基于AHP-模糊方法的某化工园区应急能力评估

化工园区应急能力评估是化工园区风险评估及应急管理的重要内容,化工园区建立应急能力评估体系一方面可以提高园区企业及管理部门的应急响应能力,另一方面可以增强政府各部门对事故的应急管理能力。在对某化工园区现场调研的基础上,结合国内外研究成果,确定了化工园区应急能力的多级指标,并运用AHP-模糊方法对该园区进行了应急能力评估。     

Unveiling soil degradation and desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin: a data mining analysis of the relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors in agro-forest landscapes

Soil degradation and desertification processes in the Mediterranean basin reflect the interplay between environmental and socioeconomic drivers. An approach to evaluate comparatively the multiple relationships between biophysical variables and socioeconomic factors is illustrated in the present study using the data collected from 586 field sites located in five Mediterranean areas (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). A total of 47 variables were chosen to illustrate land-use, farm characteristics, population pressure, tourism development, rainfall regime, water availability, soil properties and vegetation cover, among others. A data mining approach incorporating non-parametric inference, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering was developed to identify candidate syndromes of soil degradation and desertification risk. While field sites in the same study area showed a substantial similarity, the multivariate relationship among variables diverged among study areas. Data mining techniques proved to be a practical tool to identify spatial determinants of soil degradation and desertification risk. Our findings identify the contrasting spatial patterns for biophysical and socioeconomic variables, in turn associated with different responses to land degradation.     

1961—2010年新疆生长季节指数时空变化特征及其农业响应

在定义生长季节长度(GSL)、生长季节开始时间(LSF)以及生长季节结束时间(FFF)三个生长季节指数的基础上,采用模糊聚类、稳健回归及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析新疆1961—2010年生长季节指数时空变化特征,并针对作物生长季节指数变化对区域农业生产的影响进行了深入探讨。结果表明:新疆20世纪90年代中期,GSL变化幅度很大,低纬地区生长季节受低温影响较小,而随纬度上升,中高纬地区生长季节受低温影响越大。生长季节长度的变化与秋季低温(生长季节结束时间)变化情况紧密相连,全疆生长季节长度在80%的保证率下,较多年平均生长季节长度缩短5~14 d。生长季节长度的延长,会导致净初级生产力以及年蒸散发总量上升,继而影响水文、生态系统以及生物地球化学过程。     

How communities' perceptions of disasters influence disaster response: managing landslides on Mount Elgon,Uganda

The aim of this paper is to assess the role of people's perception in disaster management. It is based on a study carried out along the slopes of Mount Elgon in Eastern Uganda. People living in the study area have experienced a number of landslides, but the landslide in 2010 had the most far‐reaching effects on community livelihoods and resulted in a major setback to development efforts in the area. Experiences of landslides have enabled the local people to develop a number of interpretations of the causes and effects of the phenomena. The study revealed that community members did not share uniform perceptions. Whereas some members advanced technical or physical explanations for the 2010 disaster, others believed that some form of divine power was behind it. Strengthening social networks and integrating communities' perceptions in intervention mechanisms were identified as possible ways of managing future landslide disasters.     

大山包黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的行为反应研究

利用警戒距离和惊飞距离两个指标来反映黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的耐受性。实验表明人数的不同对黑颈鹤的惊飞距离有所不同。研究还表明游客的干扰类型以喧哗为主,占总数的73.10%。噪音分贝对黑颈鹤的警戒距离有极显著影响(p=0.0000.05)。为了在提高游客旅游体验的同时,消除旅游活动对黑颈鹤的不利影响,建议最小接近区域面积=π×39.112=4802.92m2,该区域范围内限制游客进入,并在外围设立障碍物。     

贵州普定陈旗喀斯特泉的降雨-径流响应特征分析

本文以贵州省普定县陈旗喀斯特泉流量为研究对象,采用相关分析和谱分析方法,分析降雨-出口泉流量的响应特征,统计结果表明,该喀斯特流域出口处泉流量对降雨表现出三种响应滞时,分别为短时段、中等时段和长时段响应。对应的响应滞时长度分别为2~4 h、47~49 h和176~290 h。对比流域山坡上部和坡脚两处降雨-泉流量响应特征,结合野外水文地质调查与实验,分析了表层岩溶带发育厚度、多重裂隙渗透性等水文地质条件对降雨-泉流量响应特征的影响机制。山坡上部表层岩溶带厚度较薄,且表层裂隙更为发育,导致山坡上部泉对降雨的响应更迅速,各时段滞时均小于全流域对应时段滞时。     

