Coastal dynamics and adaptation to uncertain sea level rise: Optimal portfolios for salt marsh migration

The sustainability of dynamic natural systems often depends on their capacity to adapt to uncertain climate-related changes, where different management options may be combined to facilitate this adaptation. Salt marshes exemplify such a system. Marsh sustainability under rapid sea level rise requires the preservation of transgression zones - undeveloped uplands onto which marshes migrate. Whether these uplands eventually become marsh depends on uncertain sea level rise and natural dynamics that determine migration onto different land types. Under conditions such as these, systematically diversified management actions generally outperform ad hoc or non-diversified alternatives. This paper develops the first adaptation portfolio model designed to optimize the benefits of a migrating coastal system. Results are illustrated using a case study of marsh conservation in Virginia, USA. Results suggest that models of this type can enhance adaptation benefits beyond those available through current approaches.     

The effect of outdoor air pollutants and greenness on allergic rhinitis incidence rates: a cross-sectional study in Seoul,Korea

Air pollution poses a serious threat to human health in Asia. This study analyzes the association of air pollutants and greenness with incidence rates of allergic rhinitis in Seoul at the administrative district level to gain insight into district-level urban policies to improve public health. A spatial regression model is constructed to investigate the correlation between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and five air pollutants measured at 128 air pollution monitoring stations around Seoul: sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO). The allergic rhinitis incidence data are derived from the National Health Insurance Service’s database that includes the number of allergic rhinitis-related clinic visits by the patients over 20 years of age and living in Seoul. A kriging geostatistical interpolation was used to estimate average air pollution level of 423 administrative districts. To assess pollen concentrations that can affect allergic rhinitis, the average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is measured based on the urban greenness. The model, controlling for built environment and socio-economic attributes, identifies the possibility of a weak association between allergic rhinitis incidence rates and carbon monoxide levels. The NDVI value is negatively correlated with allergic rhinitis incidence rates, implying a complicated aspect in relation to the effect of urban greenness.     

Abolition of set-aside schemes, associated impacts on habitat structure and modelling of potential effects of cross-farm regulation

In intensively farmed regions, habitat fragmentation represents a major pressure on biodiversity. Depending on its spatial setting, set-aside land can increase size and connectivity of habitats and thus counteract fragmentation. In 2008, the EU-wide set-aside obligation was suspended and a large proportion of set-aside land was re-cultivated. With Denmark as case we apply an indicator to measure the effect of set-aside land on spatial structure of semi-natural habitats in term of habitat size and connectivity. Furthermore, we model effects of a hypothetical spatial regulation, where set-aside land with the greatest benefit for habitat structure is retained as uncultivated, while set-aside land with the least effect is re-cultivated. The model is applied to individual farms and to farm agglomerations of increasing sizes, enabling us to explore potential effects of cross-farm regulation. The novelty of our approach is the application of observed land-uses changes for modelling a hypothetical regulation working on a range of spatial scales. Results show that after abolition of set-aside schemes the effect of set-aside land on habitat structure was more than halved. Modelled spatial regulation considerably reduces impacts. Effects increase with increasing size of farm agglomerations. However, marginal benefits become negligible at agglomeration sizes over 36 km².     

Allometric scaling of resource acquisition by ruminants in dynamic and heterogeneous environments

We present a mechanistic formulation of the intake response of ruminants to vegetation biomass based solely on physiological and morphological parameters that scale allometrically with the animal's body mass. The model is applied to describe herbivore-vegetation interactions in dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes with low quality but abundant “tall grass” and high quality but sparsely available “short grass”, under two conditions: “uncoupled” (such that the effect of food intake on vegetation biomass can be neglected), or “coupled” (such that the vegetation biomass is determined by herbivore feeding). The results show that under uncoupled conditions, the minimum acceptance (proportion of vegetation consumed by the herbivore) at which the herbivore can leave its current patch without reducing its intake rate is when it has depleted the current patch by the energetic cost required to travel to another patch. The maximum acceptance at which the herbivore should leave its patch is when it has depleted the current patch by the cumulative energetic cost of traveling, handling, cropping, and digesting. Under coupled conditions, the optimal acceptance equals half the relative growth rate of the vegetation. Analytical solutions are obtained for equilibrium values for utilization of the vegetation, and for the densities of vegetation and ruminants, expressed in physiological and morphological herbivore parameters.     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

Using an individual-based model to quantify scale transition in demographic rate functions: Deaths in a coral reef fish

Scientifically informed population management requires quantitatively accurate demographic rate functions that apply at the spatial scale at which populations are actually managed, but practical constraints confine most field measurements of such functions to small study plots. This paper employs an individual-based population growth model to extrapolate the death rate function in a well-studied coral reef fish, the bridled goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, from the scale of coral reef “cells” at which it was measured to the larger scale of an entire coral reef. Density dependence in the whole-reef function actually proves stronger than in the local function because high goby density occasionally arises in local patches with few refuges from predators, producing very high mortality there. This IBM-based approach extends the reach of scale transition theory by examining considerably more realistic models than standard analytical methods can presently handle.     

