基于空间场效应的陕西入境旅游流空间转移特征研究

选取不同时间断面的陕西与中国五大典型旅游区入境旅游流相互转移的有关数据和利用空间场效应理论对陕西入境旅游流空间场进行场能、位势及地域结构分析,研究其空间聚集效应、扩散效应和场效应交互作用影响下的旅游流时空转移规律及空间分布特征。结果表明,陕西入境旅游流空间场集聚效应强于扩散效应,且呈增强趋势;陕西与东部旅游区转移量大,与西部旅游区转移概率大,因此东部地区仍是陕西跨区域旅游合作的重点地域,而西部地区则是陕西加强旅游合作与建设的重要地区。     

Tree-ring stable isotopes and historical perspectives on pollution - An overview

Hydrogen (δ²H), carbon (δ¹³C), oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes of tree rings growing in field conditions can be indicative of past pollution effects. The characteristic δ¹³C trend is a positive shift generally explained by invoking closure of stomata, but experimental studies suggest that increased rates of carboxylation could also generate such trends. In many cases the δ¹⁸O and δ²H values decrease in trees exposed to pollution and exhibit inverse coinciding long-term trends with δ¹³C values. However, some trees exposed to diffuse pollution and experimental conditions can show an increase or no δ¹⁸O change even if δ¹³C values increase. These diverse responses depend on how stress conditions modify physiological functions such as stomatal conductance, carboxylation, respiration, and perhaps water assimilation by the root system. Recent studies suggest that δ¹⁵N changes in trees can be caused by soil acidification and accumulation of anthropogenic emissions with isotopic signals deviating from natural N.     

充填管道系统失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)及失效影响模糊评估

根据金川矿区充填管道系统的运行情况,结合充填实践经验,建立了充填管道系统的失效模式与影响分析法(FMEA)分析表,得出系统存在10种失效模式。针对FMEA分析表中失效影响存在较大模糊性而难以有效估计的特点,引入模糊评估方法来进行分析。通过该矿区充填管道系统各失效模式产生失效影响的模糊评估,得到不同失效模式对系统可靠性影响的排序结果。结果表明:该方法的评估结果与实际情况比较吻合;可以使分析定量化,有助于工程人员充分利用系统模糊信息;该方法也能用于其他系统失效模式影响的模糊评估。     

Nutrient Dynamics in Jiaozhou Bay

Three cruises were carried out in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) in the neap tide in October 2002 (fall) and in both neap and spring tides in May 2003 (spring) to understand the relative importance of external nutrient inputs versus physical transport and internal biogeochemical processes. Nutrients (, , , , silicic acid, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP)) were measured. The concentrations of nutrients were higher in the northern part than in the southern part. High concentrations of and DON in JZB demonstrated the anthropogenic input. Ambient nutrient ratios indicated that the potential limiting nutrients for phytoplankton growth were silicon, and then phosphorus. Nutrients showed an obvious tidal effect with low values at flood tide and high values at ebb tide. Nutrient elements were transported into JZB in the north and output in the south (i.e., into the Yellow Sea), which varied with season, tidal cycle and investigation sites. Water exchange between JZB and the Yellow Sea exports , and DON out of JZB, while it inputs , silicic acid and DOP into JZB. Nutrient budgets demonstrate that riverine input and wastewater discharge are major sources of nutrients, while residual flow is of minor importance in JZB ecosystem. JZB is a sink for the nutrient elements we studied except for DON. Stoichiometric calculations demonstrate that JZB is a net autotrophic system.     

Ambient Air Pollution and Daily Pediatric Hospitalizations for Asthma (5 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope A series of severe air pollution episodes in Europe and North America prior to 1960 have focused scientific and regulatory attention on the adverse effects of air pollution on human health. As a consequence of significant reductions in ambient air pollution levels in the intervening years, scientists and public health officials have become more concerned with the potential health effects of exposure to routine concentrations of air pollution. Several recent time series studies conducted world-wide have found relatively low levels of air pollutants that are below national standards were associated with adverse effects on mortality and morbidity. This study examined the effects of ambient air pollution indicators on the daily rate of pediatric hospital admissions for asthma in the Oklahoma City Metropolitan area from 2001-2003. Results: Negative binomial regression analysis revealed significant relationships between the total number of hospitalizations per day and the one-hour maximum NO2 level, the proportion of susceptible children < 5 years old, and the ratio of temperature to humidity. Discussion: This study of the total number of children aged ≤ 14 years old experiencing hospitalizations on a daily basis in the Oklahoma City area from 2001-2003 underscores factors other than ambient air pollution, especially when concentrations are low, affect hospitalizations for pediatric asthma. For example, information related to indoor air quality, health care, family history, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and other irritants are not obtainable. Yet, those factors are risk drivers for asthma. Similarly, health privacy requirements prevented obtaining data on physiological factors specific to each child such as differentials in airways functional capacity or other impairments influenced asthma exacerbation. This makes calculating relative risk inappropriate. Conclusions: Although ambient air pollution concentrations and meteorological conditions influence pediatric asthma hospitalizations, they are not the major predictors in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. This is consistent with other research that finds limited effects associated with low levels for concentrations of the criteria pollutants.     

