Defining the Impact of Non‐Native Species

Non‐native species cause changes in the ecosystems to which they are introduced. These changes, or some of them, are usually termed impacts; they can be manifold and potentially damaging to ecosystems and biodiversity. However, the impacts of most non‐native species are poorly understood, and a synthesis of available information is being hindered because authors often do not clearly define impact. We argue that explicitly defining the impact of non‐native species will promote progress toward a better understanding of the implications of changes to biodiversity and ecosystems caused by non‐native species; help disentangle which aspects of scientific debates about non‐native species are due to disparate definitions and which represent true scientific discord; and improve communication between scientists from different research disciplines and between scientists, managers, and policy makers. For these reasons and based on examples from the literature, we devised seven key questions that fall into 4 categories: directionality, classification and measurement, ecological or socio‐economic changes, and scale. These questions should help in formulating clear and practical definitions of impact to suit specific scientific, stakeholder, or legislative contexts. Definiendo el Impacto de las Especies No‐Nativas     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

驾驶员风险认知能力对交通安全的影响

为辨别不同驾驶员风险认知能力对驾驶安全的影响。通过设置13种存在潜在风险的交通情景,引入惩罚用时机制,利用驾驶模拟器,对熟练驾驶员和非熟练驾驶员在风险认知培训前后的风险认知能力进行比较,找出不同驾驶员对风险认知的差异。试验结果显示,熟练驾驶员的风险认知能力比非熟练驾驶员要高,两者在引起交通风险的因素上是不同的,培训后的风险认知能力较之前有很大提高。培训能够拓宽驾驶员对潜在风险的认知程度,更好地将驾驶员的操作技能、知识体系和外在行为衔接在一起,从而减少交通事故的发生。     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

油库项目环境风险评价案例分析

根据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》,对油库项目环评中的环境风险因子进行识别,并分析其风险源项。采用导则推荐的多烟团模式计算原油储罐泄漏引发池火事故后,对周围环境影响的范围和程度。因此对油库项目进行环境风险评价时,应重视油库泄漏事故对环境的影响。     

漓江沉积柱重金属垂向分布特征及污染评价

对桂林漓江3个采样点沉积柱状沉积物中主要重金属元素(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Ni)的垂向分布进行了测定。结果表明:7种重金属元素具有相似的垂向变化特征;横向上表现为靠近市区的含量高远离,市区的含量低。地积累指数评价结果显示,远离市区的沉积柱7种金属污染程度较轻,仅有Cd和Ni属于无～中污染程度。临近市区的沉积柱形成污染的元素为Cd、Cu、Zn、Pb和As,主要集中在底层和次表层。     

大学生减灾教育对策研究

灾害风险认知能力是进行减灾教育的基础,受众获取灾害知识与信息的方式是影响减灾教育方法的重要因素,而受众获取灾害知识与信息的途径则会直接影响灾害内容的传递效率和效果。本文针对以上所关心的问题,为了建立合理有效的大学生减灾教育计划,应对大学生防灾减灾意识和能力不足的现状,通过问卷调查,分析和研究了来自不同生源地大学生的灾害风险认知水平、获取灾害知识和信息的方式与途径。从自然灾害风险认知的视角,通过寻找不同特性大学生群体获取减灾知识与信息的差异和趋同性,提出了现势条件下针对大学生的减灾教育对策。     

Traffic behaviour among adolescents using mopeds and light motorcycles

INTRODUCTION: Motorcycling is recognized to be a relatively risky activity. Powered two wheelers (PTW) are classified as mopeds, light, and heavy motorcycles, the first two categories being denoted light PTWs. This paper reviews the scientific literature on accident risks and traffic behavior among users of light PTWs with the aim of clarifying the current state of knowledge. METHOD: Based on a risk analytical and an anthropological perspective on motorcycling, the paper discusses the significance of cultural and social factors as important aspects of safety. More targeted and effective safety measures, for example better training programs, are needed to prevent motorcycle accidents. This means developing a deeper understanding of the rider as an individual, and the individuals within different groups and settings. Why and how motorcyclists approach the road, its function as a social arena, the varieties of goals and values, and the motorcyclists' own perceptions of the behavior that ensures their "achievements" or "successes", are some of the issues. Today, this kind of knowledge is scarce and almost entirely absent from the scientific literature. RESULTS: We conclude that the massive quantities of data on numbers of accidents, the categorization of situations, the causal explanations related to speed, gender, age, lack of concentration so forth, can only be employed as support for safety measures as long as they are linked to social and cultural factors. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Risk informed decision making has become an integral part of authorities' and manufacturers' implementation of safety measures. This tendency is strengthened by the fact that the responsibility of product safety rests upon the manufacturers, cf. for example EU safety regulations. Therefore it is paramount that a thorough understanding of social and cultural factors related to the PTW driving is necessary for the industry to develop targeted and efficient safety measures.     

饮用水源地的水华对人体健康风险评价

饮用水源地的水华现象近年来在世界各地不断爆发,给人类饮水安全造成极大的威胁。本文通过检测微囊藻毒素和三卤甲烷类物质,利用急性暴露安全阈值（浓度）计算模型,计算出了各自的急性暴露安全阅值,并对健康风险进行了评价。     

Effects of three pesticides on the avoidance behavior of earthworms in laboratory tests performed under temperate and tropical conditions

Little research has been performed on the impact of pesticides on earthworms under tropical conditions. Taking into consideration the often-limited resources in tropical countries, simple screening tests are needed. Therefore, it was investigated whether three pesticides relevant for the Brazilian Amazon (benomyl, carbendazim, lambda-cyhalothrin) affect the avoidance behavior of the earthworm Eisenia fetida. The tests were performed for two days according to ISO guideline 17512 but were adapted to tropical conditions (i.e. test substrate, test organism and temperature). The results indicate that this test gives reproducible and reliable results. Toxicity values (NOEC, EC50) are lower than those determined in 14 day-acute mortality tests and are approximately in the same range such as those found in 56 day-chronic reproduction tests with the same earthworm species, which were performed in parallel. Therefore, the use of the earthworm avoidance tests is recommended as a screening tool for the risk assessment of pesticides.