川藏公路G317线路基水毁危险度分段研究

G317线是我国西藏地区最主要的干线公路之一，是内地与西藏地区经贸流通的重要通道。但是西藏地区环境恶劣，公路路基水毁灾害非常频繁，常常影响公路通行。本文从G317线公路路基水毁的实地调查资料出发，综合分析影响路基水毁发育的因素，对其水毁危险性进行分段研究。经过研究将G317线分为极度危险段、高度危险段、中度危险段、低度危险段、微度危险段和暂无危险段6个路基水毁危险度级别，并对每个危险度级别进行评述.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to clarify public preferences for flood control measures in Japan, willingness to pay (WTP), and the main factors involved in WTP by applying the contingent valuation method. Findings showed that most residents surveyed expected some flood control measures, and revealed a diversity of interest in river management. WTP levels for different measures ranged from a mean of ¥2,887 to ¥4,861 and from a median of ¥1,000 to ¥2,000. However, WTP for additional flood risk reduction beyond initial levels was found to be zero. This was considered to be because WTP for flood risk reduction must be determined within a multi‐risk context. WTP for flood control measures may increase with per capita income, individual preparedness, and/or experience with flooding, but may decrease with distance from a river, acceptability of flood risk, and provision of environmental information. Furthermore, perception of flood risk may increase WTP, while perception of other risks may decrease it. Methods of dealing with environmental risk that were proposed in the survey may have affected WTP levels.     

A research agenda for increasing safety belt use in the United States

On November 13-14, 2003, a symposium on high-visibility safety belt use enforcement in Raleigh, NC: (a) celebrated the 10th anniversary of North Carolina's Click It or Ticket program; (b) documented current knowledge regarding safety belt use; (c) proposed strategies to increase use further; and (d) discussed research to support these strategies.     

Questionable accountability: MSF and Sphere in 2003

This article examines the relationship between Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and the Sphere Project. Prior to revisiting the concerns MSF had with the project, it looks at factors that give rise to differences between NGOs and cites some reasons for why an organisation such as MSF would not embrace such a project and clarifies some key elements of MSF-style humanitarianism. The author revisits the original concerns and arguments presented by MSF when it decided not to participate beyond assisting with the establishment of technical standards and key indicators for the handbook. This is followed by a critical discussion examining these concerns and counter-criticism with reference to experiences a few years after the inception of Sphere. It concludes with MSF's perceptions and stance regarding Sphere and accountability in 2003.     

谈"动态对等"的缺陷

美国著名翻译理论家Nida提出的"动态对等"原则是对翻译理论界的一大贡献.笔者在承认这个原则的同时,从它概念的几个关键词入手,指出这个概念中几个值得商榷的地方,认为它的理论基础不牢靠,并分析了它所忽视的翻译所涉及的几个要素,由此表明,翻译这种涉及到许多因素的复杂活动不能依靠一种理论来指导.     

Nutrient-limited toxin production and the dynamics of two phytoplankton in culture media: A mathematical model

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple mathematical model consisting of four variables, viz., nutrient concentration, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP), non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), and toxin concentration. Limitation in the concentration of the extracellular nutrient has been incorporated as an environmental stress condition for the plankton population, and the liberation of toxic chemicals has been described by a monotonic function of extracellular nutrient. The model is analyzed and simulated to reproduce the experimental findings of Graneli and Johansson [Graneli, E., Johansson, N., 2003. Increase in the production of allelopathic Prymnesium parvum cells grown under N- or P-deficient conditions. Harmful Algae 2, 135–145]. The robustness of the numerical experiments are tested by a formal parameter sensitivity analysis. As the first theoretical model consistent with the experiment of Graneli and Johansson (2003), our results demonstrate that, when nutrient-deficient conditions are favorable for the TPP population to release toxic chemicals, the TPP species control the bloom of other phytoplankton species which are non-toxic. Consistent with the observations made by Graneli and Johansson (2003), our model overcomes the limitation of not incorporating the effect of nutrient-limited toxic production in several other models developed on plankton dynamics.     

