FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

A GIS-based approach for assessing the regional conservation status of genetic diversity: an example from the southern Appalachians

Conserving genetic diversity requires an assessment of the distribution of genetic variants in relation to patterns of land use and environmental variation at a regional scale. This assessment requires a novel approach to integrating and analyzing the genetic and environmental data across spatial scales. To explore the integration of genetic data with other geospatial data sets, we developed a GIS-based approach for examining patterns of genetic diversity for several species of salamanders in southern Appalachians. The genetic data, from allozyme surveys in the genetics literature, were integrated into a GIS database along with related attributes including population identifications and spatial locations. Using existing geospatial data, we classified sample locations as being either protected from anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., National Parks, Wilderness Areas) or as unprotected (e.g., private lands, multiple-use lands in National Forests). We used multidimensional scaling of allelic frequencies and contributions of populations to interpopulation differences in allelic richness to determine which populations had genetic characteristics most different from other populations in the sample. Measures of genetic differentiation were integrated into the GIS database to facilitate spatial analysis and visualization of the indices in relation to land use. This approach was useful for both identification of populations with components of genetic variation that were not well represented at protected sites and for identifying areas of species distributions where more genetic sampling would be necessary to make informed management decisions. Our approach could be readily adapted for use by managers and geneticists working with other species and types of genetic markers.     

Porous FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08：Highly efficient photocatalysts for the degradation of Methylene Blue under visible-light illumination

Porous S-doped bismuth vanadate with an olive-like morphology and its supported iron oxide （y wt.% FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08, y = 0.06, 0.76, and 1.40） photocatalysts were fabricated using the dodecylamine-assisted alcohol-hydrothermal and incipient wetness impregnation methods, respectively. It is shown that the y wt.% FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08 photocatalysts contained a monoclinic scheetlite BiVO4 phase with a porous olive-like morphology, a surface area of 8.8-9.2 m^2/g, and a bandgap energy of 2.38-2.42 eV. There was co-presence of surface Bi^5＋, Bi^3＋, V^5＋, V^3＋, Fe^3＋, and Fe^2＋ species in y wt.% FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08. The 1.40 wt.% FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08 sample performed the best for Methylene Blue degradation under visible-light illumination. The photocatalytic mechanism was also discussed. We believe that the sulfur and FeOx co-doping, higher oxygen adspecies concentration, and lower baudgap energy were responsible for the excellent visible-light-driven catalytic activity of 1.40 wt.% FeOx/BiVO4-δS0.08.     

基于InVEST和MCR模型的南方山地丘陵区生态保护红线优化

优化生态保护红线,是顺应新时代多规融合趋势、推进国土空间高效管理与生态文明建设的重要举措。以南方山地丘陵区典型县奉新县为例,基于InVEST模型进行生境质量评价以识别生态源地及其缓冲区,采用水土流失敏感性修正基本阻力面,运用MCR模型构建奉新县生态安全格局,定量衡量与定性分析相结合对生态安全格局进行有效性评价,继而提出奉新县生态保护红线优化方案。结果表明：（1）生态源地及生态源地缓冲区面积分别为144.42 km²、354.01 km²,分别占研究区总面积的8.76%与21.47%,并识别出19个生态节点;（2）识别出关键生态廊道76 km,一般生态廊道315 km,与生态节点、生态源地、生态源地缓冲区共同构成研究区生态安全格局,面积共498.43 km²,占奉新县总面积的30.23%,集中分布于研究区西部山地丘陵区;（3）经有效性评价证实生态安全格局较生态保护红线更具生态优化意义;（4）划定生态保护红线补划区与生态保护红线储备区,共为生态保护红线调整优化预留了199.34 km²的高质量后备资源,形成研究区生态保护红线优化方案。研究成果可为南方山地丘陵区生态保护红线的评估优化提供科学参考。     

Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.     

Habitus Diversity of Ladybirds (Coleoptera,Coccinellidae) in the Steppe Zone of the Southern Urals and the South of Western Siberia

In the ladybird fauna of the steppe zone of the Southern Urals and the south of Western Siberia, five variants, three forms, and two habitus types of adult beetles are distinguished, and their hierarchy is established. The habitus diversity of ladybirds is revealed using a new method of describing each form in a polar system of coordinates whose center coincides with the center of gravity of the insect body. The system of ladybird habitus reflects the main directions of trophic specialization in the family.     

Enhanced adsorption of Methylene Blue from aqueous solution by chitosan-g-poly （acrylic acid）/vermiculite hydrogel composites

A series of chitosan-g-poly (acrylic acid)/vermiculite hydrogel composites were synthesized and used as adsorbents for the investigation of the e ect of process parameters such as vermiculite content, pH of dye solution, contact time, initial concentration of dye solution, temperature, ionic strength and concentration of surfactant sodium dodecyl sulfate on the removal of Methylene Blue (MB) from aqueous solution. The results showed that the adsorption capacity for dye increased with increasing pH, contact time and initial dye concentration, but decreased with increasing temperature, ionic strength and sodium dodecyl sulfate concentration in the present of the surfactant. The adsorption kinetics of MB onto the hydrogel composite followed pseudo second-order kinetics and the adsorption equilibrium data obeyed Langmuir isotherm. By introducing 10 wt.% vermiculite into chitosan-g-poly (acrylic acid) polymeric network, the obtaining hydrogel composite showed the highest adsorption capacity for MB, and then could be regarded as a potential adsorbent for cationic dye removal in a wastewater treatment process.     

南黄海秋季溶解无机碳的分布特征

根据2004年10月对南黄海4个断面29个站位表层、20 m层和50 m层水体中盐度、水温、pH值等参数的测定数据,分析了该季节溶解无机碳的组成和分布特征,探讨了影响其分布的主要因素.结果显示,调查期间南黄海水体中溶解无机碳及其各组成部分的水平分布差异显著;在垂直方向上,表层和20 m层各参数之间浓度总体上差异不大,但均与50 m层存在较大的差异.盐度、温度、生物活动和环流对各参数的分布具有重要影响,但对不同参数的影响程度不同.     

化学发光法检测空气中NO_2研究

以0.2%的三乙醇胺水溶液作为二氧化氮吸收液,将空气中二氧化氮转化为亚硝酸盐,进而测出空气中二氧化氮的浓度。通过实验发现,进样方式、载流速度、硫酸浓度、溴酸钾浓度和酸性铬蓝K的浓度对该体系的发光强度都有影响,确定了体系的最优条件,建立了标准曲线,亚硝酸根的浓度在6.0×10-9～1.0×10-5mol/L范围内分段有很好的线性关系,检出限为8.5×10-11mol/L。对1.0×10-8mol/L和1.0×10-6mol/L的亚硝酸根进行11次平行测定,相对标准偏差分别为1.8%和2.2%。用该方法对氧化剂实验室空气中的二氧化氮含量进行了检测并进行标准加入和回收实验,回收率在95%～104%之间,该法可用于大气环境中的NO2测定。     

重庆市“蓝天行动”的历史回顾与新一轮实施发展

通过对2005年以来重庆市“蓝天行动”实施的历史回顾,梳理和总结出重庆市环境空气污染治理监管的成果和经验,并提出了新一轮“蓝天行动”(2018—2022年)以控制细颗粒物PM_2.5污染和减少臭氧污染为重点,以降低氮氧化物浓度为突破点,坚持全民共治、源头防治为目标,制定了“四控两增”针对性的防治工程措施。截止2020年,重庆市优良天数达到333天,PM_2.5年均浓度达到33μg/m³,空气质量评价六项指标首次实现有监测记录以来全部达标,为历史最好水平。