Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.     

便携β射线法手工监测PM_(2.5)的可行性研究

提出利用自动射线原理结合重量法的简捷便携特点的便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的思路,平行比对了便携射线法和手工重量法所测60组PM2.5浓度的监测结果,采用线性回归及T检验、F检验等理论分析了两者数据结果间的有效性和可比性。结果表明,便携式射线仪监测结果与重量法监测结果之间有效可比且得到了两者间的线性回归方程;此外进行了20组数据的实样验证,换算值和真值之间相对误差在8%以内,因而确定了便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的可行性。     

AERMOD与估算模式在环境影响评价中的应用与比较

采用AERMOD和估算模式两种预测模式对同一生活垃圾填埋场进行了预测。比较两种预测结果可以看出,在污染源、预测范围、运行周期相同的情况下,敏感点处的落地浓度均与排放源强呈正比,与距离呈反比。预测结果同时说明,估算模式是一种保守的预测模式,其预测结果比AERMOD模式大,可作为进一步预测模式的有效补充。     

Scale-up modeling of the twin roll casting process for AZ31 magnesium alloy

In the present study, a 2-D finite-element method (FEM) thermal-fluid-stress model has been developed and validated for the twin roll casting (TRC) of AZ31 magnesium alloy. The model was then used to quantify how the thermo-mechanical history experienced by the strip during TRC would change as the equipment was scaled up from a laboratory size (roll diameter = 355 mm) to a pilot scale (roll diameter = 600 mm) and to an industrial scale (roll diameter = 1150 mm) machine. The model predictions showed that the thermal history and solidification cooling rate experienced by the strip are not affected significantly by caster scale-up. However, the mechanical history experienced by the strip did change remarkably depending on the roll diameters. Casting with bigger rolls led to the development of higher stress levels at the strip surface. The roll separating force/mm width of strip was also predicted to increase significantly when the TRC was scaled to larger sizes. Using the model predicted results, the effect of both casting speed and roll diameter was integrated into an empirical equation to predict the exit temperature and the roll separating force for AZ31. Using this approach, a TRC process map was generated for AZ31 which included roll diameter and casting speed.     

基于Tripod Beta事故模型的触电事故原因分析

应用Tripod Beta事故模型对某厂触电事故进行了深入分析,得到了事故原因,并提出预防类似事故的建议措施。     

燃煤电厂锅炉PM2.5排放危害度评价模型建立及案例分析

为评价燃煤电厂锅炉PM2.5排放的危害度,根据颗粒的形成机制及对环境和人体健康的影响程度,将PM2.5进行了粒径分段,综合考虑不同粒径段颗粒物的质量浓度、粒数浓度、汞相对富集因子及汞元素在煤灰分中含量,建立了燃煤锅炉PM2.5排放危害度综合评价模型,最后利用已有文献现场实验测得的数据对评价模型进行了案例分析,并提出了危害度削减系数概念,可用于对除尘装置进行评价.     

铜对草鱼及花鲢的毒性预测：基于生物配体模型

试验配置不同胡敏酸浓度(DOC浓度为0.05、0.5、1、2、4 mg·L-1)下,分别对草鱼及花鲢进行铜的一系列96 h生物急性毒性试验,结果表明DOC浓度与LC50呈正相关关系,此与生物配体模型描述一致.利用两鱼种(Fathead minnow、Rainbow trout)的生物配体模型预测草鱼及花鲢的LC50,得出平均绝对偏差分别为591.2、157.14μg·L-1及728.18、91.24μg·L-1.在生物配体模型(biotic ligand model,BLM)铜形态分布平台下,得到草鱼及花鲢的LA50(以湿重计)依次为10.960nmol·g-1和3.978 nmol·g-1.通过校正草鱼及花鲢的LA50,得出平均绝对偏差依次为280.52μg·L-1和92.25μg·L-1,预测性能显著提高.基于所确立的LA50,通过搜集草鱼及花鲢的毒性数据,预测其LC50,得到平均绝对偏差分别为252.37μg·L-1和50.26μg·L-1,此证实基于生物配体模型的毒性预测具有一定的实用性.     

气象因素对广州市大气中二噁英污染特征的影响

采用高分辨气相色谱/高分辨质谱仪测定了广州市环境空气中2,3,7,8-PCDD/Fs的含量,并对其来源进行初步分析.重点研究了广州市大气二噁英浓度的空间和季节分布特征,分析其毒性当量浓度变化与气象因素的相关性,并利用美国空气资源实验室的拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型对气流轨迹进行模拟,为了解广州市大气二噁英污染状况提供重要的基础数据.结果表明,工业区的二噁英浓度高于其他功能区;大气二噁英毒性当量浓度最高值出现在春季;风向和风速、温度和气压、相对湿度、降水等气象因素都会对大气二噁英的污染程度产生影响,温度、风速与大气二噁英浓度呈负相关,但相关性不明显;经过气团后向轨迹分析,秋季气流轨迹主要往西北地区延伸,冬季大气团运移较慢,主要来自内陆地区,春夏季节气流主要经过东南沿海或海面到达广州.     

京津冀区域生产和消费CO2排放的时空特点分析

区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.     

BP神经网络在再生水补给密云水库水质评价中的应用

基于环境质量基本模型,将补给的再生水视为点源污染,建立了再生水补给后的湖库污染物浓度变化模型.在得到补给后主要污染物稳定浓度的基础上,建立BP神经网络模型,使用随机数发生器生成随机数据作为模型的学习样本和检验样本以满足BP模型对样本数量的需求.使用BP模型对再生水补给后的水质进行评价,评价结果证明了再生水补给的可行性与相对安全性.