EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

冀南野生木本资源植物研究

冀南产野生木本资源植物200种，隶属43科91属。其中超过5种的科有13个，蔷薇科30种最多，其次为豆科24种，忍冬科、榆科、杨柳科均在10种以上。1、油松Pinustabulaeformis松科。木材可供建筑、电杆、矿柱、造船、家具及木纤维工业原料等用材；树干可提取松节油；树皮可提取栲胶     

Economic growth,international trade,and the depletion or conservation of renewable natural resources

Conservation of renewable natural resources and promotion of economic growth are both sustainable development goals. Here, we study the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources—under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights—in an endogenous growth model. We find that if the resource is depleted over time, consumption growth is reduced. Economic growth and international trade only impact resource use when the resource is harvested under full property rights. Then, widening international trade can lead countries to shift from conservation to depletion. Changes in the institutional setting of resource use in one country may have repercussions on trading partners. Our results indicate potential trade-offs between the sustainable development goals and imply that policies focusing on resource use or trade (e.g., international trade bans or certified trade) are not sufficient to prevent resource depletion.     

Drivers of social equity in renewable energy at the municipal level: the case of local Japanese energy policy and preferences

ABSTRACT

Recent research has allowed us to quantify the costs and benefits of adopting renewable energy in specific municipalities, but how do these outcomes vary among communities at the national scale? This study uses survey responses from 47 Japanese municipalities to model these impacts and identifies key technological, social, and demographic factors that shape which communities benefit more from the renewable energy transition. On average, introducing renewable energy improves social equity, any financial burden on electricity prices is born most by wealthier residents, not the poor, and towns are predisposed to benefit from renewables no matter the amount introduced. To improve these impacts, towns can increase the amount of solar they host, or they can adjust the amount of CO2 emissions, PM emissions, tax revenue, jobs gained, or unpopular renewable power plants in their town. However, preferences and demographics matter as well. Age, education, and local preferences in favor of employment and community development all significantly relate to equity potential outcomes. Policymakers should consider adjusting their local energy priorities using these levers if they hope to engineer a renewable energy transition that is both positive and popular for their constituents.     

论人口-资源-环境-灾害恶性循环的严重性与减灾工作的新阶段

人口、资源、环境、灾害.这是当今世界考虑人类的生存与发展的四大基本问题,目前均已发出“黄牌警告”.抑制社会与自然向恶性循环方向发展,需唤起全人类的觉醒和国家领导更高的责任感:保护环境和防御大灾.需组织国际交流与协作:协词社会的发展与生存.需促使环保减灾工作纳入发展规划;提高环保减灾的效能.需推动其内部机制走向综合化和社会化,这是90年代国际和国内共同奋斗的目标. 我国是四大基本问题最为严重的少数国家之一,本文列述了有关的一些重要资料,以求在严酷的四大“黄牌”的总况面前.激起社会更广泛的觉醒和行动.最后,简述了对减灾工作的一些设想.     

资源物质变换与可持续发展

本文根据资源的“绝对”不可再生、相对不可再生、相对可再生和“绝对可再生”的各自特性，论述了资源物质变换在可持续发展中的重要地位。     

废旧物资回收与固体废物资源化技术

综述了国内外固体废物资源化技术的若干进展,如热分解技术、焚烧回收、残渣利用等,并提出发展我国固体废物资源化技术的对策和建议。     

Miscanthus × Giganteus straw and pellets as sustainable fuels and raw material for activated carbon

Miscanthus × Giganteus is an excellent candidate for energy cultivation. Here we report, for the first time, the results of the pyrolysis of Miscanthus × Giganteus straw or pellets both in tubular reactor (3–6 g) and in rotary kiln (10–30 g). At 400–600°C the fractions obtained from both reactors are: solid 16–25 (wt.%); liquids 25–40; water 15–20 and gases 15–50. GC-MS analyses of pyrolysis liquids reveal the occurrence of phenolic derivatives and ethanol from lignin, furanic and linear oxygenated compounds from cellulose and hemicellulose. Finally the chars produced by the pyrolysis of M×G pellets in rotary kiln present good calorific values close to 29,000 J/g. Additionally, activated carbons with a BET surface area as high as 800–900 m²/g are produced from pellets. These results indicate that chars have a good potential either for energy production, e.g. briquetting, or as adsorbents precursors.     

Renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy: balanced growth and transitional dynamics

We introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy, deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium. The model generates a long-run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere. The key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector. This naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth. We examine both the dynamic and long-run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters.     

Phosphorus resources,their depletion and conservation,a review

Yearly, about 22 × 10¹² g phosphorus (P) from mined fossil phosphate resources are added to the world economy. The size of remaining fossil phosphate resources is uncertain but practically finite. Thus, fossil P resources may become depleted by ongoing mining. Despite calls for resource conservation, fossil P resources have been depleted at an increasing rate. Geographically, fossil P supply and demand are distributed in an increasingly uneven way, which has geopolitical consequences and may well affect security of supply. Current use of P gives rise to negative environmental impacts due to P losses from the economy and contaminants derived from fossil P resources. There may also be negative impacts on human health. Reducing the demand for fossil phosphorus may reduce environmental burdens and may improve the future security of supply. Technically speaking, there is much scope for the reduction of current demand for fossil P resources. Limiting consumption of P to essential uses, increased efficiency of agricultural use and increased recycling of P may substantially contribute to the reduction of demand for fossil P resources. Recycling of P has to face concerns regarding the efficiency of P recovery, pathogenic organisms and contaminating substances. Much work remains to be done to effectively address those concerns.