基于最大谱的非平稳随机振动数据分析处理方法研究

目的解决非平稳随机振动环境实测数据无法采用功率谱密度分析方法的问题。方法基于最小均方误差准则,归纳总结FFT和数字滤波两种最大谱分析方法。通过对比两种方法在不同分辨率带宽时计算的优缺点,并分析其误差。对优选出来的最大谱分析方法进行举例验证。结果理论分析和仿真结果均表明基于比例分辨率带宽的FFT最大谱分析方法的误差最小。将FFT最大谱分析方法应用于某型炸弹9个架次自由飞振动数据的处理和环境条件确定中,结果合理有效。结论可用比例分辨率带宽的FFT法分析非平稳随机振动环境实测数据,为基于最大谱制定型号振动环境试验条件提供指导。     

贵州省闪电定位资料中小幅值地闪范围研究

采用2006—2015年贵州省ADTD闪电定位资料,应用Matlab软件中的曲线拟合工具箱对数据进行对数正态分布拟合,利用非参数正态分布检验中的Kolmogorov—Smirnov检验方法(简称K-S检验方法)分析各区间拟合效果,最终确定贵州省闪电定位系统资料的"小幅值地闪"干扰区间为-10~2k A,该结论为贵州省闪电资料修正提供理论依据,在使用ADTD闪电定位资料时可先将此区间误差数据剔除。该研究为利用闪电定位资料确定雷电灾害风险区划提供重要参考。     

Adapting to new policy environment – past pattern and future trend in us-sino waste plastic trade flow

Plastics are one of the most used materials in human activities, where consumer consumption and industrial production together has imposed vast rise in demand for this material in last century. While plastic is ideally derived from crude oil as a primary source from manufacturers’ perspective, varying crude oil prices are driving manufacturers economically to seek for alternative sources for plastics production. Waste plastic recovered from obsolete consumer products thus becomes an economic substitution for virgin plastics, which is further intensified with the possibility of international waste plastic trading. This study focuses on waste plastic trade between the US and mainland China by performing a correlation analysis of trade data. It is suggested in this study that although waste plastics are traded from the US to mainland China in general, as many of us believes, the route is gradually shifting in the past years. With tightening Chinese customs regulations, waste plastic from the US now tends to take a transit in a third destination (Hong Kong SAR for instance) for preliminary treatment to bypass Chinese customs inspection. Such phenomenon is worth noting, as a complication in waste plastic trading route hinders waste plastic transboundary movement monitoring. Furthermore, it will have adverse consequent consumer, industrial, and environmental impacts. It is thus necessary for national competent authorities to strengthen cooperative study and communication capacity in the future as a response to the changing waste plastic trade pattern.     

生态毒理数据筛查与评价准则研究

化学品生态风险评价和水质基准研究需要大量生态毒理数据,由于目前关于化学品毒性效应的研究较多,不同文献对同一测试终点的报道常常存在一定的差异,数据选择不当会直接影响最终评价结果。为了降低专业人员在数据筛选过程中的主观影响,有必要制定一套科学合理、操作性强的数据筛查与评价准则。本文整理比较了美国、荷兰、德国和澳大利亚等4个国家的5个毒理数据筛查与评价方法,并以荷兰的CRED方法为主,结合另外4个筛选方法以及现有的水质基准推导指南和生态风险评价技术导则,从可靠性、相关性、精确性三个方面详细阐述了数据质量评价标准与使用规范。其中数据质量评价包括五个方面:(1)实验设计,包括测试标准、操作规程、数据有效性、对照组设置;(2)实验试剂的纯度及其杂质的物理化学性质;(3)受试生物的基本信息和来源;(4)暴露条件,包括试验系统、暴露浓度设置及变化、暴露时间、生物负荷;(5)数据分析,包括平行样、统计分析方法、浓度-效应关系、原始数据;数据使用规范主要考虑受试生物、测试终点和暴露场景与评价目标的相关性,以及生态风险评价和水质基准推导对数据精确性的要求。这些均可为我国从事生态风险评价和水质基准研究的工作人员提供有益借鉴,使数据筛选过程更加客观、统一,同时还可以作为毒理实验论文撰写依据,提高数据报道质量。     

A generalized approach for producing,quantifying, and validating citizen science data from wildlife images

