我国城市轨道交通规划环境影响评价指标体系初探

概述了我国城市轨道交通规划与建设及其规划环评工作现状。在对10个城市轨道交通规划环评指标体系分析的基础上,总结了评价指标体系在结构层次和内容方面存在的问题,并提出了解决问题的关键点。建立了基于交通环境承载力的城市轨道交通规划环评指标体系,并展望了其在城市轨道交通规划环评中的应用前景。     

Quantitative risk assessment of the Italian gas distribution network

European Critical Infrastructures include physical resources, services, information technology facilities, networks and infrastructure assets, which, if disrupted or destroyed would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of the Member States.The gas distribution network is a critical infrastructure and its failure can cause damage to structures and injury to people.The aim of this paper is to analyze and then assess the risk of the Italian high pressure natural gas distribution network.The paper describes an application of a methodology for quantitative risk assessment.Failure frequencies considered in risk calculation were found in the European Gas pipeline Incident data Group (EGIG) database, whereas consequences were computed as a function of pipe diameter and operating pressure for each section of the network. The results of this quantitative risk assessment is the determination of local and social risks for the Italian North East Area.     

城市自然生态空间的价值评估及规划启示

城市自然生态空间是城市生态文明建设重要的物质基础。在规划过程中,应该将城市自然生态空间的生态价值评估作为城市规划的重要理论基础,通过相应的规划方法引导城市生态化建设和品质提升。文章通过对城市自然生态空间的界定,以及对城市自然生态空间生态价值评估的理论模型的研究,提出对规划建设的启示：积极构建城市自然生态空间统一的评估指标体系和建立适应中国本土的动态评估模型能够理性的指导城市的生态化建设,同时通过对城市自然生态空间的价值评估能够科学制定城市生态调控政策和正确引导公共参与城市生态化建设。     

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.     

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park,Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.     

Integrating disaster risk reduction in national development planning: experience and challenges of Jamaica

It is generally recognised by the disaster risk management and development communities that disasters have a negative impact on development, and indeed can set back development by years. This realisation led to a new paradigm for the management of hazards and their impacts, namely an integrated approach which emphasises disaster risk reduction being incorporated into national development planning. Awareness, however, does not necessarily translate into implementation. ‘Reduce the underlying risk factors’, Priority for Action 4 of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, reported the lowest average score for progress of the five priority areas. Challenges to progress, as reported by Governments included inappropriate development practices, high levels of poverty and other factors which increase vulnerability. Various authors have recognised the difficulty of consistently and successfully integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning. This integration is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) which face high exposure to hazards, vulnerable populations and limited resources, often both human and financial. The efforts of Jamaica, a Caribbean SIDS, at integrating disaster risk reduction into national development, and some factors which proved to be important in making progress are presented here. This retrospective paper is written from the perspective of a participant observer and traces developments in disaster risk management over three decades, 1980–2010. Integration and inclusiveness, use of quantitative methods and application of risk assessments are identified as being important in gaining acceptance for disaster risk reduction.     

国土空间规划体系下的全域环境空间管控研究——以苏州市为例

立足新时期国土空间规划体系强化全域环境空间管控,推动各类环境要素管控分区降尺度与融合化,实现环境污染源头管控与精准落地,是系统应对当前高强度、复合型环境问题的有效途径.构建基于国土空间规划的全覆盖、多层级环境功能分区管控体系,在单要素人为污染物排放量和综合排放强度评价基础上,提出环境功能分区的管控等级集成评价模型,探索分区管理和分级施策的全域环境空间管控途径,并以高度工业化和城市化的苏州市为案例开展应用研究.结果表明：①基于国土空间规划体系的"三区三线"与现行环境要素管控分区的空间耦合性,建立由8个一级分区和21个二级分区构成的环境功能分区管控体系;②按照"三区三线"管控属性和综合排放强度,可进一步将环境功能分区的管控等级由高至低划分为Ⅴ、Ⅳ、Ⅲ、Ⅱ、Ⅰ及○级;③苏州市人为污染物排放量总体偏大,城镇空间内的工矿业生产空间及城乡居住空间、农业空间内的生产养殖空间的综合排放强度较高,主要分布于姑苏、虎丘等中心城区及昆山、常熟等工业集聚区;④苏州市Ⅴ级和Ⅳ级管控区以工矿业生产空间、城乡居住空间和特殊生产空间为主,Ⅲ级管控区以混合空间为主,Ⅱ级以农业种植空间和生产养殖空间为主,Ⅰ级和○级管控区主要包括一般生态空间和生态保护红线.案例应用表明,国土空间规划体系下的全域环境空间管控可操作性强,可实现环境规制精准落实到污染源空间;建议以环境功能分区分级管控体系为基础,将环境空间管控全面融入国土空间规划体系,建立综合施策的环境协同管理机制.     

基于GIS的危险化学气体泄漏事故应急响应研究

为了研究危险化学气体泄漏事故扩散过程以及受灾人员疏散规划问题。提出以GIS为“连接器”,将危险化学气体的泄漏和扩散过程模拟、气体扩散风险分析和最优疏散方案生成3个过程进行集成,实现泄漏事故的综合应急响应。研究结果显示:方法能针对各类泄漏事故模拟气体的动态扩散过程,并生成受灾人员疏散规划方案,有助于应急处置机构及时决策,进而减少生命财产的损失。     

Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

Identifying Conservation Areas on the Basis of Alternative Distribution Data Sets

Abstract:  Distribution data on biodiversity features is a major component of conservation planning that are often inaccurate; thus, the true distribution of each feature is commonly over- or underrepresented. The selection of distribution data sets may therefore lead to variability in the spatial configuration and size of proposed reserve networks and uncertainty regarding the extent to which these networks actually contain the biodiversity features they were identified to protect. Our goals were to investigate the impact on reserve selection of choosing different distribution data sets and to propose novel methods to minimize uncertainty about target attainment within reserves. To do so, we used common prioritization methods (richness mapping, systematic reserve design, and a novel approach that integrates multiple types of distribution data) and three types of data on the distribution of mammals (predicted distribution models, occurrence records, and a novel combination of the two) to simulate the establishment of regional biodiversity reserves for the state of Arizona (U.S.A.). Using the results of these simulations, we explored variability in reserve placement and size as a function of the distribution data set. Spatial overlap of reserve networks identified with only predicted distribution data or only occurrence distribution data never exceeded 16%. In pairwise comparisons between reserves created with all three types of distribution data, overlap never achieved 50%. The reserve size required to meet conservation targets also varied with the type of distribution data used and the conservation goal; the largest reserve system was 10 times the smallest. Our results highlight the impact of employing different types of distribution data and identify novel tools for application to existing distribution data sets that can minimize uncertainty about target attainment.