The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.     

Fostering food and energy security through by-product valorization within agricultural and agro-industrial networks: study of the province of Santiago de Cuba

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to investigate of how the concept of ‘integrated food and energy systems’ or IFES production networks could be applied – within the specific context of Eastern Cuba’s agricultural and agro-industrial sectors – as an innovative approach to improve food and energy security. The Province of Santiago de Cuba in southeast Cuba was the focus of this study; its existing operations, infrastructure, resource flows and scarcities, and actor relationships provide the basis of the data used for the evaluation.

The authors investigated the regional context, identify potential members of an agricultural and agro-industrial network in three municipalities of the province, and identify the main residuals and by-products of key facilities. Potential avenues for by-product valorization are investigated along with the possible influence/impacts on the sustainability of the surrounding systems and actors. A conceptual model for a regional network for integrated food and energy production is then provided based upon the development of three agricultural/agro-industrial scenarios: influence at the farm level, regional agro-industrial networks, and ‘anchor tenant’ eco-industrial systems. The main challenges and opportunities for the development of the networks are described with recommendations for addressing such where possible.     

Sharing and preparing: cross-institutional,food security-based knowledge in Canada

This study proposes a framework for the collection and management of knowledge related to food security in Canada. This paper has several goals. First, the paper summarizes the current state of food security knowledge in Canada. Second, the paper presents data from an experiment where food security issues were discussed by stakeholders at two fora, the first of which was held in western Canada and the second held in eastern Canada. Finally, based on the notes taken during and feedback received after the fora, this paper suggests a framework for organizing and managing the multiple perspectives and complex types of knowledge about food security and sustainable development from a Canadian context. Two fora were held in Canada where food security issues were presented and discussed by multiple stakeholders. Most provinces in Canada were represented in at least one of the two sessions. Sessions were designed to be informative and interactive; agenda were designed to take advantage of the needs and experiences of multiple stakeholders in both western and eastern regions of Canada. To develop the framework, the sessions were also designed to assess the types of issues and knowledge about food security in Canada. Evidence presented from this experiment supports arguments that food security work must be approached in a collaborative manner, no matter the approach or discipline. Data from fora held in western and eastern regions of Canada indicate a number of specific ways in which those along the food continuum have the desire to share knowledge and enter into partnerships to work toward secure and sustainable food systems. Data also indicate how academia and institutions of higher learning might play a key role in sharing food security-based knowledge. The data from this study suggest that academia could play a leadership role in collecting and sharing information about food security-based knowledge from all disciplinary approaches that could help collaborative in addressing the complexity of food security challenges. The framework developed in this paper could provide the guide for organizing knowledge about food security and sustainable development. The framework could be used as a map to guide understanding about the different ways in which food security can be approached and understood; this could help reduce tensions among partners in projects where a wide variety of experiences are attempting to work collaboratively. The two food security fora brought together stakeholders with specialized knowledge about food security in a Canadian context. The analysis of data arising from the fora permitted unique insights to arise about the nature of knowledge by region. The data in this study also allowed us to build a framework for food security knowledge from these regional knowledge bases. This paper suggests that academia actively take a leadership role and openly share knowledge about food security. Open sharing of knowledge will help collaborates in dealing with complex food security issues understand in-depth other approaches; this sharing may help to make explicit the tensions that arise during collaborative work.     

《化工过程安全》双语教学课程的教材体系研究

在《化工过程安全》双语教学过程中,照搬使用国外教材不符合应用型本科院校学生的实际情况,达不到双语教学的预期效果。因此,根据笔者所在应用型本科院校安全工程专业学生的英语水平、专业知识基础及国外原版化工过程安全教材内容的广度与深度,对如何构建适合于应用型本科院校安全工程专业使用的《Chemical Process Safety》双语教材的知识体系进行了研究。形成的初步讲义在双语教学实践过程中取得了较好的效果,有望在继续修改后编印成一本适合于应用型本科院校安全工程专业学生使用的《Chemical Process Safety》英文讲义。     

Predicting barrier passage and habitat suitability for migratory fish species

Fish migrate to spawn, feed, seek refuge from predators, and escape harmful environmental conditions. The success of upstream migration is limited by the presence of barriers that can impede the passage of fish. We used a spatially explicit modeling strategy to examine the effects of barriers on passage for 21 native and non-native migratory fish species and the amount of suitable habitat blocked for each species. Spatially derived physical parameter estimates and literature based fish capabilities and tolerances were used to predict fish passage success and habitat suitability. Both the fish passage and the habitat suitability models accurately predicted fish presence above barriers for most common, non-stocked species. The fish passage model predicted that barriers greater than or equal to 6 m block all migratory species. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was expected to be blocked the least. The habitat suitability model predicted that low gradient streams with intact habitat quality were likely to support the highest number of fish species. The fish passage and habitat suitability models were intended to be used by environmental managers as strategy development tools to prioritize candidate dams for field assessment and make decisions regarding the management of migratory fish populations.     

