Synthesis and spatial dynamics of socio-economic metabolism and land use change of Taipei Metropolitan Region

Ever since the concept of metabolism was extended from biological science by social scientists to analyze human systems, socio-economic metabolism has been extensively applied to explore resource consumption, asset accumulation, waste emissions, and complex processes of land use change in a socio-economic system. Current research in socio-economic metabolism and land use change has used accounting approaches for macroscopic comparisons of countries and regions. However, socio-economic metabolism has seldom been applied to the analysis of land use change. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of socio-economic metabolism and land use change, this study adopts a spatial system modeling method to develop a Socio-Economic Metabolism and Land Use Change (SEMLUC) model for the Taipei Metropolitan Region. The simulation results illustrate that the Taipei Metropolitan Region is highly dependent on inflows of non-renewable energy and exhibits a spatial hierarchy of non-renewable energy consumption centering on Taipei's Main station. Additionally, urban assets provide feedback to natural and agricultural systems to extract additional resource inflows which, driven by the maximum power principle, accelerate the convergence of energy flows toward urban assets. Accumulating urban assets also facilitates inflows of non-renewable material to nearby cells thereby enhancing land use conversion to urban areas. This work also demonstrates the capability of ArcGIS software in simulating socio-economic metabolism and land use change in an urban system.     

基于多源空间数据挖掘的区域生态基础设施识别模式研究

生态基础设施（EI）是区域生态安全的基本保障和区域环境承载的刚性底限。本文以此概念为切入点。结合以GIS、RS为代表的空间信息技术建构了区域生态基础设施空间结构识别的基本方法与技术路线。在具体的研究内容中，本文首先介绍了EI基本概念及其空间表现形式，并集中讨论了基本生态基础设施元素的空间结构识别模型与空间信息提取方法；在此基础上，应用多源空间数据挖掘原理构造了区域生态安全空间结构与区域IE结构的信息识别方法；结合区域基本的生态安全与IE元素空间结构特征，本文最后进行了广州市萝岗区实例研究。本研究结果表明利用空间信息技术进行区域IE空间结构识别是具有一定科学性的，高效可行的。     

Incentives and barriers to environmental inequality mobilization: A case-study analysis in Wallonia,Belgium

Environmental inequality scholarship has sought to shed light on the unequal environmental conditions borne by poor people and racial minorities, and to challenge public policies. Most studies are concerned either with assessing the unequal distribution of environmental amenities and disamenities or with exploring the theoretical foundations of environmental justice movements.We propose an original approach to environmental inequality, focused not only on the unequal distribution of environmental burdens but also on two other types of factors: the capacity to mobilize and engage in community organizations on the one hand and the spatial dimension of environmental inequalities on the other.The evidence for this study is from an opinion survey carried out in 2012 with 1298 individuals. We use a two-step cluster analysis method to compute a classification system based on four categories of variables: socio-economic, environmental, spatial, and social capital.     

Trends in Vegetation Degradation in Relation to Land Tenure, Rainfall, and Population Changes in Peddie District, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation are examined in relation to land tenure, population increase, and rainfall variation in a part of Peddie district, Eastern Cape. Sequential aerial photographs between 1938 and 1988 are analyzed to determine trends in vegetation and population change in three different land-tenure units. The areal extent at each date of four distinct vegetation categories is determined using PC ARC/INFO GIS. Long-term annual rainfall trends for the area are analyzed and juxtaposed with vegetation changes. Extensive ground-truthing exercises are carried out to verify the present condition of vegetation condition in terms of cover and species composition. Differences in land-tenure systems are discerned as the dominant factor controlling variations in vegetation degradation. The study also reveals that neither population changes nor rainfall variations can explain the observed trends in vegetation degradation. Earlier injudicious land-use practices, sustained since the turn of the last century, may provide plausible explanations for the trends and present status of vegetation degradation in the area.     

Enhancing feasibility: Incorporating a socio-ecological systems framework into restoration planning

Forest restoration is the counterforce to deforestation. In many parts of the world it mitigates forest loss and degradation, but success rates vary. Socio-political variables are important predictors of effectiveness of restoration activities, indicating that restoration strategies need to be locally adapted. Yet, contextual assessments of the biophysical, social and political characteristics of forest restoration are rare. Here, we integrate a social-ecological systems framework with systematic decision-making to inform forest restoration planning. We illustrate this approach through a prioritization analysis in a community-based forest restoration context in Paser District, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. We compare the solutions of our integrated framework with those identified on the basis of biophysical criteria alone. We discover that incorporating a socio-political context alters the selection of priority areas. While the social feasibility and political permissibility can be enhanced, ecological benefits are likely to be reduced and/or opportunity costs of alternative land uses are to be increased. Our conceptual framework allows the appraisal of potential trade-offs between social and ecological outcomes of alternative options, and has the potential to evaluate the efficiency of existing policies. Empirical testing in a range of contexts is required to ensure broad applicability and transferability of our conceptual framework.     

