长江流域四川区域城市水生态环境问题解析及治理对策

以长江流域四川区域18个城市为研究对象,分析了近5年区域内长江干流（四川段）、支流岷沱江和嘉陵江流域典型城市建成区的水环境质量变化趋势及主要污染指标,估算流域内城镇生活源、工业源和城市面源化学需氧量（COD）、氨氮、总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）污染排放负荷,解析城市水生态环境问题及成因。结果表明：近5年长江流域四川区域城市水体水质逐年向好,TP、氨氮、TN和COD是区域内水体的主要污染指标;城镇生活源为区域城市的主要污染源,城市基础设施建设不足、部分城市工业污染问题突出、丰水期城市面源负荷较大、资源型和水质型缺水并存等导致了城市水生态环境问题。在此基础上,提出通过推进城镇污水收集和处理系统提质增效、实施典型工业废水专项治理、建设溢流污水处理设施、开展城市水体生态修复等措施进一步提升长江流域四川区域城市水生态环境质量。

     

Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations

Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub‐products consumer market worldwide.     

农业土地利用变化及原因、效应分析

利用航空遥感影像结合野外调查方法 ,获取了研究区域 1 979年和 1 999年土地利用类型图 ,并分析了该时段土地利用变化情况。通过农户调查 ,探讨了土地利用变化的原因。分析表明 ,技术水平提高和投入增加是耕地产量提高的重要因素 ,提高土地经济收益是旱地土地利用结构变化的直接动力。     

Baseline Standardisation with Optimising Energy-System Models

Determining adequate baselinesis a major methodological problem whenquantifying emissions reductions achievedwith the project-based flexibilitymechanisms. Possible methodologies forbaseline setting may be classified intomulti-project and project-specificapproaches. While multi-project approachesprovide baselines for a series of typicalprojects within a certain geographicregion, a sector, or a load range,project-specific (orproject-by-project/single-project)approaches only cover one specific project.Project-by-project baseline approaches havebeen tested extensively within theActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilotphase; multi-project methodologies, on theother hand, have only rarely been applieddue to the (perceived) political andeconomic complexity of the issue, whichmakes the process of introducingstandardised baselines a very sensitivetask. In particular, there is a lack ofmulti-project baseline approaches takingadvantage of optimising computer modelswithin the electricity sector, even thoughother fields of research have made use ofsuch models quite successfully in the past.Experiences made in the PROBASE projectwith the calculation of standardised,aggregated multi-project baselines forJI/CDM projects using optimising energysystem models are illustrated in this paperfor South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia.Increased transparency and credibility ofstandardised approaches along withpotentially lower transaction costs areidentified as the main arguments for theiruse and further development. In addition,the text gives recommendations wheremodel-based baseline standardisation canpreferentially be applied.     

The Threat of Transformation: Quantifying the Vulnerability of Grasslands in South Africa

Abstract:  The ability to predict which areas of conservation importance are most vulnerable to transformation and to rank the relative damage that transforming land uses could cause to biodiversity are important components of an effective and realistic conservation planning process. We used the South African grassland biome as a case study to illustrate the assessment of vulnerability to land-use transformation through the construction of a "threat map." We identified the dominant transforming land uses and created suitability models based on area appropriateness for each. Land uses were scored according to their expected relative impacts on biodiversity, with a framework that included compositional, structural, and functional components. This information, once combined, resulted in a map that highlighted the areas most vulnerable to transformation in terms of the likelihood of their transformation and the impact on their biodiversity. We propose that such an analysis of the threat of transformation, in combination with species-representation approaches, will aid the integration of conservation planning theory and decision making. This approach can be applied at any scale and in any region with a robustness and accuracy dependent on data quality, resultant suitability models, and comprehension of how land uses affect an area's biodiversity.     

近40年华南地区旱涝变化特征

本文以华南地区１９５１～１９９０年４１个代表站的逐月降水资料序列，采用各时段的降水距平百分率和累积频率来分析近４０年来降水变化特征和旱涝年的变化趋势．并通过功率谱分析的方法找出该地区降水的主要变化周期。     

四川盆地农业自然环境质量评价

本文用一种综合、定量的方法，评价了四川盆地农业自然环境的现状质量，得到了较之传统的定性描述更为科学、直观的评价结果。评价结果显示，四川盆地农业自然环境质量只属中等水平，而不是通常所言“农业自然条件优越”；１３０个县中只有１５个的质量属良好，它们呈岛状分布；自然潜力质量与生态质量往往不匹配，因为人在开发利用自然资源的时候，往往造成生态质量的下降。     

制定山区经济发展战略的几点思考

根据四川是一个多山的大省、山区县占２１６个县（市、区）的１／２以上的特点，本文提出在制定山区经济、社会发展战略时，应从山区的资源特点、现状和面临的问题出发，同时对有关方面的问题进行了探讨．     

基于关键区海温的华南香蕉寒害长期预报模型探讨

根据华南地区10个代表站点1961-2005年的气候资料、海温资料、历史灾情记录对华南香蕉寒害长期预报模型进行了研究。结果表明,构造的华南香蕉寒害指数与前人研究和历史灾情记录吻合,可以代表华南香蕉寒害的强弱。通过相关分析,找出了影响华南冬季寒害的前期夏季海温关键区为（5°S~5°N,170°~120°W）、（50°~60°N,180°~140°W）、（20°~30°N,140°~110°W）、（30°~40°N,140°~150°E）、（40°~50°N,150°~170°E）,关键区海温对华南冬季寒害影响具有明确的物理意义。利用逐步回归分析,以关键区海温为自变量建立了华南香蕉寒害长期预报模型。其中1961-1990年的数据用于建模,1991-2004年数据用于模型检验。模型拟合准确率和预报准确率均高于88%,这表明此模型具有较高的精度。