岷江上游山地生态系统的退化及其恢复与重建对策

阐述了岷江上游山地生态系统的主要特征及主要由人类活动引起的森林、草地、农用地和整个山地生态系统环境退化现状。在此基础上，提出了岷江上游退化山地生态系统恢复与重建的对策，即加强资源和环境的合理利用和保护，提高全民环境保护意识；分区分类治理；不同区城不同退化亚系统采取不同的技术方法。同时，就恢复与重建过程中应注意的几个问题出提出了解决的思路和方法。     

Testing and Improving Temperature Thresholds for Snow and Rain Prediction in the Western United States

The phase of precipitation at the land surface is critical to determine the timing and amount of water available for hydrological and ecological systems. However, there are few techniques to directly observe the precipitation phase and many prediction tools apply a single temperature threshold (e.g., 0°C) to determine phase. In this paper, we asked two questions: (1) what is the accuracy of default and station optimized daily temperature thresholds for predicting precipitation phase and (2) what are the regions and conditions in which typical temperature‐based precipitation phase predictions are most suited. We developed a ground truth dataset of rain vs. snow using an expert decision‐making system based on precipitation, snow depth, and snow water equivalent observations. This dataset was used to evaluate the accuracy of three temperature‐threshold‐based techniques of phase classification. Optimizing the temperature threshold improved the prediction of precipitation phase by 34% compared to using 0°C threshold. Developing a temperature threshold based on station elevation improved the error by 12% compared with using the 0°C temperature threshold. We also found the probability of snow as a function of temperature differed among ecoregions, which suggests a varied response to future climate change. These results highlight a current weakness in our ability to predict the effects of regional warming that could have uneven impacts on water and ecological resources.     

利用猪场废弃物发展生态农业的模式研究

规模养猪是专业化、集约化生产方式,也是农业产业化经营的发展趋势。如果养猪场产生的大量粪尿得不到妥善处置和充分利用,将对环境产生很大的危害。猪粪尿中含有大量的营养物质和生物质能,以猪粪尿厌氧发酵为纽带,充分利用沼液和沼渣作为发展种植业和渔业的肥料或饲料,形成“农林渔牧”生态农业体系,不仅有效促进农村经济发展、增加农民收入,而且能够保护生态环境、节约资源。剖析了小、中、大3类猪场以沼气建设为纽带发展生态农业的规律、生产模式、系统结构及其效果。结果表明,为了促进规模养猪健康发展,形成“农林渔牧”生态农业体系,养猪专业户必须增强节约资源、保护环境的社会责任感,政府要加强猪场污染物排放的监管,同时制定优惠政策引导和促进猪粪尿资源综合利用。     

Evolution Rules of Urban-rural Development and Inspiration for China’s Agriculture

Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient,this article designs the agriculture relative development index(ARDI) as indicators measuring the intensity of urban-rural dual structure which is comparable among the countries of the world.This article calculates ARDI of 40 countries from 1980 to 2004.The result shows that ARDI in the developed countries and most of the middle-income countries are rising and yet there are declines in most of the low-income countries.The result also showed that most countries’ ARDI...     

Mortality and recruitment of mountain birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula pubescens</Emphasis> ssp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">czerepanovii</Emphasis>) in the impact zone of a copper-nickel smelter in the period of significant reduction of emissions: The results of 15-year monitoring

