“一带一路”地区百余年地震时空演变特征

本研究基于“一带一路”地区1900-2018年间≥5级地震事件空间数据,采用小波周期与热区识别方法,分析了该地区地震灾害的空间分布格局与时间周期性特征,并识别了地震灾害空间热区及其演变特征。研究表明:(1)1900-2018年,“一带一路”地区地震发生频次表现出波动性上升的“三段式”分布,主要发生在亚欧大陆-喜马拉雅山周围的亚欧板块与印度洋板块的交界处以及俄罗斯东部沿海、印度尼西亚东南部的环太平洋地区;(2)地震频发地区和震级较强地区均具有多时间尺度的周期变化特征,及一定的空间聚集性,并逐渐演变成高发热区和高强热区;(3)中国和印度尼西亚发生频率远高于其他国家,而缅甸、孟加拉、马尔代夫等国发生频次较低,但其震级强度相对较大。研究结果提示我们未来针对“一带一路”地区基础设施的投资应适当规避地震频发地区及未来潜在的高强热区,同时加强国际间减灾防灾合作,从而更好的降低或预防“一带一路”地区基础设施建设的地震灾害风险。     

特大城市公路交通设施噪声影响水平分析

中国特大城市的公路交通设施规模庞大而复杂,主要包括公路、城市道路、公路运输枢纽场站。本文实测了北京市有代表性公路交通设施场界噪声,分析了其不同道路等级(或不同客货公路运输枢纽)、不同车流量、不同时段情况下的噪声影响程度大小,为北京市公路交通设施的规划研究提供参考。     

道路环境成本的货币化模型研究

公平、合理地分担外部性环境成本是实现道路交通资源最优配置的前提条件之一,而环境成本货币化评估是实现道路交通政策体现环境公平性的重要内容。介绍了在国内外对道路外部成本的研究成果,在已有研究的基础上,将我国道路交通发展的环境成本主要分解为生态影响、环境污染和温室气体排放三类,并以借助环境经济学理论基础,对给出的道路交通生态影响、环境污染和温室气体排放的货币化方法估算模型分别进行了探讨。随后,以安徽省某高速公路为例,计算出道路建设及运营的环境成本占工程总投资的7.31%,结果表明环境成本货币化有利于明确道路建设的环境影响,并纳入成本核算中。     

Evaluating the short-term effect of ambient temperature on non-fatal outdoor falls and road traffic injuries among children and adolescents in China: a time-stratified case-crossover study

● A study assessing the temperature-injury relationship was conducted among students. ● The maximum risks of injury appeared at moderate temperatures. ● The temperature effect on outdoor falls was greater in older students. Although studies have suggested that non-optimal temperatures may increase the risk of injury, epidemiological studies focusing on the association between temperature and non-fatal injury among children and adolescents are limited. Therefore, we investigated the short-term effect of ambient temperature on non-fatal falls and road traffic injuries (RTIs) among students across Jiangsu Province, China. Meteorological data and records of non-fatal outdoor injuries due to falls and RTIs among students aged 6–17 were collected during 2018–2020. We performed a time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the effect of ambient temperature on the risk of injury. Individual meteorological exposure was estimated based on the address of the selected school. We also performed stratified analyses by sex, age, and area. A total of 57322 and 5455 cases of falls and RTIs were collected, respectively. We observed inverted U-shaped curves for temperature-injury associations, with maximum risk temperatures at 18 °C (48th of daily mean temperature distribution) for falls and 22 °C (67th of daily mean temperature distribution) for RTIs. The corresponding odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 2.193 (2.011, 2.391) and 3.038 (1.988, 4.644) for falls and RTIs, respectively. Notably, there was a significant age-dependent trend in which the temperature effect on falls was greater in older students (P-trend < 0.05). This study suggests a significant association between ambient temperature and students’ outdoor falls and RTIs. Our findings may help advance tailored strategies to reduce the incidence of outdoor falls and RTIs in children and adolescents.     

Required hours of practice for learner drivers: A comparison between two Australian jurisdictions

Problem

This study considers whether requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours while on a learner license affects the amount of hours of supervised practice that they undertake. It compares the amount of practice that learners in Queensland and New South Wales report undertaking. At the time the study was conducted, learner drivers in New South Wales were required to complete 50 hours of supervised practice while those from Queensland were not.