我国持久性有机污染物污染事故预警指标体系构建

面对严峻的持久性有机污染物(persistent organic pollutants,POPs)环境污染问题,以及不断提升的化学品风险管理要求,我国对于POPs污染事故预警管理的需求日益迫切.基于生命周期理论及POPs生成机制,针对不同的POPs和污染事故的种类,构建出POPs污染事故的预警指标体系,以期为完善我国POPs污染事故预警管理提供决策支持.预警指标体系主要包括两部分:POPs预警指标和运行保障机制.POPs预警指标包括了警源指标、警兆指标和警度指标.为保障预警体系的有效实施,构建了预警响应机制及政策保障机制,包括对风险源的动态清单管理和定期评估,及时有效的警情上报,各部门的协调合作等.     

江苏及邻区中强震前的非线性失稳特征及地震趋势分析

加卸载响应比是一个表征非线性系统失稳程度的量,在国内外的地震预报中已有广泛的应用。本文选用江苏及邻区（Ｎ３０°００′～３６°００′,Ｅ１１７°００′～１２３°３０′）１９７０ ０１～１９９８ ０９的地震资料,研究了该区域内５级以上地震（共１２个）前的加卸载响应比变化的特点,并对未来的地震趋势作了估计。研究结果表明：１２个震例中有１１个震前有明显的响应比异常;异常的平均持续时间为８．５个月;异常的最大值绝大多数在１０之内;异常最大值出现时间至发震时间多数是在１～２．５年之间。研究结果对今后在预报工作中认清该地区非线性失稳的特点,提高预报效率有重要的参考价值。     

Innate antipredator responses of Arctic charr (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis>) depend on predator species and their diet

The ability to discriminate between more dangerous and less dangerous predators can have serious fitness advantages for fish juveniles. This is especially true for hatchery-reared fish young used for stocking, because their post-release mortality is often much higher than that of wild-born conspecifics. We tested whether two coexisting fish predators and their different diets induce innate behavioral responses in predator-naive Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) young originating from an endangered hatchery-bred population used for re-introductions. We predicted the antipredator responses of charr to be stronger towards chemical cues of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca) than towards odorless control water. More pronounced antipredator behavior was predicted in treatments with predators fed on charr than when their diet consisted of another sympatric salmonid, European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), or when they were food-deprived. The Arctic charr young showed strong antipredator responses in all brown trout treatments, whereas odors of the less likely predator pikeperch were avoided with conspecific diet only. Freezing was the most sensitive antipredator behavior, as it was completely absent in control treatments. We found considerable individual variation in the amount and strength of antipredator responses. Although almost half of the charr failed to show antipredator behavior towards the piscivores, those with the innate ability showed highly sensitive recognition of predator odors. Our results indicate that the innate antipredator behavior of the juvenile fish is already finely tuned to respond specifically to chemical cues from different fish predators and even their diets.Communicated by J. Krause     

Water and sediment toxicity assessment by use of behavioural responses of medicinal leeches

Behaviour has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of chemically induced stress and pathology in aquatic organisms. However, ecotoxicological investigations on medicinal leech are restricted because of scarce leech resources in natural waters. We used artificially bred medicinal leech (Hirudo medicinalis L.) of two different ages: young (1-2 weeks old) and adult leeches (1 year old). Animals were exposed to: (1) waters of Lake Drukshiai-the cooler of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, (2) sediments of the river Nemunas and (3) solution of heavy metal model mixture (HMMM). The following behavioural responses of leech were investigated: mobility (number of moving individuals within certain periods of time), avoidance response (number of individuals escaping the tested water or sediments) changes in body shape (contractions of some muscles, abnormal position of suckers) and feeding activity (longevity of attachment process, interruptions of feeding bouts, size of blood meal). Mobility of young leeches was increased in the tested waters of Lake Drukshiai, whereas adult leeches showed no changes of this index. Avoidance response as well as impaired feeding activity (prolonged attachment process or completely suppressed attachment reflex, decreased size of blood meal) was observed in young leeches exposed to the waters from Lake Drukshiai and in adult animals exposed to all three kind of trials mentioned above. Avoidance response and changes in mobility were recorded during the first hour of exposure to tested samples; therefore, these responses can be used as an express method for water and sediment pollution assessment. Impaired feeding activity was recorded after 1-3-week exposure: this response may be used in assessing a chronic toxicity of pollution. Medicinal leech, due to its sensitivity, simplicity of measured indices and ease of laboratory maintenance, can be used as a test organism in ecotoxicity studies.