Combining state and transition models with dynamic Bayesian networks

Bashari et al. (2009) propose combining state and transition models (STMs) with Bayesian networks for decision support tools where the focus is on modelling the system dynamics. There is already an extension of Bayesian networks - so-called dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) - for explicitly modelling systems that change over time, that has also been applied in ecological modelling. In this paper we propose a combination of STMs and DBNs that overcome some of the limitations of Bashari et al.’s approach including providing an explicit representation of the next state, while retaining its advantages, such an the explicit representation of transitions. We then show that the new model can be applied iteratively to predict into the future consistently with different time frames. We use Bashari et al.’s rangeland management problem as an illustrative case study. We present a comparative complexity analysis of the different approaches, based on the structure inherent in the problem being modelled. This analysis showed that any models that explicitly represent all the transitions only remain tractable when there are natural constraints in the domain. Thus we recommend modellers should analyse these aspects of their problem before deciding whether to use the framework.     

Rangeland dynamics in southern Ethiopia: (3). Assessment of rangeland condition in relation to land-use and distance from water in semi-arid Borana rangelands

The condition of the semi-arid Borana rangeland in southern Ethiopia was assessed by studying different land-use systems (communal land, a government ranch and a traditional grazing reserve enclosure) and along a distance gradient (near, middle and far) from water sources. The assessment incorporated the soil, herbaceous and woody plant layers. Two methods were employed to evaluate the grass layer, viz. ecological condition index (ECI) and weighted palatability composition (WPC). The ECI on the government ranch was 21.7% and 26% greater than that of the traditional reserve and the communal land, respectively. The WPC on the government ranch was 83.3% and 48.6% greater than that of the communal area and the traditional reserve, respectively. Both ECI and WPC values were similar for all distance sites from water. Tree equivalent (TE) density, of all encroaching woody plants combined, was higher on the communal land (504 TE ha(-1)) than the government ranch (373 TE ha(-)1) and traditional grazing reserve (118 TE ha(-1)), but with no marked variations in the distance sites from water. Height class distribution of encroaching woody plants in the study areas showed the largest abundance (range: >50-100%) at the height class >0-2m. Tree equivalents per hectare of encroaching woody plants were negatively correlated (r = -0.60) with ECI and WPC and positively correlated (r=0.87) with percentage bare ground. The correlation (r = 0.50) between percentage bare ground and soil compaction was positive and low. Although the government ranch had a greater composition of highly palatable grass species than the other land uses, the rangeland was not in good condition due to severe bush encroachment. The communal land was generally in poor condition. In the traditional grazing reserve, bush encroachment was not a problem, but the productivity of the grass layer was poor when assessed on the basis of ecological and palatability merits. The negative interaction of TE density of all encroaching woody plants combined with ECI or WPC and the positive interaction with bare ground, may suggest that the abundance of these species is more critical in aggravating deterioration in grassland productivity. Therefore, the priority of any bush control program must be towards minimizing the abundance of these woody plants.     

对高寒牧区定居聚落生态系统的初步探讨

本文以川西北牧区为例，探讨了定居聚落生态系统的结构、功能和特点，并针对目前川西北高寒牧区定居聚落生态系统存在的主要问题提出了一些对策建议。     

Institutional development for sustainable rangeland resource and ecosystem management in mountainous areas of northern Nepal

Rangelands represent one of the most important natural resources in mountainous regions of northern Nepal. However, a poor understanding of the social dimensions of rangeland use has limited their proper management and sustainable development, which represent major challenges for Nepal's resource managers. Institutional development is thought to be a viable solution to this problem and may ultimately lead to improved rangeland management in Nepal. Based on this hypothesis, a study was conduced in the Rasuwa district of northern Nepal to examine the effectiveness of institutional development at the local and national levels in mitigating the problems facing sustainable rangeland management by using an institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework. The information and data were mainly collected from different stakeholders, farmers, professionals and practitioners using a toolkit of participatory rural appraisal (PRA), workshops and literature review. It can be concluded from this case study that a number of institutional development efforts are needed to promote sustainable rangeland management in this region. First, local herders represent a repository of rich indigenous knowledge essential to sustaining sound rangeland management practices; hence, indigenous practices need to be integrated into modern technologies. Second, public services and technical support are currently unavailable or inaccessible to local herders; hence, research, development and extension interventions need to be initiated for marginalized pastoral communities. Third, rangeland institutions are incomplete and ill-organized, so institutional development of various organizations is necessary for promoting sustainable rangeland management. Fourth, the policies and governance necessary for promoting rangeland management are not well-designed; hence, governance reform and policy development need to be formulated through internal and external agencies and organizations.     

