HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

Considering the locals: coastal construction and destruction in times of climate change on Anjouan,Comoros

The current discussion of anticipated climate change impacts and future sea level rise is particularly relevant to small island states. An increase in natural hazards, such as floods and storm waves, is likely to have a devastating impact on small islands' coastlines, severely affecting targeted sustainable development. Coastal erosion, notably human‐induced erosion, has been an ongoing threat to small island biodiversity, resources, infrastructure, and settlements, as well as society at large. In the context of climate change, the problem of coastal erosion and the debate surrounding it is gaining momentum. Before attributing associated impacts to climate change, current human activities need to be analysed, focusing not only on geomorphological and climatological aspects, but also on political and traditional cultural frameworks. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of the social‐political‐ecological systems analysis for adaptation strategies, and thus for future sustainable development. Coastal use is based on human constructs of the coast, as well as local perceptions and values ascribed to the coast. We use the case study of Anjouan, Comoros to differentiate between constructive and destructive practices on the coast, from both a mental and technical perspective. Beach erosion is described as more than a resource problem that manifests itself locally rather than nationally. Divergent political scales of interest impact future development as much as local action. Local action is not least framed by mental contribution and attribution of coasts as places for living, recreation and resource use. The present case study demonstrates that mental constructs of coasts as valuable areas can, in some cases, lead to the protection and preservation of beaches by initiatives of collective action. At the same time, local communities see the negative impacts of sand mining as causes of coastal erosion and, therefore, it is difficult to mobilize them to adapt to climate change and sea level rise.     

The role of personal experience in frequency of rainwater tank maintenance and policy implications

Domestic rainwater tanks have a long history in Australia, although more recently they have been common only in remote and rural areas. However, in some urban areas, recent drought conditions have led to the promotion of rainwater tanks to supplement domestic water supplies. Evidence suggests that water tank maintenance may be insufficient in many cases, leading to problems with water quality and the potential spread of vector-borne disease. Drawing on research into the impact of personal experience (i.e. procedural knowledge) relating to pro-environmental behaviour, a survey of urban residents with mandated rainwater tanks (N?=?746) was conducted. The study assessed whether past personal history of living with a tank influenced the frequency of tank maintenance behaviours. Analyses indicated that both childhood and prior adult experience with rainwater tanks were important in predicting adequate tank maintenance behaviour, particularly among males. The results also showed that attitudinal perceptions of water culture did not influence maintenance behaviour, whereas direct past experiences did, suggesting an important role for procedural knowledge. These results are discussed with reference to the promotion of tank maintenance and other pro-environmental behaviours through the development of future environmental policies designed to foster the development of pro-environmental skills to empower citizens.     

Application of integrated micro sensor in internal measurement of high temperature fuel cell

This study developed an integrated (flow, voltage, and temperature) micro sensor using the micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology. It was inserted into the high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell (HT-PEMFC) for local real-time measurement. The integrated micro sensor is made of 40 µm thick stainless steel base material, and its protective layer is formed by polyimide (PI) that has better temperature resistance. The integrated micro sensor has three functions, and is favorably characterized by small size, good acid resistance and temperature resistance, quick response, real-time measurement, and being able to be put in any place for measurement. After calibration, and its reliability confirmed, the integrated micro sensor is inserted into the HT-PEMFC for local microcosmic measurement.     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.     

Climate Change Coverage in Greek Newspapers: 2001–2008

This paper's aim is to identify the debate and document the coverage of climate change (CC) in the Greek national press and to assess to what extent this reporting exhibits the traits anticipated by the “polarized pluralist” character of the Greek “media system.” In order to do this, we analyzed articles published in three Greek quality newspapers (Kathimerini, Ta NEA, and Eleftherotypia) over the period 2001–2008 (N =2072). Our findings suggest a mixed picture: the Greek media debate is characterized by consensus on the anthropogenic causes of CC and on the promotion of renewable energy sources as a means for tackling Greek CC-related emissions. However when examining more specific/controversial CC-policy decisions, there is less evidence supporting a close link with the national character of Greek media reporting, with newspapers appearing to align themselves along partisan lines.     