Method

Participants were approached outside driver licensing centers after they had just completed their practical driving test to obtain their provisional (intermediate) license. Those agreeing to participate were interviewed over the phone later and asked a range of questions to obtain information including socio-demographic details and amount of supervised practice completed.

Results

There was a significant difference in the amount of practice that learners reported undertaking. Participants from New South Wales reported completing a significantly greater amount of practice (M = 73.3 hours, sd = 29.12 hours) on their learner license than those from Queensland (M = 64.1 hours, sd = 51.05 hours). However, the distribution of hours of practice among the Queensland participants was bimodal in nature. Participants from Queensland reported either completing much less or much more practice than the New South Wales average.

Summary

While it appears that the requirement that learner drivers complete a set number of hours may increase the average amount of hours of practice obtained, it may also serve to discourage drivers from obtaining additional practice, over and above the required hours.

Impact on Industry

The results of this study suggest that the implications of requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours of supervised practice are complex. In some cases, policy makers may inadvertently limit the amount of hours learners obtain to the mandated amount rather than encouraging them to obtain as much practice as possible.     

Digital screen use for a road safety campaign message was not associated with road safety awareness of passers-by: A quasi-experimental study

Introduction: Recent evidence suggests fatality risks for cyclists may be increasing in Britain. Understanding how to increase levels of cycling while keeping risk low is paramount. Educating drivers about cyclists may help with road safety, and mass-media messaging is a possible avenue, potentially utilizing digital displays screens in public areas. However, no studies have examined the use of these screens for road safety campaigns. Methods: A quasi-experiment was conducted to examine if digital screens may be effective to raise awareness of a campaign message and encourage recall of car drivers. A digital campaign image was selected that encouraged car drivers and cyclists to ‘look out for each other,’ and stated than 80% of cyclists owned a driving license. Views and knowledge on driver priorities around cyclists were examined before (control) and after campaign exposure (intervention), and tested using regression modelling. Results: 364 people were interviewed over five days. Those interviewed on intervention days were more likely to rank ‘Look out for cyclists’ as being more important compared to those interviewed on control days (OR 1.20), but this was not statistically significant (p = 0.355). Those who said they had seen the image did not rank ‘Look out for cyclists’ higher than those who said they had not seen it (p = 0.778). The disparity between reported and displayed percentage of cyclists with a driving license did not differ between intervention and control days, but was 8% higher amongst those who claimed to have seen the image (p = 0.026). Conclusions: We did not find strong evidence that use of an image on digital screens increased public awareness or recall of a casualty reduction campaign message. Work is needed to investigate the effects of longer-term exposure to road safety images. Practical Applications: Short-term use of digital signage is not recommended for raising awareness of road safety campaigns.     

Urban road space allocation incorporating the safety and construction cost impacts of lane and footpath widths

Introduction: Walkability continues to attract great attention from urban planners, designers, and engineers as they recognize not only the merits of pedestrian facilities in terms of the health benefits but also their demerits in terms of accident risk to pedestrians. Wide footpaths improve the pedestrian environment and experience, and thereby motivate travelers to walk as much as possible. However, if footpaths are too wide, they may leave a smaller space for the roadway. On the other hand, wide road lanes may lead to higher road vehicle safety but are costly to construct and maintain and also may leave little space for the footpath. Evidently, for a fixed urban space, what is needed is an optimal balance between the vehicle lane and pedestrian path. This problem is encountered routinely in dense cities including Hong Kong where land availability is severely limited. Method: To address the issue, this paper first establishes safety performance functions (SPFs) for the pedestrian space and the road space, using the random-parameter negative binomial regression. The results indicate the extent to which road lane and footpath width changes are associated with changes in in-vehicle occupant and pedestrian casualties. Then the paper uses the SPFs to develop a methodology for optimizing the width allocations to the road lanes and footpaths, duly considering the user (safety) costs and agency (construction) costs associated with each candidate allocation of the widths. Finally, the paper analyzes the sensitivity of the optimal solution to the relative weights of user cost and agency cost. Results: When user and agency costs are considered equally important, the optimal lane width is 5.4 m. Conclusion: It is observed that the road space allocation ratio used by the Hong Kong road agency suggests that the agency places a higher weight to user cost compared to agency cost. Practical Application: The findings can help incorporate design-safety relationships, and the stakeholders (agency and users) perspectives in urban road and footpath design.     

