社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识,有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素,不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节,还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法,比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明,公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度,信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播,其中宜春公众的信任度较高;公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱,尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小;公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关,主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响,即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异,风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

Outlier identification and visualization for Pb concentrations in urban soils and its implications for identification of potential contaminated land

Outliers in urban soil geochemical databases may imply potential contaminated land. Different methodologies which can be easily implemented for the identification of global and spatial outliers were applied for Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland. Due to its strongly skewed probability feature, a Box–Cox transformation was performed prior to further analyses. The graphic methods of histogram and box-and-whisker plot were effective in identification of global outliers at the original scale of the dataset. Spatial outliers could be identified by a local indicator of spatial association of local Moran's I, cross-validation of kriging, and a geographically weighted regression. The spatial locations of outliers were visualised using a geographical information system. Different methods showed generally consistent results, but differences existed. It is suggested that outliers identified by statistical methods should be confirmed and justified using scientific knowledge before they are properly dealt with.     

A survey on the public perception of CCS in France

An awareness and opinion survey on carbon capture and storage (CCS) was conducted on a representative sample of French residents aged 15 years and above. About 6% of respondents were able to provide a satisfactory definition of the technology. The key question about ‘approval of or opposition to’ the use of CCS in France was asked twice, first after presenting the technology, then after explaining its potential adverse consequences. The approval rates, which were 59% and 38%, respectively, show that there is no a priori rejection of the technology. The sample was split in two to test for a semantic effect: half of the questionnaires used “Stockage” (English: storage), the other half “Sequestration”. Manipulating the vocabulary had no statistically significant effect on approval rates. Stockage is more meaningful, but does not convey the idea of permanent monitoring.     

Lay concepts on CCS deployment in Switzerland based on qualitative interviews

Laypeople's acceptance and perception of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) can have an influence on its political feasibility. It is important, therefore, to study how laypeople perceive CCS and which cognitions they hold with respect to this technique. We conducted in-depth interviews with laypeople (N = 16) to explore their mental concepts of CCS. Little knowledge about CCS was detected among laypeople. We also found that laypeople fear that a deployment of CCS could create incentives that would hinder a sustainable development of the energy economy. A misunderstanding of the concepts of hydro- and geostatic pressure, as well as a lack of knowledge about the physical–chemical properties of carbon dioxide seemed to trigger fundamental rejection of CCS among some laypeople. This qualitative study identifies concepts that underlie CCS perception, and these should be objects of future studies. We provide some suggestions for risk management and communication about CCS.     

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

Spatial distribution of perfluoroalkyl acids in the Pearl River of Southern China

An intensive campaign was conducted in September 2012 to collect surface water samples along the tributaries of the Pearl River in southern China. Thirteen perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), including perfluorocarboxylates (PFCAs, C4–C11) and perfluorosulfonates (PFSAs, C4, C6–C8, and C10), were determined using high-performance liquid chromatography/negative electrospray ionization–tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC/(-)ESI–MS/MS). The concentrations of total PFAAs (ΣPFAAs) ranged from 3.0 to 52 ng L⁻¹, with an average of 19 ± 12 ng L⁻¹. The highest concentrations of ΣPFAAs were detected in the surface water of the Dong Jiang tributary (17–52 ng L⁻¹), followed by the main stream (13–26 ng L⁻¹) and the Sha Wan stream (3.0–4.5 ng L⁻¹). Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS), and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) were the three most abundant PFAAs and on average accounted for 20%, 24%, and 19% of ΣPFAAs, respectively. PFBS was the most abundant PFAA in the Dong Jiang tributary, and PFOA was the highest PFAA in the samples from the main stream of the Pearl River. A correlation was found between PFBS and PFOA, which suggests that both of these PFAAs originate from common source(s) in the region. Nevertheless, the slope of PFBS/PFOA was different in the different tributaries sampled, which indicates a spatial difference in the source profiles of the PFAAs.     

Importance of public information and perception for managing recreational activities in the Peel-Harvey estuary, Western Australia

Surveys of water recreational activities were conducted in the Peel-Harvey estuary. Channels used by recreationists to gain information about water quality, the perception of water quality and resulting behaviour were investigated. This study showed that personal perception, local knowledge and history, absence of warnings and residency were major factors contributing to risk perception and behaviour in this recreational community. Management strategies should take this information into account to achieve maximal outcomes.     

