陆地生态系统呼吸温度敏感性及影响因素研究

陆地生态系统是全球第二大碳库,生态系统呼吸的任何细微变化都会在很大程度上影响着全球碳循环,改变大气中CO2浓度,而气候变化(如气候变暖)反过来会影响生态系统呼吸,从而增强温室效应.呼吸对温度的敏感性系数(Q10)是定量气候-碳循环反馈的一个关键参数,其相关研究仍存在较大的不确定性.本文探究了Q10的影响因素、时空变异性及机理解释,阐述了表观Q10和内在Q10的机理差异,指出内在Q10是有机物分解对温度的敏感性,更能反映生态系统碳循环对气候变化的本质反馈.     

The role of price expectations and legal uncertainties in ocean mineral,exploration activities

In this paper, a standard exploration activities model is modified and applied to time series, data from deep seabed mining of a group of minerals where the number of patents is used as a proxy, for the level of mineral exploration activities. In addition to the rational expectations model, price, expectations formation for mineral prices is decomposed into trend and cyclical components using the, HP-filter method. Estimated parameters from the supply and cost functions are used to determine the, shadow price of the minerals. The non-linear instrumental variables estimator is employed to estimate, the exploration activities function. While the rational expectations model shows the importance of, current prices on exploration efforts, the HP-filter model suggests that firms concentrate on the trend, in prices rather than the short-run cyclical fluctuations. Also, while the U.S. refusal to ratify the LOSC, has increased the legal uncertainties surrounding the management of ocean resources and reduced the, incentive to engage in exploration activities, the passage of the ISA's main legislative accomplishment, regarding regulation of the explorations for polymetallic nodules appear to have made a positive effect.     

Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

Cultivating collaboration: Lessons from initiatives to understand and manage cumulative impacts in Australian resource regions

Australia has experienced rapid development within its resource regions, with traditional mining sectors like coal, iron-ore and natural gas expanding and new industries such as coal seam gas emerging. As a result, there is an increasing prevalence and awareness of the cumulative impacts of the extractive resource industries on the society, environment and economy of these regions. Collaborative governance is emerging as a means of addressing cumulative impacts. This article undertakes an analysis of 30 case studies of collaborative governance in the resources sector of Australia. The initiatives analysed range from those focussed on information exchange and coordination to higher degrees of collaboration that involve shared resources and shared risks. The study demonstrates that there are challenges in using collaborative approaches to tackle cumulative impacts, but that significant benefits can be realised. The study highlights the need to nurture and cultivate collaborative relationships in order to provide the foundation for long-term solutions.     

Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break

This paper examines whether Russia suffers from “Dutch Disease” by investigating the real appreciation of the Russian ruble and the relative de-industrialization in the post Soviet Union-era. According to UNDP Russia Report (2009) the Russian economy has indeed exhibited some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease” in recent years as upward movements in oil prices are accompanied by a reduction in the share of manufacturing output and an increase in service prices. Furthermore, the report claims that these developments may trigger a recession in Russia in the future. Using Gregory and Hansen (1996a, 1996b) and Arai and Kurozumi (2007) structural break cointegration frameworks, our results indicate that the Russian economy exhibits some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease”. Although the diagnosis is not certain, the risk is evident. Hence, policies that would make the Russian economy more robust to shocks in the oil price need to be carefully designed and implemented.     

万宁滨海与西沙群岛大气腐蚀性对比研究

统计分析了西沙群岛和万宁试验站近海场的润湿时间、空气中二氧化硫和氯离子沉积速率,根据环境因素法和标准金属法评定了两地的大气腐蚀性,两地的大气腐蚀等级同为C5级,但西沙群岛的腐蚀性稍弱于万宁试验站近海场。Q235钢、镀镍钢、镀铬钢、不锈钢钝化件在两地的试验结果证实了上述结论,试验结果表明,万宁试验站近海场积累的大量试验数据可应用于西沙群岛。     

典型工业沿海区域的大气环境腐蚀性评价

目的 利用现役金属材料对工业沿海区域所处不同大气环境进行环境腐蚀性评价,并研究不同金属材料的腐蚀行为差异性,探讨工业沿海大气环境下金属材料的耐蚀性选择。方法 在不同大气环境下,选择现役金属材料Q235、16MnNi和L415开展1 a的户外曝晒试验,并利用质量损失分析、扫描电镜等手段,通过对金属基材进行腐蚀机理研究,评价大气环境的腐蚀性。结果 Q235、16MnNi和L415等3种钢在不同区域沿海工业大气环境下的腐蚀行为受大气腐蚀环境的影响较大,腐蚀产物中含有一定量的Cl和S。同种金属材料表面锈层的特殊结构,使得其基体与大气环境中的腐蚀因子相接触,引发了金属材料在不同大气腐蚀环境中不同腐蚀行为的差异性。结论 工业沿海区域的大气环境中,大气腐蚀性差异由酸循环腐蚀机制形成。3种钢材在腐蚀初期,由于锈层多孔隙结构和可溶性腐蚀产物形成,加重了腐蚀程度。黄岛区域、曹妃甸区域、岚山区域和湛江区域的大气腐蚀等级分别为C2、C3、C2、C3级。     

模拟氮沉降对北亚热带落叶阔叶林土壤呼吸的影响

于2008年4月～2009年4月在龙王山北亚热带落叶阔叶林地进行模拟氮沉降试验,利用静态箱-气相色谱法测定土壤呼吸,研究氮沉降增加对森林土壤呼吸的影响.结果表明,氮沉降没改变土壤呼吸的季节性变化规律和日变化规律.与对照(CK)相比,低氮(TL)、中氮(TM)和高氮(TH)处理使森林土壤年平均呼吸速率分别降低了8.51%、9.74%和11.24%,使日平均呼吸速率分别降低了4.42%、11.09%和12.17%.森林土壤呼吸与土壤温度存在极显著的指数关系(p0.01),CK、TL、TM和TH的土壤呼吸温度敏感系数(Q10)分别为2.53、3.22、2.64和2.92,氮沉降提高了林地土壤呼吸的温度敏感系数.本研究表明,氮沉降显著降低了森林土壤呼吸,但提高了土壤呼吸的温度敏感性.     

Q235钢在火灾条件下的力学性能研究

在试验的基础上,对建筑中常用的Q235铜在火灾条件下的力学性能进行了研究,获得了Q235钢的屈服强度、极限强度、弹性模量、极限应变等力学性能随温度变化而变化的规律,并对影响Q235钢力学性能的因素进行了分析。     

Innovation and the dynamics of global warming

Global warming and the carbon cycle are a dynamic system with positive feedbacks. Fossil fuels are exhaustible resources. These two facts mean that innovation in clean energy technology, rather than mitigating global warming, can lead to a permanently higher temperature path. This paper explores the impact of innovation in the simplest model linking the economic theory of exhaustible resources with positive feedback dynamics in the carbon cycle.