RS与GIS支持下的南京市景观格局动态变化研究

利用1986、1994、2000年的TM图像和2000年的土地利用现状图,运用GIS和核心景观指数研究南京市自1986年以来景观格局的动态演变规律。结果表明：南京市在快速城市化的过程中,城市景观结构的变化主要表现为耕地、绿地、水体和未利用地等自然或半自然景观向城市、农村居民地、工矿用地以及交通用地等人文景观转变;景观的多样性增加,斑块的平均面积增大,分离度、破碎度和孔隙度减小,城市的开发趋向有序化、规模化;但由于人类活动作用方式或作用程度的不同,不同的景观类型在同一时间段,或者同一景观类型在不同的时间内空间格局的转变模式不同,1986~1994年城市扩展的速度很快,开发比较混乱,城市、农村居民地和交通用地等人文景观的面积大幅增加,耕地、绿地和未利用地的面积大量减少,斑块分布不均匀,空隙度增加,1994~2000年城市扩展的速度减慢,开发趋向有序化,除耕地外,其他景观类型的分离度、破碎度和孔隙度减小,空间分布趋向均匀。     

A novel two-dimensional model for colloid transport in physically and geochemically heterogeneous porous media

A two-dimensional model for colloid transport in geochemically and physically heterogeneous porous media is presented. The model considers patchwise geochemical heterogeneity, which is suitable to describe the chemical variability of many surficial aquifers with ferric oxyhydroxide-coated porous matrix, as well as spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, which results in heterogeneous flow field. The model is comprised of a transient fluid flow equation, a transient colloid transport equation, and an equation for the dynamics of colloid deposition and release. Numerical simulations were carried out with the model to investigate the colloid transport behavior in layered and randomly heterogeneous porous media. Results demonstrate that physical and geochemical heterogeneities markedly affect the colloid transport behavior. Layered physical or geochemical heterogeneity can result in distinct preferential flow paths of colloidal particles. Furthermore, the combined effect of layered physical and geochemical heterogeneity may result in enhanced or reduced preferential flow of colloids. Random distribution of physical heterogeneity (hydraulic conductivity) results in a random flow field and an irregularly distributed colloid concentration profile in the porous medium. Contrary to random physical heterogeneity, the effect of random patchwise geochemical heterogeneity on colloid transport behavior is not significant. It is mostly the mean value of geochemical heterogeneity rather than its distribution that governs the colloid transport behavior.     

Coastal dynamics and adaptation to uncertain sea level rise: Optimal portfolios for salt marsh migration

The sustainability of dynamic natural systems often depends on their capacity to adapt to uncertain climate-related changes, where different management options may be combined to facilitate this adaptation. Salt marshes exemplify such a system. Marsh sustainability under rapid sea level rise requires the preservation of transgression zones - undeveloped uplands onto which marshes migrate. Whether these uplands eventually become marsh depends on uncertain sea level rise and natural dynamics that determine migration onto different land types. Under conditions such as these, systematically diversified management actions generally outperform ad hoc or non-diversified alternatives. This paper develops the first adaptation portfolio model designed to optimize the benefits of a migrating coastal system. Results are illustrated using a case study of marsh conservation in Virginia, USA. Results suggest that models of this type can enhance adaptation benefits beyond those available through current approaches.     

The effect of outdoor air pollutants and greenness on allergic rhinitis incidence rates: a cross-sectional study in Seoul,Korea

Air pollution poses a serious threat to human health in Asia. This study analyzes the association of air pollutants and greenness with incidence rates of allergic rhinitis in Seoul at the administrative district level to gain insight into district-level urban policies to improve public health. A spatial regression model is constructed to investigate the correlation between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and five air pollutants measured at 128 air pollution monitoring stations around Seoul: sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO). The allergic rhinitis incidence data are derived from the National Health Insurance Service’s database that includes the number of allergic rhinitis-related clinic visits by the patients over 20 years of age and living in Seoul. A kriging geostatistical interpolation was used to estimate average air pollution level of 423 administrative districts. To assess pollen concentrations that can affect allergic rhinitis, the average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is measured based on the urban greenness. The model, controlling for built environment and socio-economic attributes, identifies the possibility of a weak association between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and carbon monoxide levels. The NDVI value is negatively correlated with allergic rhinitis incidence rates, implying a complicated aspect in relation to the effect of urban greenness.     

Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?

Species distribution models (SDMs) based on statistical relationships between occurrence data and underlying environmental conditions are increasingly used to predict spatial patterns of biological invasions and prioritize locations for early detection and control of invasion outbreaks. However, invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) face special challenges because (i) they typically violate SDM's assumption that the organism is in equilibrium with its environment, and (ii) species absence data are often unavailable or believed to be too difficult to interpret. This often leads researchers to generate pseudo-absences for model training or utilize presence-only methods, and to confuse the distinction between predictions of potential vs. actual distribution. We examined the hypothesis that true-absence data, when accompanied by dispersal constraints, improve prediction accuracy and ecological understanding of iSDMs that aim to predict the actual distribution of biological invasions. We evaluated the impact of presence-only, true-absence and pseudo-absence data on model accuracy using an extensive dataset on the distribution of the invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in California. Two traditional presence/absence models (generalized linear model and classification trees) and two alternative presence-only models (ecological niche factor analysis and maximum entropy) were developed based on 890 field plots of pathogen occurrence and several climatic, topographic, host vegetation and dispersal variables. The effects of all three possible types of occurrence data on model performance were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and omission/commission error rates. Results show that prediction of actual distribution was less accurate when we ignored true-absences and dispersal constraints. Presence-only models and models without dispersal information tended to over-predict the actual range of invasions. Models based on pseudo-absence data exhibited similar accuracies as presence-only models but produced spatially less feasible predictions. We suggest that true-absence data are a critical ingredient not only for accurate calibration but also for ecologically meaningful assessment of iSDMs that focus on predictions of actual distributions.