Embedding the human factor in road tunnel risk analysis

The paper is focusing on road tunnel safety and builds upon the Directive 2004/54/EC launched by the European Commission; the latter sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of risk assessment in several tunnel cases apart from technical measures imposed on the basis of tunnel structural and operational characteristics. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing risk assessment, a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods through a tunnel, they do not take into account, sufficiently, several organizational and human-related factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM method for human reliability analysis (Hollnagel, 1998) in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator's performance in safety critical situations. It is deduced that a human reliability analysis component to analyze operator performance, like the fuzzy system proposed here, is important for risk analysts. Consideration of organizational and human factors will enhance risk analysts’ studies and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.     

SWOT analysis for socio-ecological landscape variation as a precursor to the management of the mountainous Kanshi watershed,Salt Range of Pakistan

Variations in geo-environmental attributes differ strongly from those of urban anthropogenic structures. Similarly, these types of structures are self-directed and arranged and prone to abrupt process-related changes and modifications. Thus, there are many reasons why planned urbanization forms in association with disturbances in ecosystem mobility. The current research highlights these variations in the context of social–cultural assessments within the Jhelum River watershed, which strongly expresses urbanization structure development mechanisms. The climate ranges from semi-arid to subhumid subtropical and sub-mountainous climate, though the extreme temperatures may rise as high as 49.4°C in June and may drop as low as ?1.6°C in January. The rainfall is low in the southwest and gradually increases towards the northeast, whereas the Salt Range is the major topographic feature that controls climatic impacts and promotes sustainable development. Cross-disciplinary methods are adopted in this investigation to assess the social–ecological landscape system (SELS) in terms of its mobility and degree of urbanization. The Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda recognize that human livelihoods and the management of natural resources cannot be addressed separately. Investing in the sustainability of mountain communities and ecosystem conservation and protection will provide benefits for humanity as a whole. It pertains to the commensurate development of the SELS and its response to interruptions. Thus, a reliable SWOT analysis for management approaches is introduced that may enable the development of competencies that promote and lead towards rapid improvements in the sustainability of retrograde urban infrastructure, including watersheds.     

污水处理系统中硝化菌的菌群结构和动态变化

研究分析了4种不同工艺类型的城市污水处理厂中氨氧化细菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化细菌(NOB)的丰度及菌群结构.实时定量PCR结果表明4种工艺中AOB菌群的丰度范围为8.56×106~4.46×107cells/gMLSS;NOB菌群的丰度为3.37×108~1.53×109cells/gMLSS.每个工艺中Nitrospira都是优势NOB,占NOB菌群的88% 以上. A2O工艺冬季AOB和Nitrospira丰度比夏季均有所降低,这是导致冬季生物脱氮效果变差的主要原因.基于 amoA基因的系统发育分析结果显示所有的序列属于Nitrosomonas,其中Nitrosomonas oligotropha cluster 占克隆文库的60.1%,是AOB 种群中的优势菌属,Nitrosomonas-like cluster和 Nitrosomonas europaea cluster次之,分别占克隆文库的29.6%和9.1%.N. europaea cluster只在A2O工艺中出现,且在A2O工艺夏季污泥样品克隆文库中达到44.7%.低DO运行使N. europaea cluster成为优势AOB是A2O工艺夏季出现较高亚硝酸盐积累率的主要原因.研究结果证实了城市污水处理厂中优势AOB和NOB分别为Nitrosomonas和Nitrospira,硝化菌群占总菌群的1%~7%,其丰度、相对含量和菌群结构是影响硝化效果的主要因素.     

Introduction to the special issue of Ecological Modelling: “Advances in Modeling Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems: Approaches, Validation, and Applications”

The development and application of ecosystem models in estuarine and coastal systems has grown exponentially over the past four decades. Models have become ensconced as major tools for both heuristic study of ecosystem structure and function as well as for informing management decisions, particularly with respect to cultural eutrophication. In recent years an ever-expanding toolbox of modeling approaches is being offered to complement traditional methods. This expansion of modeling in estuarine and coastal science was exemplified by four sessions devoted to modeling at the 2007 biennial conference of the Estuarine Research Federation in Providence, RI. We felt the time was right to propose a special session of Ecological Modelling to synthesize talks from these sessions to present the state of the art in coastal and estuarine modeling. The collection of papers contained in this special issue presents a diversity of traditional and novel modeling approaches, methods for assessing model validity and predictability, and the utility of models in management applications. We believe that together these papers provide an excellent overview of current approaches to modeling estuarine hydrodynamics, water quality, and ecosystem/food web dynamics, applications of complex and relatively simple modeling approaches, applications in both deep and shallow coastal systems, goals relevant for both heuristic and management applications, and perspectives based on traditional mechanistic model development as well as more recent alternative approaches.     

HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.