Cattle-rangeland management practices and perceptions of pastoralists towards rangeland degradation in the Borana zone of southern Ethiopia

A survey was conducted in the Borana pastoral areas of southern Ethiopia to assess current livestock production systems, rangeland management practices and the perceptions of the pastoralists towards rangeland degradation. This information is considered vital to future pastoral development planning and interventions. Data were collected from a total of 20 villages that were identified from 5 peasant associations, namely Did Yabello, Moyatte, Did Harra, Dubuluk and Melbana. The average household size in the study area was 7.23. The majority of the pastoralists relied on both livestock and crop farming. The average livestock holding per household was 14 cattle, 10 goats, 6 sheep and 2 camels. Livestock holdings, with the exception of camels, has shown a declining trend over time. The two most important traditional rangeland management strategies adopted by the pastoralists included burning and mobility, but since 1974/75 burning has no longer been practised. With regard to mobility, the livestock herding falls in two categories, namely: home based and satellite herding. The former involves the herding of milking cows, calves and immature animals (<2 years) close to the encampments. The latter constitutes the herding of bulls and immatures (>2 years) further away from the encampments. Based on the pastoralists' perceptions, the major constraints on livestock production in descending order, were recurrent drought, feed and water scarcity, animal diseases, predators and communal land ownership. All the respondents considered the condition of the rangelands to have declined dramatically over time. In the past most development policies were based on equilibrium theories that opposed the communal use of the rangelands and traditional range management practices. The way in which the pastoral system affects the rangeland ecosystem functioning is contentious to this theory and the 'tragedy of the commons'. There was also a perceived problem of bush encroachment and the ban on traditional burning practices and recurrent droughts were seen as aggravating factors to this invasion process. The increasing practice of crop cultivation on the rangelands was identified as a serious threat to future livestock production and traditional resource management practices. Suggestions for possible interventions to improve the productivity and sustainable use of these rangelands are made.     

Rangeland dynamics in southern Ethiopia: (1) botanical composition of grasses and soil characteristics in relation to land-use and distance from water in semi-arid Borana rangelands

The distribution and compositional pattern of the grass layer, as well as soil quality of southern Ethiopian semi-arid rangelands were examined under three land-use systems (communal land, government ranch and a traditional grazing reserve enclosure) and along a distance gradient (near, middle and far) from water sources. In total, 49 grass species were identified, 65% of which were perennials. Of the most commonly distributed highly desirable species, Chrysopogon aucheri showed the greatest frequency under the traditional grazing reserve (27.6%), and the lowest in the communal land (14.0%). The frequency of Cenchrus ciliaris was similar in all the study sites. The proportion of Lepthotrium senegalensis was low under the land-use systems (3.9%) and increased away from water sources (2.3%). Of the less desirable species, Sporobulus nervosus was extremely more abundant (<0.05) in the communal land (13.3%) than the traditional grazing reserve (3.3%) and the government ranch (1.9%). Sporobolus pyramidalis was dominant in the study sites, with similar (P>0.05) frequency percentages under the land-use systems and along the distance gradients from water. Basal cover was low and similar on all the study sites (3.3%). Concerning the soil texture, sand (71.1%) constituted the largest proportion, followed by silt (21.3%) and lastly, clay (7.7%). With regard to soil exchangeable cations, organic C and total nitrogen were generally low and did not show marked variation in all the study sites. The study showed significant differences for most of the vegetation variables between the communal land and the other land-uses. This suggested that grazing intensity was higher in the communal land and moderate in the government ranch and in the traditional grazing reserves (kallos). The lack of significant differences in most of the studied (vegetation) variables along the distance gradient from water could be ascribed to the fact that grazing disturbance has already exceeded a certain threshold of degradation. Under the present low states of soil nutrients and rainfall, cultivation is neither sustainable nor environmentally friendly and this will lead to further degradation of the soil in these marginal lands.