基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析

为解决危险品风险分析问题,利用粗糙集理论在处理不确定、不精确问题上的优势,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析方法。首先,建立决策表,经化简后获得各属性的重要度,识别出影响危险品运输的主要因素与次要因素,以及主次因素所占比例;然后,利用区分函数对决策表进行约简,得出决策表的属性约简;最后,利用决策表的决策规则对原始数据进行推导,得出危险品运输事故的一般规律。结果表明,影响危险品运输事故类型的最重要因素是危险品的类型,所占比重为42.86%,其次是危险品运输的道路状况与危险品运输车辆状况,各占28.57%。在道路状况欠佳且车辆状况良好的前提下,腐蚀品发生危险品事故的严重程度要依次高于毒害品与压缩气体和液化气体。     

海上应急保障资源调度的多目标模糊规划模型

针对现有应急资源调度模型无法完全适应海上应急保障环境的问题,建立了基于多目标模糊规划的海上应急资源调度模型.首先,将不确定的航行时间和资源需求量表示为三角模糊数,用时间隶属度函数的全积分对模糊应急开始时间进行确定化表示,用需求量隶属度表示需求点所接收的资源数量满足需求的程度.然后,考虑各需求点和各类资源的重要程度,以系统的时效性、需求满意度、安全性和经济性为优化目标建立多目标规划模型,最后,给出了模型的求解方法,并通过算例分析证明了方法的有效性.     

改进突变理论在井下排水方案优选中的应用

为了更精确合理地对新桥硫铁矿排水方案进行优选,对利用突变理论的方法进行优化,建立突变理论和熵权法相结合的改进模型。从经济和工程量方面出发,综合考虑了影响排水方案优选的3个层次的12个指标,统计样本数据。运用熵权法分层确定同一上层变量下各指标的客观权重,导入突变理论中,建立综合评价结构模型,消除了主观因素的影响。同时运用突变理论和EM-TOPSIS进行方案优选,通过对比3种方法的优选结果,证明了改进突变理论的可靠性与合理性。     

基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。     

危险品运输网络优化设计研究综述

为分析当今反恐新形势下的危险品运输网络优化设计问题的研究现状,系统总结国内外关于一般场景和恐怖袭击威胁2种情况下危险品运输网络优化设计研究的主要模型和方法,梳理两者现有的研究内容,并讨论其共性及恐怖袭击威胁情景下的研究的新特点。结果发现:目前关于解决危险品运输网络优化设计问题模型的鲁棒性研究较为缺乏,尤其是模型在更为复杂和不确定性更强的恐怖袭击情景中适用性不强;危险品运输的鲁棒优化模型即使在突发事件条件下,也可以使决策者能够作出相对满意的决策;鲁棒性危险品运输网络能够规避风险扰动,可用来防止在恐怖袭击中因危险品车辆爆炸等造成更大的危害。     

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化方法研究

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化通常采用极差标准化等方法,这类方法默认各区域集约临界值相同,从而使得评价中区位好的区域土地集约水平高于区位差的区域。基于级差地租Ⅰ和级差地租Ⅱ理论提出新的指标标准化方法,指出传统指标标准化方法的问题,并以重庆市耕地集约利用空间分异为例进行实证比较。研究充分考虑了不同区域因禀赋差异造成的单项指标理想值(临界值)的差异,弥补了传统指标标准化方法的不足,有助于完善土地集约利用空间分异的研究。研究表明:土地利用集约度是一个相对概念,其参照物为区域土地集约临界点,理论基础是级差地租Ⅱ;区位不同导致区域间土地利用强度存在差异,它是级差地租Ⅰ的一类现象,这类差异可称为"禀赋差异";每个区位点适度指标标准化值Y与该区位指标现状值x₁₁和集约临界点x₁有关,与其他区位指标现状值无关;传统标准化方法将指标现状值或现状平均值设为集约临界值,没有考虑不同区位集约临界点差异,因而空间分异结果更符合土地收益空间分异规律;重庆市耕地集约利用度空间分异研究表明该方法在空间分异、集约度绝对值和区县集约度比较等方面优于传统方法,更符合不同区县耕地利用实际。     