Selecting parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An individual-based model of mosquitofish population dynamics

A stochastic individual-based model (IBM) of mosquitofish population dynamics in experimental ponds was constructed in order to increase, virtually, the number of replicates of control populations in an ecotoxicology trial, and thus to increase the statistical power of the experiments. In this context, great importance had to be paid to model calibration as this conditions the use of the model as a reference for statistical comparisons. Accordingly, model calibration required that both mean behaviour and variability behaviour of the model were in accordance with real data. Currently, identifying parameter values from observed data is still an open issue for IBMs, especially when the parameter space is large. Our model included 41 parameters: 30 driving the model expectancy and 11 driving the model variability. Under these conditions, the use of “Latin hypercube” sampling would most probably have “missed” some important combinations of parameter values. Therefore, complete factorial design was preferred. Unfortunately, due to the constraints of the computational capacity, cost-acceptable “complete designs” were limited to no more than nine parameters, the calibration question becoming a parameter selection question. In this study, successive “complete designs” were conducted with different sets of parameters and different parameter values, in order to progressively narrow the parameter space. For each “complete design”, the selection of a maximum of nine parameters and their respective n values was carefully guided by sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis was decisive in selecting parameters that were both influential and likely to have strong interactions. According to this strategy, the model of mosquitofish population dynamics was calibrated on real data from two different years of experiments, and validated on real data from another independent year. This model includes two categories of agents; fish and their living environment. Fish agents have four main processes: growth, survival, puberty and reproduction. The outputs of the model are the length frequency distribution of the population and the 16 scalar variables describing the fish populations. In this study, the length frequency distribution was parameterized by 10 scalars in order to be able to perform calibration. The recently suggested notion of “probabilistic distribution of the distributions” was also applied to our case study, and was shown to be very promising for comparing length frequency distributions (as such).     

A Graph-Theory Framework for Evaluating Landscape Connectivity and Conservation Planning

Abstract:  Connectivity of habitat patches is thought to be important for movement of genes, individuals, populations, and species over multiple temporal and spatial scales. We used graph theory to characterize multiple aspects of landscape connectivity in a habitat network in the North Carolina Piedmont (U.S.A).^. We compared this landscape with simulated networks with known topology, resistance to disturbance, and rate of movement. We introduced graph measures such as compartmentalization and clustering, which can be used to identify locations on the landscape that may be especially resilient to human development or areas that may be most suitable for conservation. Our analyses indicated that for songbirds the Piedmont habitat network was well connected. Furthermore, the habitat network had commonalities with planar networks, which exhibit slow movement, and scale-free networks, which are resistant to random disturbances. These results suggest that connectivity in the habitat network was high enough to prevent the negative consequences of isolation but not so high as to allow rapid spread of disease. Our graph-theory framework provided insight into regional and emergent global network properties in an intuitive and visual way and allowed us to make inferences about rates and paths of species movements and vulnerability to disturbance. This approach can be applied easily to assessing habitat connectivity in any fragmented or patchy landscape.     

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Summary.  Several freshwater invertebrate and vertebrate prey species rely on chemosensory cues, including non-injury released disturbance cues, to assess and avoid local predation threats. The prevailing hypothesis is that a pulse of ammonia released by disturbed or stressed prey functions as the disturbance cue. Here, we test this hypothesis in two phylogenetically distant freshwater prey fishes, convict cichlids and rainbow trout. In our first experiment, we measured NH₄ ⁺ concentration in tanks containing shoals of cichlid or trout before and after exposure to a realistic model predator (or left undisturbed). We failed to find an increase in ambient NH₄ ⁺ concentration for either cichlids or trout. In our second experiment, we exposed cichlids or trout to NH₄ ⁺ at 0.1 or 0.5 mg L⁻¹ (or a distilled water control) and measured the change in antipredator behaviour (time moving, foraging rate and area use). We found no consistent increase in antipredator behaviour in response to NH₄ ⁺. In our third study, we exposed cichlids and trout to the disturbance cues of cichlids or trout (versus the odour of undisturbed donors). We found significant increases in antipredator behaviour, regardless of donor species, for both cichlids and trout. Thus, the results of our first two experiments do not support the hypothesis that ammonium functions as a disturbance cue in prey fishes. However, the results of our final experiment do confirm the use of disturbance cues in convict cichlids and rainbow trout and support that hypothesis that the disturbance cue is indeed some generalized metabolic byproduct.     

Spatial pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries in southern interior British Columbia

Recent ecosystem and fire management research aims to quantify, model and understand historical fire disturbances focusing on their frequency, size and distribution. Less attention, however, has been paid to fire boundaries and their location on the landscape. Our study presents a spatial method to quantify the location, pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries using tree ring fire scar data in the lower Stein watershed (British Columbia). Data from Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii collected in 35 one-hectare plots over a 412-hectare study area were analyzed for the period between 1879 and 1947 using local spatial statistics and boundary detection techniques. Results of the analysis using local spatial statistic Moran’s I showed significant clustering of boundaries near topographic breaks. To determine and test whether fire boundaries between plots were persistent, we used boundary detection methods and developed a spatially restricted randomization test. The results revealed that out of 86 possible boundary links, 8 were significantly persistent (P < 0.025) while another 8 were significantly rare (P < 0.025). These spatial methods can help determine the historical spatial configuration of persistent boundaries and can be used to maintain natural forest dynamics.