Environmental and Distributional Impacts of Conservation Targeting Strategies

Resource purchasing funds have become a major tool for environmental protection and resource conservation. These funds use various strategies to target resources for conservation, the choice of which may lead to striking differences in environmental performance. This paper develops an analytical framework to analyze the impact of alternative targeting strategies on different interest groups, including consumers, producers, labor, and environmentalists. We show that ignoring the output price effect of purchasing funds reduces environmental gain and in some cases may make a purchasing fund counterproductive, and we argue that the optimal design of targeting criteria must consider the price feedback effect.     

工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响

本文从生产要素投入端将环境污染引至索洛增长模型,理论考察工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响机制,基于1999—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,以SO_2排放量作为环境污染水平的代理变量,采用面板平滑迁移回归(PSTR)模型检验全国及分区域工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响效应及区域差异性。研究结果表明:随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业产出及污染排放均呈现不断上升的趋势,但由于资本边际收益递减规律使得这种增长趋势逐渐减弱,最终导致经济增长和环境污染增长趋于稳态,当污染排放增长率降低为负时,经济增长对环境污染的影响作用由正向转变为负向。实证表明我国工业经济结构、经济增长与SO_2排放具有显著的产出水平门槛效应,随着经济产出水平由低区制平滑的过渡到高区制,经济增长对SO_2排放的影响由正向促进作用转变为负向减排效应,但工业经济结构对SO_2排放呈现逐渐增强正向促进作用,可见工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放具有显著的非线性影响。此外,研究发现工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放的非线性影响存在显著的区域差异性,东部地区经济增长与SO_2排放呈现显著的倒"U"型曲线关系,而在中西部地区表现出逐渐增强的促进作用,中部地区的工业经济结构对SO_2排放的促进作用最大,西部其次,东部最弱,研究还表明,减排技术水平以及环境治理投资增加对SO_2污染排放具有遏制作用,能源投资的增加加速了SO_2的排放。在未来经济发展中,应摒弃传统"高投入、高消耗"的工业化模式,政府应实施创新管理,完善环境保护立法,鼓励企业发展环境污染治理方面的技术,避免以环境容量过渡为代价,追求工业经济高质量、可持续发展模式。     

城市绿化屋顶的微气候调节与径流削减效应研究

快速城市化与气候变化双重作用下,热岛效应与城市内涝成为最为突出的城市环境问题。绿化屋顶因能有效利用闲置屋面添緑、帮助城市缓解热岛和暴雨径流而受到关注。以往研究较多探讨单种气象条件下、单个小面积实验型绿化屋面的气候水文调节功能,本研究基于夏秋两季的微气候水文观测数据,定量分析不同气象条件下5种典型绿化屋顶的降温和径流削减效应。首先选择晴朗、多云、降雨3种典型夏日天气条件,分析草坪、裸土、菜地、小面积花园、大面积花园5种类型绿化屋顶与对照光屋顶之间的温度差日变化规律,探讨绿化屋顶热效应强度及时空特征;其次,选择暴雨、大雨、中雨及小雨4次典型降雨,分析大面积草坪与花园型绿化屋顶上的降雨-滞蓄过程及径流削减率。研究结果表明:绿化屋顶降温与升温效应并存,晴朗无风天气条件下,距离屋面10 cm和150 cm两个高度上,绿化屋顶最高可降低气温5.3℃和2.5℃,多云及降雨天气条件下降温强度下降,升温时段延长;白天草坪与裸土上的大气温度高于对照光屋顶,其它绿化屋顶的温度低于对照屋顶;夜间5个绿化屋顶的大气温度均低于对照屋顶,且降温效应按照大面积花园、草坪、小面积花园、裸土、菜地的顺序递减。绿化屋顶径流削减效益与绿化类型及降雨强度密切相关,花园型绿化对一次典型暴雨、大雨、中雨、小雨的径流削减率分别为50.8%、78%、100%、100%,简易型绿化的4次径流削减率分别为24.3%,58.6%,98.2%和100%。研究结果可为同气候区其他城市绿化屋顶环境设计及管理提供一定参考价值。     

Media Use and Public Perceptions of Global Warming in India

Media plays a vital role in informing the public about environmental threats. Although climate change is a global problem, developing countries such as India are often more vulnerable to the impacts due to poverty, illiteracy, and low public awareness. Using data from a nationally representative survey in India, this paper explores the relationships between media use, issue attention, and trust in informational sources on one hand and science-based climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support on the other. Results suggest that the Indian media, through consistent and accurate coverage of global warming using trusted sources, can play a positive role in increasing public engagement among a largely unaware population. Implications for climate change communication in India are discussed.     

Does Engagement in Advocacy Hurt the Credibility of Scientists? Results from a Randomized National Survey Experiment

It is often assumed that issue advocacy will compromise the credibility of scientists. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to test public reactions to six different advocacy statements made by a scientist—ranging from a purely informational statement to an endorsement of specific policies. We found that perceived credibility of the communicating scientist was uniformly high in five of the six message conditions, suffering only when he advocated for a specific policy—building more nuclear power plants (although credibility did not suffer when advocating for a different specific policy—carbon dioxide limits at power plants). We also found no significant differences in trust in the broader climate science community between the six message conditions. Our results suggest that climate scientists who wish to engage in certain forms of advocacy have considerable latitude to do so without risking harm to their credibility, or the credibility of the scientific community.