Impact of medical fitness to drive policies in preventing property damage,injury, and death from motor vehicle collisions in Ontario,Canada

Introduction: Drivers with medical conditions and functional impairments are at increased collision risk. A challenge lies in identifying the point at which such risk becomes unacceptable to society and requires mitigating measures. This study models the road safety impact of medical fitness-to-drive policy in Ontario. Method: Using data from 2005 to 2014, we estimated the losses to road safety incurred during the time medically-at-risk drivers were under review, as well as the savings to road safety accrued as a result of licensing decisions made after the review process. Results: While under review, drivers with medical conditions had an age- and sex-standardized collision rate no different from the general driver population, suggesting no road safety losses occurred (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93–1.12). Licensing decisions were estimated to have subsequently prevented 1,211 (95% CI: 780–1,730) collisions, indicating net road safety savings resulting from medical fitness to drive policies. However, more collisions occurred than were prevented for drivers with musculoskeletal disorders, sleep apnea, and diabetes. We theorize on these findings and discuss its multiple implications. Conclusions: Minimizing the impact of medical conditions on collision occurrence requires robust policies that balance fairness and safety. It is dependent on efforts by academic researchers (who study fitness to drive); policymakers (who set driver medical standards); licensing authorities (who make licensing decisions under such standards); and clinicians (who counsel patients on their driving risk and liaise with licensing authorities). Practical Applications: Further efforts are needed to improve understanding of the effects of medical conditions on collision risk, especially for the identified conditions and combinations of conditions. Results reinforce the value of optimizing the processes by which information is solicited from physicians in order to better assess the functional impact of drivers’ medical conditions on driving and to take suitable licensing action.     

“一带一路”战略背景下金属产业国际产能合作研究

随着全球经济发展放缓,金属资源国内需求结构变化,资源约束压力、产能过剩等问题更加突出。如何通过国际产能合作化解金属产业难题是亟待解决的一个现实问题。本文从中国金属产业的现状出发,借鉴美、日产能转移的成功经验,在"一带一路"战略的大背景下探索适合中国金属产业开展产能合作的新模式并提出相应的政策建议。研究认为,中国已成为世界金属生产和消费大国且工业化进入中后期,具有进行国际产能合作的现实需求,"一带一路"战略为中国金属产能国际转移带来了历史契机。这种契机主要表现在沿线国家的基础设施建设热潮带来全球金属资源消费新的增长点,中国主导的"一带一路"战略构建了一种新型地缘政治格局,既能增强中国在沿线国家中的贸易话语权,也为中国开展国际产能合作提供了条件。研究指出,在"一带一路"战略下,中国金属产业的产能转移应以"互利共赢"为基础创新产能合作模式:即以产能合作推动产能转移,达到产业互补经济互惠的目的;以产能输出取代产品输出,有效回避西方国家针对中国的"双反"政策;以基础设施援建消化部分产能,在帮助沿线国家发展基础设施建设的同时消化自身部分富余产能。在合作策略上,应注重六个方面:一是充分利用"一带一路"的战略合作关系;二是实施低端转移高端做强的策略方针;三是全方位开放和深化产能合作;四是开展境外产业园区建设和有色金属精深加工工程;五是大力鼓励民营资本参与;六是创新金属矿业投资模式。     

机动车尾气对南京市道路环境空气质量的影响

调查 了南京市机动车尾气对道路环境污染的状况,分析了城市道路建设对空气质量的影响。指出,从1991年以来,南京市机动车总量和道路车流量持续快速增长,但由于城市道路条件的改善,道路通行能力有了较大的提高,道路两侧污染物NOx,CO浓度均有所下降,但仍分别高于对照点2.2倍、3.2倍,道路汽车排气对城市环境空气质量的影响不容忽视。提出,随着道路车流量的不断增加,要改善城市环境空气质量,必须推广清洁燃料以及低污染车和零污染车,同时进一步加强道路建设,提高车辆通行能力,增加植树绿化。