Causasilty among wildfire,ENSO, timber harvest,and urban sprawl: The vector autoregression approach

This article demonstrates the applicability of vector autoregression (VAR) modeling in probing the causality relationships among wildfire, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), timber harvest, and urban sprawl in the U.S. The VAR approach allows for the multi-directional, multi-faceted interactions among the variables concerned and enables us to portray the temporal impacts of ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban sprawl on wildfire. The empirical analysis, though intended mainly for illustration, reveals that an individual factor may not affect wildfire activity (number of fires and area burned) when acting alone, but can significantly influence fire activity when coupled with other factors, and that wildfire activity has feedback effects on other variables. The impact of a change in ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban population density on wildfire activity could last two decades with the most noticeable impact occurring in the initial 5–10 years. Though ENSO, timber harvest, and urban sprawl all Granger-cause wildfire activity, the impulse response functions show that wildfire activity is more responsive to urban population density than to the volume of timber harvested or ENSO. Thus, controlling urban sprawl represents another option for wildfire mitigation; and integrative wildfire management is essential.     

Differential responses of honeybee (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis>) patrilines to changes in stimuli for the generalist tasks of nursing and foraging

Which task a social insect worker engages in is influenced by the worker’s age, genotype and the colony’s needs. In the honeybee, Apis mellifera, genotype influences both the age a worker switches tasks and its propensity of engaging in specialist tasks, such as water collecting, which only some workers will perform. In this study, we used colonies with natural levels of genetic diversity and manipulated colony age demography to drastically increase the stimuli for the generalist tasks of foraging and nursing, which all workers are thought to engage in at some point in their lives. We examined the representation of worker patrilines engaged in nursing and foraging before and after the perturbation. The representation of patrilines among foragers and nurses differed from that of their overall colony’s population. In the case of foraging, over- and underrepresentation of some patrilines was not simply due to differences in rates of development among patrilines. We show that replacement foragers tend to be drawn from patrilines that were overrepresented among foragers before the perturbation, suggesting that there is a genetic component to the tendency to engage in foraging. In contrast, the representation of patrilines in replacement nurses differed from that in the unperturbed nursing population. Our results show that there is a genetic influence on even the generalist tasks of foraging and nursing, and that the way patrilines in genetically diverse colonies respond to increases in task stimuli depends upon the task. The possible significance of this genetic influence on task allocation is discussed. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at doi: and is accessible to authorized users.     

红豆杉细胞抗病反应的诱导及其与紫杉醇合成的关系

采用从红豆杉植株不同部位（叶、内皮、根等）分离筛选获得的各种真菌制备的激发子，对6种不同红豆杉细胞株进行诱导作用研究。结果表明，不同细胞对不同真菌制备的激发子的抗病反应有显著的区别，并建立3种-具菌互作模式：极不相容（细胞抗性强，受损小），不相容（抗性强，受损也较严重），相容（细胞抗性小，受损严重）。结果还表明，极不相容和不相容互作模式中细胞的紫杉醇产量显著高于CK，而相容互作模式的细胞不合有紫杉, 同一真菌由不同的方法制备成的不同分子量大小或不同成分的激发子，对细胞的抗病反应与紫杉醇合成的影响不同,这些结果为诱导作用机理及调控红豆杉细胞合成紫杉醇的研究具有指导意义。     

Crop Failure in Dalocha, Ethiopia: A Participatory Emergency Response

This case study of an NGO's response to a food crisis due to crop failure focuses on the extent of active community participation at each stage of the project. With the current debate on the relationship between relief and development, and in particular the focus on encouraging more active community participation in relief responses, this study has relevance both in the Ethiopian context and beyond.
In this example the participation process was greatly facilitated by the prior relationship between the international NGO and the communities, and also by the high level of staff input into the project. Where resources or conditions are less favourable, as might be the case in similar responses by local NGOs or government agencies, the paper suggests that the participatory approach can be adapted or partially implemented and still result in a more effective and locally relevant operation.     

加速遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

提出了一般非线性自然灾害模型参数优化的一种通用的数值方法———加速遗传算法,分析了该算法控制参数的优化特性,总结出了这些参数的简便设置技术,并给出了它在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用实例。该方法可广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题。     

关于风景评价中心理物理学方法局限性的探讨

由于对西方风景评价理论和方法缺乏足够的了解和深入的研究，现今国内对其中的心理物理学方法及其作用产生了一些误解。本文在扼要介绍了心理物理学派的主要方法思路之后，着重对该学派所存在的重大理论缺陷和方法局限性做了较深入的分析。     

Randomized clinical trial of transabdominal versus transcervical chorionic villus sampling methods