Citizen science has the potential to expand the scope and scale of research in ecology and conservation, but many professional researchers remain skeptical of data produced by nonexperts. We devised an approach for producing accurate, reliable data from untrained, nonexpert volunteers. On the citizen science website www.snapshotserengeti.org , more than 28,000 volunteers classified 1.51 million images taken in a large‐scale camera‐trap survey in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Each image was circulated to, on average, 27 volunteers, and their classifications were aggregated using a simple plurality algorithm. We validated the aggregated answers against a data set of 3829 images verified by experts and calculated 3 certainty metrics—level of agreement among classifications (evenness), fraction of classifications supporting the aggregated answer (fraction support), and fraction of classifiers who reported “nothing here” for an image that was ultimately classified as containing an animal (fraction blank)—to measure confidence that an aggregated answer was correct. Overall, aggregated volunteer answers agreed with the expert‐verified data on 98% of images, but accuracy differed by species commonness such that rare species had higher rates of false positives and false negatives. Easily calculated analysis of variance and post‐hoc Tukey tests indicated that the certainty metrics were significant indicators of whether each image was correctly classified or classifiable. Thus, the certainty metrics can be used to identify images for expert review. Bootstrapping analyses further indicated that 90% of images were correctly classified with just 5 volunteers per image. Species classifications based on the plurality vote of multiple citizen scientists can provide a reliable foundation for large‐scale monitoring of African wildlife.     

Development and Application of Software Tools for Monitoring, Assessment and Reporting of Data Concerning the Operation of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants in Cyprus

This work focuses on the development and application of appropriate software tools for recording, assessing and reporting data related to the operation of the Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants (UWTPs) in Cyprus. An appropriate Internet-Based Management System was designed, developed and installed at the premises of the UWTPs and of the Cypriot Competent Authority (Water Development Department — WDD) in order to coordinate and disseminate tasks and related information for monitoring the operation of UWTPs. In addition, a client Geographical Information System database was compiled to be used for obtaining and analyzing spatial information. The software tools are based on common procedures and state-of-the-art technology for the recording and transmission of data and information and they provide an integrated view related to the operation and the efficiency of wastewater treatment systems. Moreover, continuous control and systematic monitoring of the UWTPs by the operators as well as continuous and direct supervision of the UWTPs environmental performance is achieved by the personnel of the Competent Authority. Furthermore, direct and unobstructed provision of data to the Competent Authority of Cyprus is accomplished by the operators of the UWTPs, while the Competent Authority is supported to compose full and representative reports to the European Commission and other International Organizations. The developed tools enable the direct recording of data obtained through measurements and analyses, permit the comparison of data with existing legislation and provide an integrated picture of the operation of the wastewater treatment plants as well as the option to focus and assess each individual treatment stage.     

When are historical data sufficient for making watershed-level stream fish management and conservation decisions?

Addressing landscape-level threats to stream fishes such as habitat and hydrological alterations requires adequate watershed-level species inventories. Where watershed-level ichthyofaunal surveys are prohibitively expensive, existing (historical) data sources may provide an option for compiling species lists. However, it is critical that managers consider potential biases or limitations of species lists compiled from existing data. Here we assess the suitability of species lists compiled from existing data sources for making watershed-level fish management and conservation decisions. For nine Great Lakes watersheds, we developed existing species lists by compiling all available federal and state agency and museum fish survey data. We then compared the size and species composition of existing species lists to current species lists compiled from intensive field surveys, conducted in 2002, of the same watersheds. Species lists compiled from commonly available existing data sources, such as state and federal agency and museum data, missed many species detected during our 2002 field surveys. In most watersheds, more than 10 species were missed (range 5–21) on existing lists. Sampling over multiple years and seasons increased the size of both current (field) and existing species lists. Existing species lists compiled from surveys conducted over multiple years and seasons included an average of 15 species not captured during the 2002 field surveys. However, such multiyear existing datasets are rare and not available for many watersheds. In addition, species lists compiled from older existing surveys (e.g., before 1984) did not accurately represent current species composition of the watersheds and our results indicate several apparent misidentifications or errors on these lists. Lastly, while most game species were detected on existing lists, migratory species and recently introduced species were commonly missed on these lists. We conclude with recommendations for using existing data for watershed-level stream fish management and conservation decisions.     

神经网络模型森林生物量遥感估测方法的研究

森林生物量的估测是全球变化研究的基础,而遥感宏观、综合、动态、快速的特点决定了基于遥感的生物量模型为森林生物量估测的发展方向,目前的遥感生物量估测方法大多基于回归分析,需要预先假设、事后检验,仅为经验性的统计模型。神经网络的分布并行处理、非线性映射、自适应学习和容错等特性,使其具有独特的信息处理和计算能力,在机制尚不清楚的高维非线性系统体现出强大优势,可以用于遥感生物量估测。文章在野外调查的基础上,尝试应用BP网络和RBF网络技术,建立广州TM遥感影像数据与森林样方生物量实测数据之间的神经网络模型,通过训练和仿真,与生物量实测数据进行比较。结果表明,在独立样地估测中,人工神经网络估测的相对误差均小于15.18%,获得了满意的效果。而RBF网络与BP网络相比,在识别精度上、稳定性、速度上,均优于BP网络,其最大相对误差不超过10.12%,平均相对误差为4.76%。可见应用神经网络方法的“黑箱”操作虽然难以归纳出指导性规律,但可以获得很高的精度。尤其RBF网络,在训练完成后,可以应用该模型进行大区域生物量估算,对于森林的规划及管理具有深远意义。