A STOCHASTIC MODEL TO EVALUATE RIPARIAN IRRIGATION EXPANSION IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation has expanded in parts of the eastern United States. In some areas, the adjoining surface (riparian) water is the most economical source of irrigation water. Expanded demand for riparian water may lead to conflict among irrigators and other streamflow users. Accurate information on the potential for and impacts of riparian irrigation expansion is needed to decide if control of such expansion is necessary. In this study, a stochastic economic model to evaluate the impacts of potential irrigation expansion is presented. The model considers the soil, location, and land use characteristics of individual sites, as well as weather and streamflow patterns. The application of the model to an eastern Virginia watershed indicates that, with maximum potential expansion, water availability becomes limited and yields will be reduced in some years. As a result, the expected net returns from irrigation and the probability of breaking even on the investment are reduced substantially. The results suggest the need to consider regulation of surface water allocation for irrigation development in riparian watersheds.     

褐色土地利益相关者的环境冲突及其解决途径初探

随着中国城市化进程的不断加快,城市土地资源日益稀缺,褐色土地的再开发戊为城市土地资源可持续利用的重要手段。在褐色土地开发过程中难免会涉及政府、企业、居民、工业企业、开发商、金融机构、媒体等多方利益相关主体,并引发错综复杂的利益纠纷与冲突。在倡导构建和谐社会的今天,对褐色土地利益相关者间的相互关系、环境冲突及其解决办法的研究也就具有重要的现实意义。     

城市道路交叉口交通安全水平评价及改善对策研究

针对国内外利用历史性的事故统计资料来评价城市道路交叉口交通安全水平的缺陷和不足,笔者结合我国道路交通安全管理的特点,提出一种以交通冲突技术和灰色理论为理论依据的城市交叉口交通安全评价方法。应用该方法,对山东省潍坊市市区48个城区交叉口的交通安全状况进行评价,并根据评价结果提出交叉口的几点改善对策。实证表明:该方法能有效解决城市道路交叉口安全性评价问题,取得比较满意的结果。     

Management of mountain areas in Norway and the persistence of local–national conflicts

We have investigated why conflicts linked to the distribution of power between governments and actors at the national and local levels concerning environmental management of mountain areas in Norway persist despite political intentions to strengthen local powers. We seek to explain this by analysing changes in policies, institutional frameworks, and regional contexts, and the local perceptions of these changes. Paradoxically, the national government's power has apparently been strengthened by new sectoral regulations and more stringent enforcement of the existing ones, increases in the number and extent of protected areas, and failures to act on intentions to devolve power. An additional factor spurring conflicts is the increased importance of tourism to mountain communities. To become more relevant to policies and development in mountain areas, future studies on multilevel governance must address multilevel politics, entire mountain areas, and the context of their development, rather than focusing on minor projects and protected areas.     

How Competing Securitized Discourses over Land Appropriation Are Constructed: The Promotion of Solar Energy in the Israeli Desert

Although solar farms are often favorably received by the public due to their contribution to clean energy, they are not conflict-free. In various contexts, this land-intensive technology often competes with other land uses like agriculture, nature reserves, and army training. As a result of this competition, interest groups often seek political leverage in order to prioritize their spatial use. Framing their uses as existential is one possible way to capture the attention of decision-makers. Yet, this securitization process may create a framing contest whereby different actors use similar securitization language to promote different land uses. This study is the first attempt to trace how this framing contest of securitized discourses over land appropriation is constructed. It is based on the Israeli experience of promoting solar energy in the Negev Desert, an area conceived as available to solar development. Through an analysis of protocols of Israeli policy-makers’ meetings between 2002 and 2011, the study documents the ways in which players adopt securitized language concerning various land uses such as energy, food, ecology, and traditional (national) security. The study found that the use of securitized framing varies between uses, forums, actors, and sectors. Yet competition between securities discourses remained uneven as, in the Israeli context, many players find it difficult to challenge the hegemonic role of traditional (national) security.     

How to overcome the development deadlock in the Quilombo Vila Formosa,Brazil?

