An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

A Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (CED), life cycle based,for industrial waste management decision making

Life cycle thinking is a good approach to be used for environmental decision-support, although the complexity of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies sometimes prevents their wide use. The purpose of this paper is to show how LCA methodology can be simplified to be more useful for certain applications.In order to improve waste management in Catalonia (Spain), a Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (LCA-based) has been used to obtain four mathematical models to help the government in the decision of preventing or allowing a specific waste from going out of the borders. The conceptual equations and all the subsequent developments and assumptions made to obtain the simplified models are presented.One of the four models is discussed in detail, presenting the final simplified equation to be subsequently used by the government in decision making.The resulting model has been found to be scientifically robust, simple to implement and, above all, fulfilling its purpose: the limitation of waste transport out of Catalonia unless the waste recovery operations are significantly better and justify this transport.     

武宁县森林扰动及驱动因子分析

森林扰动是影响陆地生态系统的重要因子,也是影响全球碳循环的重要因素.以江西省武宁县为例,利用1986-2011年14景Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像,通过扰动指数(disturbance index,DI)时间序列轨迹分析提取森林扰动信息,并引入经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分解方法定量分析了森林扰动的时空变化规律,利用GIS深入分析了自然和社会驱动因子影响.结果表明,武宁县森林扰动在1986-1998年较强,扰动面积以1992年为最大,以地区性扰动为主;2000年以后则趋于平缓,扰动以砍伐和森林火灾为主;在空间上,扰动主要发生在近道路、低海拔、低坡度和近水地区,并受地形和交通的制约,城镇化逐渐成为该地区森林扰动的一个不可忽略的驱动因子.     

南水北调中线水源地不同植被类型坡地土壤水分特征研究

为了解不同植被类型土壤水资源的变化规律，选择南水北调中线水源区宁陕县寨沟区域典型植被针阔混交林、针叶林、板栗林、灌木林、荒坡草地和坡耕地为研究对象，通过样地调查与实验分析的方法对其土壤水分物理特征及有机质含量进行测定研究。结果表明，各种有林地的土壤容重、孔隙度和有机质等理化特征均优于荒坡和坡耕地；针阔混交林土壤含水量最高，蓄水能力明显好于其它植被类型；在垂直剖面上，各种植被类型坡地土壤含水量和饱和蓄水量随土壤深度的增加基本呈递减趋势，但有林地下降幅度较大，表层含水量明显高于荒坡与坡耕地表层。由此可见，在涵养水源方面，针阔混交林最好，针叶林、板栗林与灌木林次之，荒坡与坡耕地较差。     

三峡库区典型退耕还林模式土壤养分流失控制

选择三峡库区典型退耕还林模式,包括园地(茶园)及林地(板栗)与原有坡耕地对照,观测并分析其土壤养分(氮磷)输出途径及数量情况,以评估实施退耕还林工程对流域土壤养分输出的影响.结果表明:1退耕后土壤养分氮磷年流失量(包括随泥沙和地表径流流失的量)减少;总氮(TN)年输出量从大到小依次为坡耕地(2 444.27 g·hm-2)茶园地(998.70g·hm-2)板栗林地(532.61 g·hm-2);总磷(TP)为坡耕地(1 690.48 g·hm-2)茶园地(488.06 g·hm-2)板栗林地(129.00 g·hm-2);与坡耕地比较,退耕还林模式(园地、林地)总氮、总磷年输出载荷分别减少了68.68%和81.75%.2茶园地、板栗林地与坡耕地相比,土壤养分速效态氮流失量明显减少,硝态氮(NO-3-N)输出总量依次为坡耕地(113.79g·hm-2)茶园地(73.75 g·hm-2)板栗林地(56.06 g·hm-2);铵态氮(NH+4-N)养分输出次序为茶园最大(69.34 g·hm-2),坡耕地次之(52.45 g·hm-2),板栗林地最小(47.23 g·hm-2).3硝态氮、铵态氮主要通过地表径流输出,所占总量比例分别为91.4%和92.2%;总氮和总磷主要通过泥沙输出,所占总量比例分别为86.6%和98.4%.通过退耕还林等措施,该地区地表径流以及土壤侵蚀输出明显减少,土壤养分流失得到有效控制.     

基于好氧甲烷氧化菌的反硝化效能及微生物群落研究

采用气体循环序批式生物膜反应器（gcSBBR）,构建反硝化型甲烷好氧氧化（AME-D）系统.考察了进水氮负荷的影响,发现氮负荷为0.075kg/（m³·d）时,硝酸盐氮去除率达到98.93%,其反硝化速率为74.25mg/（L·d）,系统的甲烷日平均消耗量为35.91%（初期为50%）;扫描电子显微镜（SEM）分析结果显示,系统中的微生物主要以短杆菌（12~18 μm）为主,并存在少量的丝状菌（长150~200μm）;16S rRNA高通量测序结果显示,该系统中的甲烷氧化菌为Methylocaldum、Methylomonas、Methylococcus和Methylococcaceae_unclassified,反硝化菌为Denitratisoma、Hydrogenophaga、Azoarcus、Thiobacillus和Rhodobacter,其中主要的功能微生物为Methylocaldum、Denitratisoma和Hydrogenophaga,系统对氮的去除是由好氧甲烷氧化菌与反硝化菌协同实现.此外,系统中存在大量以甲醇和甲基胺类物质为生长基质的Methylophilaceae_uncultured（30.4%）.     

物理和摇蚊幼虫组合扰动对内源磷再生和形态转化的协同作用

为探讨物理和摇蚊幼虫组合扰动对内源磷再生和形态转化的协同作用,选取了苏州某富营养化河道为研究对象.利用室内静态培养试验和Rhizon间隙水采样技术,着重对比了单纯的摇蚊幼虫扰动和组合扰动下,上覆水、间隙水、沉积物中磷形态数量分布的变化规律.结果表明,组合扰动下,上覆水中不同形态磷含量(TP、PP、DTP、DIP)均处于较高水平,明显高于摇蚊幼虫扰动.这可归因于微生物活性的显著增加.与摇蚊幼虫扰动相比,组合扰动下,间隙水中DIP和Fe2+浓度的降低幅度和降低范围明显更大.这主要是由于物理扰动和底栖生物扰动产生的叠加效应,导致溶解氧渗透深度增加.另外,0~2 cm沉积物中,NH4Cl-P含量明显降低,Fe/Al-P明显增加,并且,NH4Cl-P和Fe/Al-P的变化幅度均在组合扰动下最大.这暗示了物理扰动和底栖生物扰动对磷再生和迁移产生的叠加效应.     

我国公众环境保护意识的调查与分析

本文根据一次大规模的抽样调查资料，初步分析了我国公众环境保护意识的现状，认为从总体上看，公众的环保意识水平偏低；公众的环境资源况颇具特色；在经济发展与环境保护之间出现明显矛盾时，半数公众能够优先考虑环境保护；大多数公众认为环境保护与个人有关，但对个人的努力信心不足；超过七成的公众表示愿意为环境保护支付一定费用，但对高收入阶层普遍寄予较高的期望；公众有一定的依法保护环境的心理基础，但法律知识又非常缺乏。     

大气扰动下人－机系统建模与仿真

建立了人、机、大气环境扰动的动力学模型。形成一个便于仿真计算的人－机－环境系统模型，针对驾驶员完成俯仰跟踪任务，研究了大气扰动对驾驶员控制特性和人－机闭环特性的影响。