The relative advantages and disadvantages of transabdominal (TA) and transcervical (TC) chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in terms of fetal risks and efficacy were evaluated in a clinical trial conducted on 1194 women randomized at 7–12 weeks' gestation. The results of the study indicate that, if any, the relative risk of fetal loss following either procedure is less than double that of the alternative technique when performed by a skilled operator. Overall, the fetal loss rate (spontaneous abortions following randomization, terminations of pregnancy, and perinatal deaths) is 16.5 and 15.5 per cent, respectively, among women allocated to TA- and TC-CVS. The two procedures are equally effective, although TA-CVS is associated with a significantly lower rate of repeat device insertions; on the other hand, a higher weight of chorionic tissue is obtained, on average, with TC-CVS. Bleeding is more common following TC-CVS, while peritoneal reaction developed only after TA-CVS. No diagnostic problems specifically related to one sampling technique were identified.     

华北地区大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)年际变化及其对土地利用/覆被变化的响应

大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))是大气污染的重要组成成分,对其影响因素进度探讨具有重要的意义.但目前来看,多数的研究都聚焦于PM_(2.5)与气象要素以及经济因素之间的关系,分析土地利用/覆被变化对PM_(2.5)影响的研究相对较少,需要进一步的深入探讨.基于PM_(2.5)空间分布数据及土地利用/覆被数据,对华北地区PM_(2.5)变化特征及土地利用/覆被变化特征进行了系统分析,并利用地理加权回归、GIS空间分析等手段探讨了PM_(2.5)变化与土地利用/覆被变化的响应关系,结果表明:①华北地区PM_(2.5)浓度整体呈现东南高、西北低的空间格局,且18a均保持这一态势没有变化.时间上来看,在2006年达到污染最大值,之后虽有波动但一直居高不下.多数城市PM_(2.5)浓度超标,整体环境污染形势严峻;②2000～2015年研究区土地利用类型/覆被以耕地、林地和草地为主,土地利用/覆被变化趋势主要表现为耕地的大量减少以及建设用地的持续增加,水域和未利用地面积略有减少,林地和草地转入转出面积接近,因而总量变化不大;③地理加权回归模型计算结果表明,Local R~2(衡量局部拟合度)较低的区域为土地利用/覆被未发生变化的区域,而在土地利用/覆被变化明显的区域,Local R~2较高,说明PM_(2.5)变化对土地利用/覆被变化有着显著的响应作用;④对于不同土地利用/覆被状况而言,PM_(2.5)分布特征表现出建设用地耕地水域草地林地未利用地的趋势.对于不同土地利用/覆被转换方式而言,当自然用地向人工用地转换时PM_(2.5)浓度上升,而人工用地向自然用地转变时PM_(2.5)浓度降低.     

超声波预处理对牛粪与玉米秸秆混合厌氧发酵特性的影响

为了探索超声波预处理提高厌氧发酵产气量的机理、优化超声波预处理工艺及分析超声波预处理的能量效益,利用因子分析法和通径分析研究不同发酵阶段各环境因子对发酵过程的影响,以及发酵初始环境与甲烷产量之间的关系.同时,用响应面优化法优化超声波预处理工艺,并且分析了超声波预处理的能量效益.结果表明,在40 k Hz和0.20 k W下,适宜的超声波预处理能显著提高厌氧发酵总产气量(p0.05),牛粪预处理17.68 min后与玉米秸秆预处理19.94 min混合发酵,甲烷产量最高为177.20 L·kg-1(以TS计),显著高于CK(未经预处理组,p0.05),其能量效益也最高,为1835.14 k J·kg-1(以TS计).超声波预处理通过改变发酵初始环境之间的相互关系和发酵过程环境的主要影响因素来使发酵系统更加稳定从而提高产气量.超声波预处理是一种能量输入的预处理方式,产气量高于CK处理组,但其能量效益不一定大于零.因此,在优化超声波预处理条件时必须对其能量效益进行分析.研究结果能为超声波预处理条件的优化方式提供理论依据.     

过氧化钙去除水中糖皮质激素的响应面分析

结合响应面方法Box-Behnken实验设计,对过氧化钙降解代表性糖皮质激素曲安奈德过程中的影响因素（过氧化钙投加量、溶液初始pH值、反应时间、糖皮质激素初始浓度）进行了探讨与分析,并对反应条件进行了优化.得出最优反应条件为：过氧化钙投加量4g/L;溶液初始pH值5.7,反应时间15.7min,初始TA浓度为0.06mmol/L.最优条件下模型预测的目标物降解率（88.6%）和实验得出的降解率（82.8%）数值接近,说明此响应面模型能够较准确预测过氧化钙对糖皮质激素的去除效果,并用电子顺磁共振仪对过氧化钙降解有机物过程中的作用自由基进行了检测.研究结果对过氧化钙技术去除有机污染物的发展有一定的参考价值.