How planners and stakeholders learn with visualization tools: using learning sciences methods to examine planning processes

Planning researchers traditionally conceptualize learning as cognitive changes in individuals. In this tradition, scholars assess learning with pre- and post-measures of understandings or beliefs. While valuable for documenting individual change, such methods leave unexamined the social processes in which planners think, act, and learn in groups, which often involve the use of technical tools. The present interdisciplinary research program used Learning Sciences research methods, including conversation analysis, interaction analysis, and visualization of discourse codes, to understand how tools like agent-based models and geographic information systems mediate learning in planning groups. The objective was to understand how the use of these tools in participatory planning can help stakeholders learn about complex environmental problems, to make more informed judgments about the future. The paper provides three cases that illustrate the capacity of such research methods to provide insights into planning groups’ learning processes, and the mediating roles of planning tools.     

新《防震减灾法》浅议——以汶川8.0级地震为例

以汶川8.0级地震为例,对新《防震减灾法》进行了解读,新《防震减灾法》在旧法的基础上,主要完善了防震减灾规划制度、建设工程抗震设防制度,增加了对学校医院等重要建筑和农村民居、乡村公共设施的抗震设防要求的规定,强化了防震减灾群测群防制度以加强对地震灾害的预防;完善了地震应急救援机制;进一步规范了地震灾后过渡性安置和恢复重建制度;加强了政府在防震减灾工作中的领导和协调作用。同时文中也指出了新《防震减灾法》存在的不足。     

The astysphere and urban geochemistry—a new approach to integrate urban systems into the geoscientific concept of spheres and a challenging concept of modern geochemistry supporting the sustainable development of planet earth

Background, aim, and scope  In 1875, the geoscientist Walter Suess introduced several spheres, such as the lithosphere and the atmosphere to promote a comprehensive understanding of the system earth. Since then, this idea became the dominating concept for the understanding of the distribution of chemical elements in the system earth. Meanwhile, due to the importance of human beings on global element fluxes, the term anthroposphere was introduced. Nevertheless, in face of the ongoing urbanization of the earth, this concept is not any more adequate enough to develop a comprehensive understanding of global element fluxes in and between solid, liquid, and gaseous phases. This article discusses a new concept integrating urbanization into the geoscientific concept of spheres. Main features  No geological exogenic force has altered the earth’s surface during the last centuries in such an extent as human activity. Humans have altered the morphology and element balances of the earth by establishing agrosystems first and urban systems later. Currently, urban systems happen to become the main regulators for fluxes of many elements on a global scale due to ongoing industrial and economic development and a growing number of inhabitants. Additionally, urban systems are constantly expanding and cover more and more former natural and agricultural areas. For nature, urban systems are new phenomena, which never existed in previous geological eras. The process of the globe’s urbanization concurrently is active with the global climate change. In fact, urban systems are a major emitter for climate active gases. Thus, beside the global changes in economy and society, urbanization is an important factor within the global change of nature as is already accepted for climate, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Results  Due to the fact that urbanization has become a global process shaping the earth and that the urban systems are globally cross-linked among each other, a new geoscientific sphere has to be introduced: the astysphere. This sphere comprises the parts of the earth influenced by urban systems. Accepting urbanization as global ongoing process forming the astysphere comprehensively copes with the growing importance of urbanization on the creation of present geologic formations. Discussion  Anthropogenic activities occur mainly in rural and urban environments. For long lasting periods of human history, human activities mainly were focused on hunting and agriculture, but since industrialization, urbanized areas became increasingly important for the material and energy fluxes of earth. Thus, it seems appropriate to classify the anthroposphere into an agriculturally and an urban-dominated sphere, which are the agrosphere (Krishna 2003) and the astysphere (introduced by Norra 2007). Conclusions  We have to realize that urban systems are deposits, consumers, and transformers of resources interacting among each other and forming a network around the globe. Since the future of human mankind depends on the sustainable use of available resources, only a global and holistic view of the cross-linked urban systems forming together the astysphere provide the necessary geoscientific background understanding for global urban material and energy fluxes. If we want to ensure worth-living conditions for future generations of mankind, we have to develop global models of the future needs for resources by the global metasystem of urban systems, called astysphere. Perspectives  The final vision for geoscientific research on the astysphere must be to design models describing the global process of urbanization of the earth and the development of the astysphere with respect to fluxes of materials, elements, and energy as well as with respect to the forming of the earth’s face. Besides that, just from the viewpoint of fundamental research, the geoscientific concept of spheres has to be complemented by the astysphere if this concept shall fully represent the system earth.