小型人工湖泊水环境变化特征分析及驱动因子识别

小型人工湖泊能够改善城市水生态环境,但其易受外界环境的影响而使水体发生污染。为了探析小型人工湖泊水质和底泥中污染物的变化特征及引起水质污染的主要驱动因子,以郑州大学新校区的眉湖为例,结合现场监测与实验室检测数据,分析了水质和底泥中污染物的变化特征及作用机制;在分析水质影响因子间相关关系的基础上,通过主成分和主因子分析识别了影响小型人工湖泊水质的主要驱动因子,即透明度、水温、p H值、电导率、氧化还原电位、叶绿素a、藻类、流速、总磷和总氮。     

大气棕色碳的研究进展与方向

有机气溶胶是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分.近年来,部分有机气溶胶被证实在紫外-近可见光波段能进行有效光吸收.吸光有机气溶胶(即棕色碳)已成为当前国际大气环境领域的研究热点之一,其吸光贡献对辐射强迫、区域空气质量、全球气候变化的影响备受关注.中国城市群区域大气复合污染严重,2013年1月以来,大尺度区域能见度降低、灰霾现象频繁发生.研究表明,中国大气棕色碳的负荷高,其重要贡献源类如生物质与化石燃料燃烧等排放量大,棕色碳在中国大气细颗粒物总消光中的贡献及其辐射强迫亟需评估.然而,棕色碳的基础研究还较为薄弱,特别是对它的组成及来源的认识仍十分有限.本文旨在指出在中国开展大气棕色碳研究的紧迫性和必要性,并从棕色碳的来源、组成、测量方法、浓度分布、光学特性、辐射强迫贡献等角度介绍目前国际研究进展,提出现有问题与不足,以及对未来研究方向的建议,以促进对棕色碳的认识与了解,为中国在该领域的研究提供参考和依据.     

Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm

Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO₂.     

长江三角洲地区大气顶气溶胶直接辐射强迫遥感估算

利用MODIS和OMI卫星遥感数据估算长江三角洲地区大气顶气溶胶直接辐射强迫并分析其时空变化特征.结果表明了大气顶辐射强迫和气溶胶光学厚度(AOT)存在明显的线性相关关系,R和RMSE分别为0.89和5.50.大气顶辐射强迫的区域月平均变化范围大约在-10~-70W/m2之间,一年中最大值(-53.97±6.14W/m2)和AOT一样出现在6月,最小值(-16.41±2.10W/m2)出现在12月.4个季节的大小依次是:夏季(-44.30±9.09W/m2)>春季(-42.00±7.83W/m2)>秋季(-28.02±6.32W/m2)>冬季(-20.40±5.00W/m2).在6 月,大气顶气溶胶辐射强迫空间差异最明显,在太湖沿岸的城市地区,如上海、杭州,辐射强迫可达-70W/m2,而在千岛湖地区大约为-10W/m2.在12月,空间差异最小,北部城市地区大约为-20 W/m2;南部地区大约为-10 W/m2.     

Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Finland: Methods for Estimating Forcing of a Country or an Activity

The objective of this study was to assess the radiative forcing due to Finnish anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in three scenarios. All the Kyoto Protocol gases, i.e., CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and fluorinated gases, were included. The calculations showed that forcing due to Finnish emissions will increase in the case of all gases except methane by the year 2100. In 1990, radiative forcing due to Finland's emission history of all Kyoto Protocol gases was 3.2 mW/m², of which 71% was due to carbon dioxide, 17% to methane, and the rest to nitrous oxide. In 1990 the share of fluorinated gases was negligible. The share of methane in radiative forcing is decreasing, whereas the shares of carbon dioxide and of fluorinated gases are increasing and that of nitrous oxide remains nearly constant. The nonlinear features concerning additional concentrations in the atmosphere and radiative forcing due to emissions caused by a single country or activity are also considered. Radiative forcing due to Finnish emissions was assessed with two different approaches, the marginal forcing approach and the averaged forcing approach. The impact of the so-called background scenario, i.e., the scenario for concentration caused by global emissions, was also estimated. The difference between different forcing models at its highest was 40%, and the averaged forcing approach appeared to be the more recommendable. The effect of background concentrations in the studied cases was up to 11%. Hence, the choice of forcing model and background scenario should be given particular attention.     

聚合物燃烧放热的通风

本文在小尺寸试件燃烧实验的基础上,着重研究了几种典型聚合物燃烧时放热参数的变化规律及其通风影响,通过实验数据的拟合和分析,揭示了燃烧放热、通风条件和燃料种类之间复杂的关系,给出了由放热参数决定的可燃性区域,得到了一些新的结论,有助于材料放热特性认识和室内火分析的进一步深入。     

