. Q1 was expected to have a bipyrrole backbone, similar to other compounds ascribed to natural sources. A method for isolation of Q1 was developed by combination of adsorption chromatography on silica and normal phase HPLC with an amino phase. UV-detection of Q1 supports the aromatic character of the compound.

The high levels detected in samples of marine mammals and birds suggested that Q1 is both a persistent and a bioaccumulative contaminant. This was underscored by calculated log K_OW in the range of other lipophilic organohalogens. In accordance with earlier studies, highest Q1 concentrations were found in the Southern Hemisphere, but with a highly selective GC/ECNI-MS-SIM method, detection of Q1 was also achieved in many samples from the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to marine mammals and birds, Q1 was also detected in fish from the Mediterranean Sea and the Antarctic. Traces were also detected in SRM 1588 certified cod liver oil, but Q1 was not detected in fish from Hong Kong and Lake Baikal.     

Ozone pollution and ozone biomonitoring in European cities. Part I: Ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure indices at urban and suburban sites

In the frame of a European research project on air quality in urban agglomerations, data on ozone concentrations from 23 automated urban and suburban monitoring stations in 11 cities from seven countries were analysed and evaluated. Daily and summer mean and maximum concentrations were computed based on hourly mean values, and cumulative ozone exposure indices (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40), AOT20) were calculated. The diurnal profiles showed a characteristic pattern in most city centres, with minimum values in the early morning hours, a strong rise during the morning, peak concentrations in the afternoon, and a decline during the night. The widest amplitudes between minimum and maximum values were found in central and southern European cities such as Düsseldorf, Verona, Klagenfurt, Lyon or Barcelona. In the northern European cities of Edinburgh and Copenhagen, by contrast, maximum values were lower and diurnal variation was much smaller. Based on ozone concentrations as well as on cumulative exposure indices, a clear north–south gradient in ozone pollution, with increasing levels from northern and northwestern sites to central and southern European sites, was observed. Only the Spanish cities did not fit this pattern; there, ozone levels were again lower than in central European cities, probably due to the direct influence of strong car traffic emissions. In general, ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure were significantly higher at suburban sites than at urban and traffic-exposed sites. When applying the newly established European Union (EU) Directive on ozone pollution in ambient air, it was demonstrated that the target value for the protection of human health was regularly surpassed at urban as well as suburban sites, particularly in cities in Austria, France, northern Italy and southern Germany. European target values and long-term objectives for the protection of vegetation expressed as AOT40 were also exceeded at many monitoring sites.     

南京大气臭氧浓度的季节变化及其对主要作物影响的评估

近年来,近地面O_3浓度呈不断上升趋势,高浓度O_3会影响作物的生长导致产量降低.本文利用2014~2016年南京市近地面O_3浓度的连续观测数据,分析了O_3浓度的变化特征及其对冬小麦和水稻产量与经济损失的影响.结果表明,2014~2016年南京市O_3年平均浓度分别为62.9、68.6和69.1μg·m-3,O_3浓度和超标日数均呈现逐年增加的趋势.季节平均的O_3浓度大小的顺序为:夏季、春季、秋季和冬季.四季O_3浓度的日变化均为明显的"单峰型",峰值出现在15:00~16:00,谷值出现在07:00~08:00.2014~2016年冬小麦生长季期间AOT40的数值分别为10.5、14.4和9.4μL·L~(-1)·h,水稻生长季期间AOT40的数值分别为8.5、20.0和25.6μL·L~(-1)·h.近地面O_3对冬小麦的影响要高于水稻,其中,2014~2016年O_3造成冬小麦减产范围为21.4%~32.8%,每年的经济损失达15 076.6~27 799.6万元,造成水稻减产范围为8.1%~24.3%,每年的经济损失达19 747.2~68 075.7万元.