盐碱草原土壤特性及生物量空间异质性研究

土壤盐分是土壤特性中最活跃和复杂的一部分。受土壤性质、气象、地形、地下水文及长期地球化学过程等自然条件和耕作、灌溉等人类活动因子的影响,土壤水分、盐分的变异状态在一定程度上反映了土壤各层的盐渍化程度和状态。而土壤盐分与水分、土壤物理性质等有十分密切的联系,因此,运用地统计学研究采用振动深松集成技术改良盐碱化草原前后土壤水分、盐分等特性的空间变异规律,以地理信息系统ArcGIS为平台,建立土壤水分、盐分等图形数据和属性数据相结合的信息数据库,建立其空间分异模型和空间分布图,直观的表现各特性的空间变异规律。结果表明,采用振动深松集成技术后土壤盐分含量在空间上有递减,平均ρ（土壤盐）由5.60g.L-1下降到3.73 g.L-1;土壤容重、土壤硬度分别降低13%和24%,利于牧草根系生长,生物量变异结果显示,改良前后的草层高度和产量空间分布逐渐达到了均一化,牧草产量达到了2738.1 kg.hm-2,实现了植被全覆盖,盐碱化草原得到了恢复。     

Effects of Changing Forest and Impervious Land Covers on Discharge Characteristics of Watersheds

Effects of changing patterns of forest and impervious land covers on hydrologic regimes of watersheds were evaluated for urban and rural areas of the lower Cedar River drainage near Seattle, Washington. Land cover characterizations were used in a spatially explicit hydrology model to assess effects of land covers on watershed hydrology during presettlement conditions (full forest cover), 1991 and 1998. For the presettlement to 1991 period, urban watersheds showed decreases in forest covers (range 63% to 83%) and increases in impervious surfaces (range 43% to 71%). Rural watersheds showed similar patterns but smaller changes, with forest covers decreasing (range 28% to 34%) and impervious surfaces increasing (range 8% to 15%). For the 1991 and 1998 period, changes in forest covers for urban and rural watershed were <24%, with losses in some watersheds and regeneration in others. Impervious surfaces continued to increase, but increases were larger in rural (range 38% to 60%) than in urban watersheds (range 4% to 27%). Flood-frequency curves indicated that discharge rates (m sec^–1) for all watersheds were higher in 1991 and 1998 than historical and suggested that chances for floods increase because of changing land covers. The largest increases in discharge rates were in urban watersheds, with rates for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals being more than two times greater than the rate during historical conditions. Changes in flow regimes were indicated by presettlement discharge levels of less frequent recurrence intervals (10-year and 25-year) occurring in posturbanization times (1991 and 1998) during more frequent intervals (2-year and 10-year). Normalized flows (m yr^–1) of watersheds for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals indicate how flow regimes in 1991 and 1998 can change as functions of different areas of land covers. During 1991 and 1998, abrupt increases in flows occurred when forest covers were low (range 17% to 37%) and impervious surfaces were >46%. In contrast, the lowest flows occurred when forest covers were most extensive (range 59% to 81%) and impervious surfaces were <23%. We conclude that our use of spatial characterizations of impervious surfaces and forested covers in a spatially explicit hydrology model provides a robust approach for revealing how variations in different types and spatial distributions of land covers can affect flood regimes and flows of different watersheds.     

Developing a spatial framework of common ecological regions for the conterminous United States

In 1996, nine federal agencies with mandates to inventory and manage the nation's land, water, and biological resources signed a memorandum of understanding entitled “Developing a Spatial Framework of Ecological Units of The United States.” This spatial framework is the basis for interagency coordination and collaboration in the development of ecosystem management strategies. One of the objectives in this memorandum is the development of a map of common ecological regions for the conterminous United States. The regions defined in the spatial framework will be areas within which biotic, abiotic, terrestrial, and aquatic capacities and potentials are similar. The agencies agreed to begin by exploring areas of agreement and disagreement in three federal natural-resource spatial frameworks—Major Land Resource Areas of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Hierarchy of Ecological Units of the USDA Forest Service, and Level III Ecoregions of the US Environmental Protection Agency. The explicit intention is that the framework will foster an ecological understanding of the landscape, rather than an understanding based on a single resource, single discipline, or single agency perspective. This paper describes the origin, capabilities, and limitations of three major federal agency frameworks and suggests why a common ecological framework is desirable. The scientific and programmatic benefits of common ecological regions are described, and a proposed process for development of the common framework is presented.