The idea of sustainable development

In this lecture, I demonstrate how very different macroeconomic history begins to look if Nature is included as a capital asset in production activities. The tentative conclusions I draw from the evidence are: (1) high population growth in the world’s poorest regions (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) has been an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable economic development there; relatedly, (2) when population growth is taken into account, the accumulation of manufactured capital, knowledge, and human capital (health and education) has not compensated for the degradation of natural capital in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and, in all probability, even in the UK and the US; (3) China is possibly an exception to (1) and (2). This article is based on the Keynote Lecture delivered at the international symposium on “Sustainability in an Unequal World”, held in Tokyo on November 24, 2006. The exposition relies on my book, Economics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007. The author is the Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of St. John’s College, Cambridge.     

Ecophysiological constraints associated with aggression,and evolution toward pacifism in Spalax ehrenbergi

Evolution from a solitary way of life to sociality involves changes in the modalities of within-population aggression. This paper is concerned with environmental causes of variation in aggression within the complex of mole-rat species Spalax ehrenbergi. We focus on physiological constraints associated with aggressive behaviour, i.e. those resulting from emotional arousal and thus stress. Aggression, social stress sensitivity and urine osmolarity were studied in males of two chromosomal species of Spalax ehrenbergi, 2n = 52 (occurring in cool humid areas) and 2n = 60 (occurring in warm arid zones). Males with 2n = 52 reached a higher level of within-population aggression during a 3-round tournament (an average, 488 ± 140 acts) than males with 2n = 60 (163 ± 54 acts). The species with 2n = 52 displayed a higher corticosterone response after a social encounter (in average, 5.15 ± 0.54 μg/100 ml) than that with 2n = 60 (3.0 ± 0.3 μg/100 ml) whereas resting levels of this hormone were low and not different between the two species. Urine osmolarity was significantly higher in males with 2n = 60 (331.9 ± 18.6 mmol/kg) than males with 2n = 52 (267.3 ± 10.9 mmol/kg). Considering the overall general trend urine osmolarity tended to be negatively related to the level of aggression, while corticosterone levels tended to vary positively with aggressiveness (Fig. 3). Our results allow further discussion of the hypothesis that high levels of aggression could be selected against in arid habitats due to their physiological correlates (decrease in water economy, increased corticosterone leading to potential energy mobilisation and loss). We propose that behavioural ecophysiology could have contributed to the radiation of the S. ehrenbergi superspecies into increasingly arid environments, and may favour evolution toward social tolerance. Received: 10 June 1995/Accepted after revision: 25 October 1995     

Proposal of Indicators to Assess Urban Sustainability in Brazil

The research related here focuses on municipal situations where problems of sustainability may be defined and tackled on the basis of bottom-up management procedures with the participation of organized society. The aim is to build management models that may be implemented with reasonable administrative effort and cost. Implementation pursues the target of approaching a sustainable situation in the municipality. Environmental parameters for an ideal municipality with undefined geographical location are presented. For each parameter, a set of indicators is developed that can measure the prospect of sustainability. The indicators are defined in terms of numbers or literal concepts according to the possibility of measurement. Examples of management models are presented, which are able to approach the situation defined as sustainable by the indicators. The basic management tool is the learning curve of targeted communities, which is experimentally developed and applied. The indicators are grouped according to their range of applicability.     

The habitat saturation hypothesis and sociality in an allodapine bee: cooperative nesting is not “making the best of a bad situation”

Several factors thought to be important for the evolution of cooperative breeding in vertebrates have received little attention in facultatively social insects. One of these, the “habitat saturation hypothesis” of Selander (1964), predicts that colony sizes will be greater in breeding units where dispersal opportunities are limited, suggesting that group living is a secondary option to independent reproduction. The Australian allodapine bee Exoneura bicolor exhibits a number of traits that occur in cooperatively breeding bird species, including long life-span, repeated opportunities for reproduction, and vulnerability to brood predation and parasitism. We experimentally examined the effect of a potentially limiting environmental factor, nesting substrate availability, as an agent influencing sociality in E. bicolor. We manipulated nesting substrate availability in two separate locations during a time when foundress dispersal is common. No significant difference was found between colony sizes in cases where dispersal options were abundant and cases where dispersal options were limited. An increase in opportunities for dispersal did not lead to higher rates of independent nesting, suggesting that cooperative nesting is a preferred strategy regardless of distance-related costs of dispersal. Reproductivity per female and brood survival were examined as factors selecting for group living. Low survival of brood in single-female nests has the potential to select for cooperative nesting in this bee. Received: 29 September 1995/Accepted after revision: 24 June 1996     