Scenario-visualization for the assessment of perceived green space qualities at the urban-rural fringe

The provision of green space is increasingly being perceived as an important factor for quality of life. However, green spaces often face high developmental pressure. The main objective of this study is to investigate a prospective approach to green space planning by combining three-dimensional (3D) visualization of green space scenarios and survey techniques to facilitate improved participation of the public. Aside from the ‘Status quo’, scenarios ‘Agriculture’, ‘Recreation’, ‘Nature conservation’ and ‘Wind turbines’ are visualized in three dimensions. In order to test responses, a survey was conducted both in print format and on the Internet. Overall, 49 different visualizations that belong to one of the scenarios were available in the survey and were rated according to the perceived esthetic, recreational and ecological values.The highest rated scenes include vegetation elements such as meadows with orchards, single trees, shrubs or forest. The least attractive scenes are those where buildings are highly dominant or where there are no vegetation elements.Based on the ratings for the individual images and on the corresponding scenarios, our study shows that there is high potential for improving the existing landscape. All suggested changes are either rated about equal to or considerably higher than the status quo, with the scenario ‘Nature conservation’ receiving the highest scores.     

Variability of soil-water quality due to Tsunami-2004 in the coastal belt of Nagapattinam district, Tamilnadu

In this study, the Tsunami-caused deterioration of soil and groundwater quality in the agricultural fields of coastal Nagapattinam district of Tamilnadu state in India is presented by analyzing their salinity and sodicity parameters. To accomplish this, three sets of soil samples up to a depth of 30cm from the land surface were collected for the first six months of the year 2005 from 28 locations and the ground water samples were monitored from seven existing dug wells and hand pumps covering the study region at intervals of 3 months. The EC and pH values of both the soil and ground water samples were estimated and the spatial and temporal variability mappings of these parameters were performed using the geostatistical analysis module of ArcGIS((R)). It was observed that the spherical semivariogram fitted well with the data set of both EC and pH and the generated kriged maps explained the spatial and temporal variability under different ranges of EC and pH values. Further, the recorded EC and pH data of soil and ground water during pre-Tsunami periods were compared with the collected data and generated variability soil maps of EC and pH of the post-Tsunami period. It was revealed from this analysis that the soil quality six months after the Tsunami was nearing the pre-Tsunami scenario (EC< 1.5dSm(-1); pH<8), whereas the quality of ground water remained highly saline and unfit for irrigation and drinking. These observations were compared with the ground scenarios of the study region and possible causes for such changes and the remedial measures for taking up regular agricultural practices are also discussed.     

Attitudes and Perceptions about Ecological Resources and Hazards of People Living Aroung the Savannah River Site

Although considerable attention is devoted to environmental monitoring and assessment with respect to both pollutants and the status of particular plant or animal populations, less attention is devoted to assessing people's attitudes about the relative importance of ecological resources. In this paper we examine the attitudes and perceptions about ecological resources of people living around the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS), in South Carolina. Our overall hypothesis is that people who are directly affected by the possible outcomes and consequences of a particular hazard (i.e., those people employed at SRS) will undervalue the risks and overvalue the potential benefits from future land uses that favor continued site activity, compared to people who live near but are not employed at SRS. We interviewed 286 people attending the Aiken Trials horse show on 14 March 1997. There were few gender differences, although men hunted and fished more than women, women ranked three environmental concerns as more severe than did men, and women were more concerned about the effect of SRS on property values. Maintenance of SRS as a National Environmental Research Park ranked first as a future land use; nuclear production ranked second, followed by hunting and hiking. Only residential development ranked very low as a future land use. There were many differences as a function of employment history at SRS: 1) people who work at SRS think that the federal government should spend funds to clean up all nuclear facilities, and they think less money should be spent on other environmental problems than did non-employees, 2) people who work at SRS ranked continued current uses of SRS higher than did people who never worked at SRS, and 3) people who work at SRS are less concerned about the storage of nuclear material or accidents at the site than are people who never worked at the site.