中国环境基准研究重点方向探讨

环境基准是环境标准的科学依据,在国家环境质量评价和风险管理体系中处于基础地位。它主要是依据特定对象在环境介质中的暴露数据,以及与环境要素的剂量效应关系数据,通过科学判断得出的,涉及环境化学、毒理学、生态学、流行病学、生物学和风险评估等前沿学科领域。国家环境基准研究是一个长期的系统工程,本文基于环境基准研究的学科特点和国际前沿,结合国家科技需求和相关领域的研究现状,综合分析并提出了未来中国环境基准研究的重点研究方向:1)环境基准的理论与方法学;2)环境基准基础数据库;3)基准目标污染物的筛选甄别和优先排序技术;4)水体营养物基准;5)生物测试与毒性评价技术;6)人体暴露评价理论与相关技术;7)环境基准的审核和校对;8)环境基准与标准转化理论及其对环境管理支撑技术。本文从环境基准学科发展的角度,阐述了与环境基准研究紧密相关的8个重点研究方面的国内外研究进展、关键科学问题以及未来重点研究内容。同时指出,这些重要的研究方向是环境基准研究的根本,未来环境基准的长期战略发展必将是建立在各个重要方向长足发展的基础之上,环境基准研究也必带动这些方向的共同蓬勃发展,为环境地球化学、毒理学、生态学等学科领域发展注入活力。     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

A Social Analysis of the Bioinvasions of Dreissena polymorpha in Spain and Hydrilla verticillata in Guatemala

Human agency plays a key role in the processes of biological invasions. This comprises not only the human role in the configuration of driving forces or in the perception of the impacts, but also the conceptualization of alien species themselves as an environmental problem. This paper examines different stakeholders' positions in bioinvasion processes at different scales, and it looks at their relevance for the management of invasive species. It compares two cases: the invasion process of Dreissena polymorpha in the Ebro River in Spain and the case of Hydrilla verticillata in Lake Izabal, Guatemala. Our results are structured according to impacts and to management options. The discussion focuses on the relevance of incorporating the different stakeholders' interests and values in the analysis and management of biological invasions. Although social analysis of stakeholders' positions is necessary in order to foster management actions, it also reveals conflicts on the relevant criteria and on the very definition of invasive species.     

Environmental Policy Beliefs of Stakeholders in Protected Area Management

Although the importance of understanding stakeholder beliefs regarding environmental policy has been noted by many authors, research focusing on the heterogeneity of stakeholder views is still very scarce and concentrated on a product-oriented definition of stakeholders. The aim of the present study is to address this gap by examining environmental policy beliefs of stakeholder groups engaged in protected area management. Questionnaires containing 73 five-point Likert scale items were administered to eight different stakeholder groups involved in the management of Greek protected areas. Items referred to core beliefs on environmental policy, namely, the value framework and sustainable development, and secondary beliefs, that is, beliefs on social consensus and ecotourism development. Our study used as a starting point respondent recruitment on the basis of a traditional product-centered approach. We investigated whether environmental policy beliefs can be used to effectively segregate stakeholders in well-defined segments, which override the product-oriented definition of stakeholders. Indeed, K-means clustering revealed an innovation-introduction and an implementation-charged sample segment. The instrument utilized in this research proved quite reliable and valid in measuring stakeholder environmental policy beliefs. Furthermore, the methodology implied that stakeholder groups differ in a significant number of belief-system elements. On the other hand, stakeholder groups were effectively distinguished on a small set of both core and secondary beliefs. Therefore, the instrument used can be an effective tool for determining and monitoring environmental policy beliefs of stakeholders in protected area management. This is of considerable importance in the Greek case, given the recent establishment of 27 administrative bodies of protected areas, all of which are required to incorporate public consultation into management practices.