SYNTHESIS OF FLOW-DURATION CURVES FOR UNREGULATED STREAMS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

ABSTRACT: Flow-duration curves are concise pictures of flow variability at a point on a stream, and provide essential information for all water-resource planning. In New Hampshire, useful estimates of flow-duration curves for ungaged points on unregulated streams can be made using only information readily available from contour maps: 1) area of the basin above the point of interest; and 2) either the measured mean basin elevation or the elevations of the highest and lowest points in the basin. Measured or estimated mean basin elevation is then used in regression equations to estimate mean flow QC and the flow exceeded 95% of the time, Q₉₅. QC is assumed to occur at the 27% exceedance frequency. Q₀₂, Q₀₅, and Q₃₀ are estimated as multiples of QC. Equations are provided for calculating 95% confidence intervals for future estimates using the method. The dependence of mean flow on elevation is due to positive vertical precipitation gradients and negative vertical evapotranspiration gradients. The dependence of Q₉₅ on elevation appears to be due largely to the fact that it rains more often, that snowmelt takes longer, and that evapotranspiration is reduced at higher elevations.     

The application of the psychological contract to workplace safety

INTRODUCTION: Psychological contracts of safety are conceptualized as the beliefs of individuals about reciprocal safety obligations inferred from implicit or explicit promises. Although the literature on psychological contracts is growing, the existence of psychological contracts in relation to safety has not been established. The research sought to identify psychological contracts in the conversations of employees about safety, by demonstrating reciprocity in relation to employer and employee safety obligations. The identified safety obligations were used to develop a measure of psychological contracts of safety. METHOD: The participants were 131 employees attending safety training sessions in retail and manufacturing organizations. Non-participant observation was used to collect the data during safety training sessions. Content analysis was used to analyze the data. Categories for coding were established through identification of language markers that demonstrated contingencies or other implied obligations. RESULTS: Direct evidence of reciprocity between employer safety obligations and employee safety obligations was found in statements from the participants demonstrating psychological contracts. A comprehensive list of perceived employer and employee safety obligations was compiled and developed into a measure of psychological contracts of safety. A small sample of 33 safety personnel was used to validate the safety obligations. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Implications of these findings for safety and psychological contract research are discussed.     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Public perception of air pollution sources across Europe

Air pollution is one of the primary concerns of our society for its effect on human health and the environment. Among the policy measures that can be put in place to limit air pollutant emissions, end-of-pipe technologies and/or regulatory instruments may be implemented through legislative acts. Also, equally important are behavioural measures, requiring citizens’ active involvement. The success of any measure to limit pollutant emissions requires the acceptance by the citizens that, in turn, implies a correct perception of the main pollutant emission drivers. We present here the comparison between the public perception of air pollution sources and the real-world situation through a survey carried out in seven European countries and involving 16 101 respondents. Our study shows a dramatic underestimation of the contribution of the agri-food sector to air pollution. This result is common to all respondents in the seven countries examined and only to a small extent depends on gender, age and socio-economic status of the respondents.     

Spatial interactions in habitat conservation: Evidence from prairie pothole easements

We examine the role of spatial interactions in conservation easements placed on prairie pothole habitat in western Canada. One of the goals of the conservation easement program we study is to protect contiguous habitat. We identify endogenous spatial interactions among conservation easements and government protected land, independent of spatially correlated landscape features and local economic shocks that influence easement enrollment. We present evidence that easements increase the likelihood of subsequent easements on neighboring land. Government-protected land appears to have little effect on the location of conservation easements. These results imply that conservation agencies have leveraged past conservation investment to enroll more contiguous habitat in permanent easements through a combination of targeting and positive social interactions among neighboring landowners.