中国地区气溶胶类型变化及其辐射效应研究

利用AERONET网站中国地区各区域多个站点长期的观测数据,通过各类气溶胶光学特性的差异（Extinction Angstrom Exponent,EAE;Single Scattering Albedo,SSA）将中国地区华北区域北京、香河站点,华东区域太湖站点,华南区域香港站点,西北区域SACOL站点气溶胶进行分类分析其气溶胶占比特征及年际变化,并进一步研究不同地区各类气溶胶光学及辐射特性差异.研究结果表明,不同地区各类气溶胶占比特征显著,华北区域北京、香河站点混合吸收型气溶胶Type5占比最多,分别占比35%、31%;其次为城市/工业型气溶胶Type3和Type4;华东区域以Type3、Type4和Type5三类气溶胶为主,分别占比32%、26%、25%;华南区域Type3、Type4气溶胶占比最为突出,占比分别达到46%、21%.西北区域Type5占比高达45%,出现高达34%的沙尘型气溶胶Type7.以不同地区各类气溶胶占比特征为基础,不同气溶胶的年际变化趋势差异较大.不同地区各类气溶胶光学特性参数（AOD（Aerosol Optical Depth）、EAE、SSA）年变化特征表明,华北、华东区域AOD减少、EAE变化小、SSA增大;华南区域整体AOD增大,但近年来AOD显著减少、EAE变化小、SSA增大;西北区域AOD增大、EAE增大、SSA减少,即除了西北区域外,其余区域环境空气质量逐渐好转,粒子尺度变化较小,吸收能力下降.地表气溶胶直接辐射强迫效率（ARFE-BOA）结果显示,除华东区域太湖站点外,Type1对地表的降温冷却作用最大,绝对值均大于210 W·m^-2,其次为Type2,即吸收型粒子对地表的贡献大于散射型粒子;关于ARFE-TOA的平均特征,Type4或Type7对大气顶的降温冷却作用最强,而各类气溶胶对大气层的加热作用与ARFE-BOA的平均特征类似,吸收型细粒子对大气层的加热作用较强.     

A review of research on China’s carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China’s economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from “research on carbon emission history” to “carbon emission trend prediction,” from “research on paths of realizing peak” to “peak restraint research,” provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China’s carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.     

自贸区效应下山东省渔业资源开发基准选择

国家间自贸区的设立,将更加有利于各签约国资源环境利用效率的提升。本文采用贸易指数测算方法,分析了中、挪、韩在海水产品生产、加工及贸易流通中的各自优势。挪威因丰富的渔业资源和先进的渔业技术,在海水产品养殖及加工领域中具有全球引领作用;韩国有相对更加严格的海水产品安全检疫检验体系,可以确保海水产品的品质安全。随着中韩自贸区的实施及中挪重启双边自贸协定谈判,三国海洋渔业彼此间将进入自贸型竞争态势。如何运用自贸区效应,积极促进渔业资源开发比较潜能的发挥,进一步融入全球化,对于我国,尤其是对山东省渔业实现跨越式发展都是一个亟待破解的课题。山东省作为中国第一渔业大省,在继"海上山东"战略实施基础上,又率先提出"海上粮仓"建设规划设想。针对目前山东省渔业发展中存在的瓶颈问题,本文结合全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)的模拟,在中挪、中韩自贸区背景下对各方海水产品贸易的影响进行了系统分析,提出:在当前海水养殖产量大于捕捞产量的格局下,山东"海上粮仓"建设应以自贸区制度所形成的倒逼机制为互动机理,切实落实海产品养殖生产的安全标准底线和生态系统水平提升的两个基准维度,全面践行可持续健康的渔业资源开发理念,在全国先行完成开放型"海上粮仓"示范体系的建设,以推动我国海水产品生产与加工从量到质的转型,实现海水资源开发与生态环境保护并举,提升我国海洋渔业的国际竞争力。     

Simulation of aerosol direct radiative forcing with RAMS-CMAQ in East Asia

The air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ is developed to assess aerosol direct radiative forcing by linking simulated meteorological parameters and aerosol mass concentration with the aerosol optical properties/radiative transfer module in this study. The module is capable of accounting for important factors that affect aerosol optical properties and radiative effect, such as incident wave length, aerosol size distribution, water uptake, and internal mixture. Subsequently, the modeling system is applied to simulate the temporal and spatial variations in mass burden, optical properties, and direct radiative forcing of diverse aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt over East Asia throughout 2005. Model performance is fully evaluated using various observational data, including satellite monitoring of MODIS and surface measurements of EANET (Acid Deposition Monitoring Network), AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and CSHNET (Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network). The correlation coefficients of the comparisons of daily average mass concentrations of sulfate, PM2.5, and PM10 between simulations and EANET measurements are 0.70, 0.61, and 0.64, respectively. It is also determined that the modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) is in congruence with the observed results from the AERONET, the CSHNET, and the MODIS. The model results suggest that the high AOD values ranging from 0.8 to 1.2 are mainly distributed over the Sichuan Basin as well as over central and southeastern China, in East Asia. The aerosol direct radiative forcing patterns generally followed the AOD patterns. The strongest forcing effect ranging from −12 to −8 W m⁻² was mainly distributed over the Sichuan Basin and the eastern China’s coastal regions in the all-sky case at TOA, and the forcing effect ranging from −8 to −4 W m⁻² could be found over entire eastern China, Korea, Japan, East China Sea, and the sea areas of Japan