武汉城市圈城镇化生态环境响应的时空演变研究

城镇化与生态环境这一交互关系,是两者彼此响应的耦合产物。研究城镇化发展与生态环境间的响应胁迫关系,具有重要的理论与实际意义。本文以武汉城市圈为研究对象,通过建立城镇化与生态环境的综合评价指标体系,构建生态环境响应模型,对"两型社会"战略提出后武汉城市圈城镇化生态环境响应的时空演变进行分析。主要结论如下:12008-2013年,武汉城市圈城镇化发展态势良好,整个城市圈城镇化综合水平逐年稳步上升,增长速度加快。生态环境综合指数呈现先下降,后维持稳定,再上升的"U型"变化曲线,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。2武汉城市圈生态环境对城镇化的响应,呈现出由负响应向正响应转化的特征,生态环境对城镇化发展总体上呈现出由"胁迫"到"促进"的转变。A值越来越大,由2008年的-0.9上升到2013年的1.66。H值则呈现先降低后上升的变化特征,由2008年的0.9降低到2010年的0.09,2013年迅速提升到1.71,表明生态环境对城镇化发展总体上呈现由"胁迫"到"促进"变化的发展趋势。资源环境压力、资源环境载荷对城镇化的发展呈现出由负响应向正响应转变的特征,资源环境绩效对城镇化的发展具有正响应的特征。3武汉城市圈生态环境综合响应指数的空间分异特征,由以正响应为主的"凹陷"结构向分化的"板块"结构演化,生态环境综合响应指数的区域差异呈先扩大、后缩小趋势,城镇化的发展对生态环境的影响程度为"弱促进"向"强胁迫"变化。资源环境载荷响应指数和绩效响应指数表现出"向心性"的发展特征。     

Development of a Grassland Integrity Index Based on Breeding Bird Assemblages

We utilized landscape and breeding bird assemblage data from three Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes sampled from 1965–1995 to develop and test a grassland integrity index (GII) in a mixed-grass prairie area of Oklahoma. The overall study region is extensively fragmented from long-term agricultural activity, and native habitat remnants have been degraded by recent encroachment of woody vegetation, namely eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.). The 50 individual bird survey points along the BBS routes, known as stops, were used as sample sites. Our process first focused on developing a grassland disturbance index (GDI) as a measure of cumulative landscape disturbances for these sites. The GDI was based on five key landscape variables identified in an earlier species-level study of long-term avian community dynamics: total tree, shrub, and herbaceous vegetation cover indices, overall mean landscape patch size, and grassland patch core size. The GII was then developed based on breeding bird assemblage data. Assemblages were based on commonly used response guilds reflective of five avian life history parameters: foraging mode/location, nesting location, habitat specificity, migratory pattern, and dietary guild. We tested the response of 78 candidate assemblage metrics to the GDI, and eliminated those with no or poor response or with high correlations (redundant), resulting in 13 metrics for use in the final index. Individual metric scores were scaled to fall between 0 and 10, and the cumulative index to range from 0 to 100. Although broader application and refinement are possible, the avian-based GII has an advantage over labor-intensive, habitat-based monitoring in that the GII is derived from readily available long-term BBS data. Therefore, the GII shows promise as an inexpensive tool that could easily be applied over other areas to monitor changes in regional grassland conditions.     

Continue to blame it on the rain? Conceptualization of drought and failure of food systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

Food insecurity continues to be prevalent in parts of Africa. In December 2015, there were approximately 21.6 million food insecure people in the Horn and East Africa. Climate change is likely to exacerbate current volatility of agricultural production and lead to further food insecurity. Whilst the academic literature has acknowledged the complexity of food insecurity and systems, it is not clear to what extent this has been translated into practice. We argue that there is a tendency to explain complex failures of food systems as ‘droughts’, with insufficient attention paid to other drivers. We analyse humanitarian documents and climate outlook statements in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and assess how these are reflected in the humanitarian responses to food insecurity in the region by analysing the financing of humanitarian operations. Our findings indicate that the continued evolution in understanding the complex causes of food insecurity and attempts to move away from emergency relief to a more sophisticated approach has not translated into an observable change in humanitarian responses. The reasons behind this persistence of short-term relief, which is being justified with reference to climatic factors, mainly drought, would warrant further research into the decision-making process that triggers humanitarian responses.

List of abbreviations: ACF: Action Contre le Faim; DCM: Drought Cycle Management; DEC: Disaster Emergency Committee; ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Office; EU: European Union; EWS: Early Warning System; FAO: Food and Agricultural Organization; FEWSNET: Famine Early Warning System Network; FSNAU: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit; FTS: Financial Tracking Service; GHACOF: Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum; GIEWS: Global Information and Early Warning System; IASC: Inter Agency Standing Committee; ICPAC: IGAD Climate Application and Prediction Centre; IFRC: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority on Development; IPCC: International Panel for Climate Change; LEWS: Livestock Early Warning System; ODI: Overseas Development Initiative; PASDEP: Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to Eradicate Poverty; PSNP: Productive Safety Net Programme; UNDRO: United Nations Disaster Relief Office; UNISDR: United Nations International; UN OCHA: United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; USAID: United States Agency for International Development; WFP: World Food Programme     

浙江省台风灾害及应急机制建设

针对浙江省特殊的地理位置和气候条件，研究分析了台风灾害的特点以及应急机制建设的情况。在此基础上，提出了提高预防台风灾害能力的建议。     

近场长周期强地震动幅值谱研究

本文研究了近场长周期强地震动加速度的傅氏谱和功率谱模型及其参数估计方法,基于强地震动参数统计上的无向性,提出了一种结合地震学模拟模型和工程学统计回归模型的综合方法。文中定义了强地震动平稳段均方根加速度的计算方法,并通过均方根加速度建立了震源力学参数和强地震动工程参数间的关系。通过对目前使用的主观持时定义的应用分析,指出主观持时定义使得估计的地震动过程的峰值加速度的变异性与实际地震动过程的峰值加速度的变异性有显著不同,明显偏小,这对于结构抗震可靠度分析可能会得到失效概度偏小的结果,应引起工程界的重视。     

高邮地磁台加卸载响应比与江苏及邻近地区的地震预测

研究分析了高邮地磁台1980～2001年观测资料的加卸载响应比异常与江苏及邻近地区ML5.0以上地震之间的关系,提出了适用于高邮地磁台的地震分析预报参数,并对其内检预报效能进行了评价。     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.