灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

US Government Natural Disaster Assistance: Historical Analysis and a Proposal for the Future

Governments often provide grants or low-interest loans to disaster victims. Yet these programmes have proven to be quite costly. In addition, questions have been raised about associated behavioural incentives. Conceptually, government disaster insurance programmes should be more efficient, consistent and equitable than ex post facto disaster relief in the form of grants and loans. Yet the performance of government disaster insurance programmes has been mixed, at best. This article reviews the history of US federal natural disaster assistance to individuals and concludes with a recommendation for a new government role in the provision of disaster insurance.     

Cracking the Achilles’ heel of energy performance contracting projects: the credit risk identification method for clients

ABSTRACT

A credit risk identification model is established to examine the credit status of Energy performance contracting (EPC) project clients (i.e., energy-using companies) in China based on rough set theory. The model is verified with data from 120 listed companies at different times. Study shows that lack of credit is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of EPC projects, and information asymmetry is the main reason for this lack of credit among potential clients in China. The credit risk identification method based on rough set theory can make up for the shortcomings of existing EPC projects in terms of credit risk identification, including redundant information and indicators, and unclear decision rules. Credit risk identification indicators of clients are dynamic. The research results can help energy service companies (ESCOs) determine the credit status of clients, facilitate cooperation between ESCOs and clients, and help explain the various dynamics of clients’ credit risk identification indicators over time.     

战略导弹核武器系统人因工程应用研究

以战略导弹核武器系统的设计、生产、使用与维修为背景，分析了人为失误的定义、原因及分类，并根据模糊图理论，提出了一种评估人员可靠性的双向模糊图模型，并对人因工程学在战略导弹核武器系统的应用，提出了一些看法和建议。     

Assessing Landowner Activities Related to Birds Across Rural-to-Urban Landscapes

Fluctuations of bird abundances in the Midwest region of the United States have been attributed to such factors as landscape change, habitat fragmentation, depredation, and supplemental feeding. However, no attempt has been made to estimate the collective role of landowner activities that may influence birds across a landscape. To investigate how landowners might influence birds when the majority (> 90%) of land is privately owned, we surveyed all 1694 private domestic landowners living on three breeding bird survey routes (120 km) that represent a continuum of rural-to-urban landscapes in Southeastern Michigan from October through December 2000. Our survey was designed to investigate (1) the proportion of landowners involved in bird feeding, providing bird houses, planting or maintaining vegetation for birds, gardening, landscaping, applying fertilizer, and applying pesticides or herbicides; (2) whether differences existed between urban, suburban, and rural landowner activities; and (3) whether landowners that carried out a given activity were sociodemographically different from those who did not. Of the 968 respondents (58.5% response rate), 912 (94%) carried out at least one of the activities on their land and the average landowner carried out 3.7 activities. A total of 65.6% fed birds, 45.7% provided bird houses, 54.6% planted or maintained vegetation for birds, 72.7% gardened, 72.3% landscaped, 49.3% applied fertilizer, and 25.2% applied pesticides or herbicides. Significant differences existed between the landscapes, with rural landowners having more bird houses and applying pesticides or herbicides in greater frequency. Similarly, urban landowners had a greater density of bird feeders and houses, but planted or maintained vegetation in the lowest frequency. Participation in activities varied by demographic factors, such as age, gender, and occupation. Scaling each activity to all landowners, including nonrespondents, across all landscapes indicates that between 14% and 82% of landowners may be engaged in a particular activity, with application of pesticides or herbicides having the least potential involvement (13.9%–55.4%) and gardening having the greatest potential involvement (40.1%–81.6%). Taken collectively, our results indicate that landowners are both intentionally and unintentionally engaged in a wide range of activities that are likely to influence bird populations.     

Rough Set Rule Induction for Suitability Assessment

The data that characterize an environmental system are a fundamental part of an environmental decision-support system. However, obtaining complete and consistent data sets for regional studies can be difficult. Data sets are often available only for small study areas within the region, whereas the data themselves contain uncertainty because of system complexity, differences in methodology, or data collection errors. This paper presents rough-set rule induction as one way to deal with data uncertainty while creating predictive if–then rules that generalize data values to the entire region. The approach is illustrated by determining the crop suitability of 14 crops for the agricultural soils of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. To implement this method, environmental and crop yield data were spatially related to individual soil units, forming the examples needed for the rule induction process. Next, four learning algorithms were defined by using different subsets of environmental attributes. ROSETTA, a software system for rough set analysis, was then used to generate rules using each algorithm. Cross-validation analysis showed that all crops had at least one algorithm with an accuracy rate greater than 68%. After selecting a preferred algorithm, the induced classifier was used to predict the crop suitability of each crop for the unclassified soils. The results suggest that rough set rule induction is a useful method for data generalization and suitability analysis.     

Forest Perception and Knowledge of Hikers and Mountain Bikers in Two Different Areas in Northwestern Switzerland

Recreational activities can have major impacts on vegetation and wildlife in frequently visited forests. We assessed forest perception and knowledge (state, functions, and species diversity) among hikers and mountain bikers in a frequently visited, seminatural suburban recreation forest (Muttenz) and in a more distantly situated, naturally grown excursion forest (Wasserfallen) in northwestern Switzerland. In all, 239 hikers and 126 mountain bikers were interviewed. Mountain bikers in both forests and hikers in the more intensely used recreation forest at Muttenz assessed the state of the forest less optimistically and showed a higher awareness of the negative impact of recreational activities on the flora and fauna than hikers at Wasserfallen. Furthermore, mountain bikers seemed aware of the social conflicts caused by their activity, since they appreciated neutral or positive encounters with other forest visitors. In contrast, 57% of hikers at Muttenz reported on negative experiences with other forest visitors, particularly with mountain bikers. In general, the interviewees ecological and biological forest knowledge (forest type and function, species diversity) was rather high. A large proportion was aware of the pros and cons of different forest conditions for plants and animals, and could name or recognize at least some plant and/or animal species typical for the visited forest. The forest knowledge was neither influenced by the type of recreational activity carried out nor by any aspect of forest visit behavior (frequency and duration of forest visits, means of transportation and travel distance to forest). However, the interviewees forest knowledge was influenced by their age and educational level.     

火灾后钢筋混凝土损伤程度的灰关联分析

由于火灾对钢筋混凝土结构的影响存在不确定性,使得人们不能准确地确定火灾后钢筋混凝土结构的损伤程度,给评估和加固修复带来很大困难。本文运用灰色系统理论中灰关联分析数学模型定量分析了高温下钢筋混凝土梁的3种影响因素,并确定了各因素间的主次关系,为高温后钢筋混凝土结构的安全评估及修复加固提供了理论依据。     

黄河口治理与“三约束”理论

黄河口治理是黄河治理的重要问题之一,黄河口治理观点有河口提动论、河口相对稳定论、固住河口论。本文分析了固住河口的必要性和可行性,提出了“三约束”理论,认为黄河口治理关键是固住河口。