Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems1

Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379‐1389. Abstract: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social–ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities’ adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long‐term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.     

三效催化转化器智能故障诊断系统知识库设计

在分析三效催化转化器故障诊断知识特点的基础上,采用一些措施构建知识库,如采用神经网络方法对转化器工作状态参数进行处理,采用多层前馈神经网络模型和自组织神经网络模型获取知识,采用产生式规则形式和二元化产生式规则形式表达知识,设计量化模块和知识库模块转化知识,并采用多个神经网络来记忆知识。应用效果表明,三效催化转化器神经网络故障诊断专家系统的预报准确率较高,具有较大的实用性。     

Measurement techniques for organizational safety causal models: Characterization and suggestions for enhancements

Through a review of literature from diverse disciplines with actual and potential application to causal modeling of organizational safety risk, this paper explores issues regarding measurement techniques in a quantitative safety analysis context. The interdependencies of modeling perspectives, constructs, and measures are indentified, leading to (a) characterization and classification of measurement techniques, (b) suggestions on the selection of appropriate measurement methods for different types of model constructs including individual-level, global, configural, and shared, and (c) discussion of the modeling implications of interactions between measurement, constructs, and causal paths. A multi-dimensional perspective is offered through combinations of different “measurement methods” and “measurement bases”. A Bayesian approach is also proposed to operationalize the multi-dimensional measurements. Examples are provided to help explain the roles of these measurements in capturing the relation between organizational factors and safety performance. This paper is a product of research which has the primary purpose of extending Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling frameworks to include the effects of organizational factors as the fundamental causes of accidents and incidents.     

A case study of the opportunities and trade-offs associated with deproclamation of a protected area following a land claim in South Africa

Reconciling conservation and social justice imperatives is a major challenge facing many postcolonial states worldwide. Where historically disenfranchised communities have laid legal claim to protected areas, the typical resolution has been collaborative management agreements between the state and claimant communities. The real outcomes of such strategies for people and ecosystems have been seriously questioned, although alternative approaches are seldom explored. Here, we reflect on one such alternative that was pursued in a case in South Africa, where the land was handed back to the community and a replacement protected area created. Our objective was to explore the opportunities and trade-offs associated with this approach for communities and conservation agencies alike, and to compare these to typical collaborative management outcomes. Methods included key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys. We find that, surprisingly, this approach created more benefits for the conservation agency than for claimant communities. Indeed, the community experiences bore a striking resemblance to those experienced in collaborative management settings: intra-community conflict, confusion over leadership and serious questions about the boundaries of the “community”. Processes aimed at redressing past injustice in disputes over conservation land, regardless of the approach adopted, must bring with them a strong commitment to building institutional and leadership capacities within communities, and pay serious attention to the ways in which equity and social justice can be fostered after the settlement of a land claim. Settlement agreements are frequently treated as the final step towards social justice, but are in fact just the beginning.     

A review on optimization techniques for sizing of solar-wind hybrid energy systems

Solar and wind are inexhaustible, abundant, environmentally friendly and freely available renewable energy sources. Integration of these two sources has always been a complex optimization problem which requires efficient planning, designing and control strategies. Many researchers have designed cost effective and efficient hybrid solar-wind energy systems by using various available software tools and optimization algorithms. With the advancement in artificial intelligence methods, various new optimization techniques have been developed in the last few decades. This paper presents state of the art optimization methods applied to hybrid renewable based energy systems. A brief introduction of each technique is presented along with papers published in different reputed journals. This article also reviews different power management, control strategies and multi-objective optimization methods used for hybrid wind-solar systems. A case study is presented to demonstrate the efficacy of some of the algorithms.     

SAPS处理酸性矿山废水的模拟应用研究

根据硫酸盐还原菌(SRB)的生物矿化原理设计了一套连续碱度产生系统(SAPS)反应器,以市政污水处理厂的活性污泥为SRB提供源,南方常见的香芋柄为有机物碳源,选用石灰石为反应器中碱度层填充物,进行实验室模拟SAPS处理酸性矿山废水(AMD)的应用研究,实验结果表明,SAPS处理酸性矿山废水的方法是具有技术可行的:SRB利用有机碳源生长代谢,产生碱度、还原SO2-4和降解COD。最终废水p H从进水4.0左右上升到出水7.0左右;出水COD降低到约200 mg/L;SO2-4还原为各种硫化物,其还原率约为61%;不同金属离子在有机层和碱度层发生反应产生沉淀,其中Fe2+、Cu2+和Zn2+的去除效率分别约为76%、78.5%和82%,而主要靠物理吸附作用的Mn2+去除率较低;初次模拟SAPS运行到56 d时,系统最终因有机碳源不足而各项指标不再改变。     

城市固体废弃物管理系统温室气体排放核算研究综述

城市固体废弃物管理系统是产生温室气体的一个不可忽视的排放源。随着社会经济的快速发展和城市化水平的提高,城市固体废弃物排放量逐年增多,如何准确地核算城市固体废弃物管理系统温室气体排放已成为国内外关注的热点问题之一。本文概述了城市固体废弃物管理系统的演进与优化研究进展,重点对城市固体废弃物管理系统温室气体排放核算规范和标准及其影响因素的研究进行了综述,指出了研究中存在的问题。并进一步建议今后在城市不同类别的固体废弃物管理系统演进过程及其影响、温室气体排放的核算方法、温室气体排放的校正系数、城市固体废弃物管理系统的优化模式及温室气体减排机制等方面加强研究。     

The Key Role of the Barefoot Fisheries Advisors in the Co-managed TURF System of Galicia (NW Spain)

Many authors have pointed out the need for simpler assessment and management procedures for avoiding overexploitation in small-scale fisheries. Nevertheless, models for providing scientific advice for sustainable small-scale fisheries management have not yet been published. Here we present one model; the case of the Barefoot Fisheries Advisors (BFAs) in the Galician co-managed Territorial Users Rights for Fishing. Based on informal interviews, gray literature and our personal experience by being involved in this process, we have analyzed the historical development and evolution of roles of this novel and stimulating actor in small-scale fisheries management. The Galician BFA model allows the provision of good quality and organized fisheries data to facilitate and support decision-making processes. The BFAs also build robust social capital by acting as knowledge collectors and translators between fishers, managers, and scientists. The BFAs have become key actors in the small-scale fisheries management of Galicia and a case for learning lessons.     

From Multifunctionality to Multiple Ecosystem Services? A Conceptual Framework for Multifunctionality in Green Infrastructure Planning for Urban Areas

Green infrastructure (GI) and ecosystem services (ES) are promoted as concepts that have potential to improve environmental planning in urban areas based on a more holistic understanding of the complex interrelations and dynamics of social–ecological systems. However, the scientific discourses around both concepts still lack application-oriented frameworks that consider such a holistic perspective and are suitable to mainstream GI and ES in planning practice. This literature review explores how multifunctionality as one important principle of GI planning can be operationalized by approaches developed and tested in ES research. Specifically, approaches developed in ES research can help to assess the integrity of GI networks, balance ES supply and demand, and consider trade-offs. A conceptual framework for the assessment of multifunctionality from a social–ecological perspective is proposed that can inform the design of planning processes and support stronger exchange between GI and ES research.