Long-term monitoring of mountain birch populations (1992–2006) was performed in 14 test plots located at distances of 1 to 63 km from the copper-nickel smelter in Monchegorsk (Murmansk oblast) and differing in the degree of disturbance. In the period from 1999 to 2006, atmospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals amounted to only one-third of those between 1992 and 1998, but birch mortality in heavily polluted areas (with nickel concentrations in leaves exceeding 160 mg/kg) remained at the same level, being absent (as previously) in less polluted areas. Throughout the observation period, birch recruitment was observed only in areas where nickel concentrations in the leaves were below 160 mg/kg; i.e., this concentration proved to be the threshold with respect to both mortality and recruitment of mountain birch. The course of demographic processes in its populations has remained unchanged after the reduction of emissions, confirming the hypothesis of the “inertial“ effect of industrial emissions on ecosystems. In some areas of industrial barrens, mountain birch may perish completely within the next decade.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Responses of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The condition of 25 stream sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, were assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Multimetric condition indices were developed and used to rank sites on the basis of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. These indices showed that sites in the Cascades and Eastern Cascades ecoregions were largely unimpaired. In contrast, all but two sites in the Columbia Basin ecoregion were impaired, some severely. Agriculture (nutrients and pesticides) was the primary factor associated with impairment and all impaired sites were characterized by multiple indicators of impairment. All indices of biological condition (fish, invertebrates, and algae) declined as agricultural intensity increased. The response exhibited by invertebrates and algae suggested a threshold response with conditions declining precipitously at relatively low levels of agricultural intensity and little response at moderate to high levels of agricultural intensity. This pattern of response suggests that the success of mitigation will vary depending upon where on the response curve the mitigation is undertaken. Because the form of the community condition response is critical to effective water-quality management, the National Water-Quality Assessment Program is conducting studies to examine the response of biota to gradients of land-use intensity and the relevance of these responses to water-quality management. These land-use gradient pilot studies will be conducted in several urban areas starting in 1999.     

Hydrologic–Economic Model for Managing Irrigation Intensity in Irrigation Areas under Watertable and Soil Salinity Targets

This paper gives mathematical details and sample applications of SWAGMAN Farm (SWAGMAN, Salt Water and Groundwater Management), a farm-scale hydrologic economic model that integrates agronomic, climatic, irrigation, hydrogeological and economic aspects of irrigated agriculture. The model is capable of determining optimum mix of land use to keep watertable and soil salinity within acceptable limits while maximising the economic returns. Alternatively, the model can simulate water and salt balance and economics of a given cropping preference. Web-based and Geographic Information Systems versions of the model are available for integration with the environmental reporting systems of the irrigation areas.     

山区土壤重金属空间插值性能的改进

山区土壤重金属监测中,密集均匀的布点采样困难大,成本高。根据稀疏非均匀样本数据准确预测山区土壤重金属空间分布,对可视化描述检测元素的分布及趋势具有重要意义。基于云南省楚雄市南部山区表层土壤中重金属锰、钒的采样数据,对集成径向基函数神经网络(IRBFANNs)和传统插值方法:反距离(IDW)、普通克里格(OK)、径向基函数神经网络(RBFANNs),进行了不同等级采样密度下的插值性能比较。结果表明,样本点数量减少时,传统预测方法的插值精度都有所下降,而IRBFANNs算法在样本点较少情况下能够保持最好的插值精确度和稳定性,有效改进了空间插值性能。     

农户从事生态循环农业意愿与行为的决定:市场收益还是政策激励?

发展生态循环农业是我国新时期转变农业发展方式的战略选择,农户是生态循环农业的经营主体和利益相关者,厘清农户参与生态循环农业的根本动机,对于制定有效的生态循环农业推广措施具有重要意义。文章基于湖北省391份农户调查数据,首先,在文献回顾的基础上提出市场收益、政策激励对农户生态循环农业从事意愿与行为影响路径的基本假设,并利用OLS方法分析市场收益和政策激励对农户从事生态循环农业意愿与行为的影响;其次,运用优势分析法评估市场收益类变量和政策激励类变量影响农户意愿与行为过程中的相对重要性;最后,通过交互效应检验市场收益类变量和政策激励类变量间的交互作用。结果表明:收入预期对农户从事生态循环农业的意愿与行为均有直接的积极影响,是促进农户从事生态循环农业的最重要的因素;焚烧秸秆惩罚政策和废弃物资源化补贴政策对农户从事生态循环农业的意愿有积极影响,沼气池建设补贴政策和废弃物资源化补贴政策对农户生态循环农业行为有促进作用;收入预期与废弃物资源化补贴政策在影响农户生态循环农业行为的过程中存在互补效应。本研究认为,市场收益是刺激农户采纳生态循环农业生产模式的首要因素,因此,要着力完善生态农业市场体系,增强生态农产品的市场竞争力,提升农户对生态循环农业的盈利信心;另外,政策激励对于农户采纳生态循环农业具有促进作用,应该做到约束与激励并行,同时注意加强农业政策的科学设计与落实执行。