ABSTRACT

Although Brazilian Quilombolas possess specific land rights referring to their past as African slaves, the realization of such rights often fails due to the absence of land surveys, clarified institutional competencies and the general lack of power under which minorities suffer. Additional factors such as an expanding commercial agriculture contributing to land and water degradation and new actors introducing new logics intransparent to traditional populations often aggravate the situation. In order to identify options for traditional populations to overcome a development-deadlock typical for peripheral regions, the case of a Quilombo in Pará/Brazil will be analysed that has been struggling since decades with conflicting land tenure legislations and institutions. Starting from an inter- and transdisciplinary qualitative research process, scenario building by backcasting can represent an innovative approach to organize the central conflicts which have to be solved in order to overcome the development deadlock of the Quilombo Vila Formosa in Pará.     

Reflections: Resolving conflicting demands within disaster risk and recovery

This ‘reflection’ describes conflicting experiences, drawn from the author’s career in varied aspects of disaster risk management and recovery (1973–2016) delving into his memory, Ian Davis explores conflicts he has felt in four parallel roles he has adopted as architect, NGO board member, academic and the personal challenges he has faced working within the humanitarian sector. After describing these encounters, some practical solutions are suggested. The reflection concludes with a suggestion that at the root of these conflicts there is a need for people working in the humanitarian field to become more accountable in a downward direction towards those they seek to serve, who often lack power and influence. These include an architect’s clients, the beneficiaries of an NGO’s concern, an academic’s students or trainees and more broadly an ethical challenge that the author strives after, to regard his work as a vocation, highlighting the need for service to others rather than self-promotion.     

Socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower: The São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil

Economic expansion and related resource and infrastructure needs provoke an increase of socio-environmental conflicts worldwide, and methodologies for their comprehensive analysis and understanding are necessary. The present paper suggests a methodology for the analysis of socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower, developed from a case study on the São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil. On the basis of qualitative semi-structured interviews, a stakeholder definition and conflict analysis were carried out. The analysis shows that at least five different sub-conflicts, each one with its own characteristics, can be distinguished, and that negotiation on many of these conflicts is difficult. Confrontation processes are therefore likely to occur. The current strategy of conflict treatment falls short of the situation; instead solutions must be sought looking at the underlying conflict causes. A restructuring of the energy policy and the approach to traditional populations is a necessary precondition if robust and comprehensive solutions on the current socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower in the Amazon were to be found.     

农地分配制度不是农地冲突的根本原因——基于湖北和湖南农村问卷调查的实证分析

农地冲突是当前我国农村经济发展和城镇化进程中的普遍问题,在—些地方相当突出,严重影响了农村的社会稳定和经济发展,探讨农地冲突的原因有助于化解农村矛盾及构建和谐繁荣的农村社区。本文利用笔者在湖北和湖南两省收集到的数据,应用Logit概率模型实证分析了农地分配制度、非农就业收入及其差距和人力资本等可能引起农地冲突的因素的影响。与通常的看法不同,本文并没有发现农地分配制度是农地冲突的显著诱因,原因可能在于我国的农地在改革初期是按人口或劳动力平均分配的,其后的调整大多也是经农民自主协商按照市场规则完成的,并没有引起农民的明显不满,因而也就没有成为农地冲突的诱因。本文的研究结果还表明,非农就业收入、非农就业收入差距和家庭人力资本对农地冲突的影响显著,非农就业收入越低,其差距越小,家庭人力资本越多,农地冲突发生的概率越大,是农地冲突的主要诱因。这表明非农就业收入越少,农民通过非农就业增加家庭收入的隧道效应越弱,对农业收入的依赖性越大,农地就越重要,农地冲突越容易发生;家庭男性成员越多,家庭社会地位越高,在打架斗殴和上访诉讼中越占优势,农地冲突也越容易爆发。因此,为了减少农地冲突,应采取切实措施,促进农村劳动力向非农部门转移,加强农村法制建设,限制丛林行为。     

闽南地区农村征地冲突的风险预警及防范对策--以福建省晋江市为例

借鉴社会冲突理论构建了农村征地冲突风险预警指标体系,并以闽南地区晋江市为案例区,运用模糊综合评价法分析了农村征地冲突风险警级水平及其产生机制。结果表明:闽南地区农村征地冲突风险水平整体处于中警级别,农村征地冲突风险警级水平与该区域的特征密切相关。基于研究结果,为有效防范闽南地区农村征地冲突风险,应从完善征地纠纷矛盾调解机制、尊重农户心理需求和文化认同、建立分级控制预警机制等方面制定风险防范对策。