高速公路安全水平仿真分析

为深入研究高速公路安全系统,用系统动力学(SD)方法分析驾驶员、车辆、道路、应急救援等组成要素以及环境、管理等影响因素之间的关系,建立高速公路安全系统因果关系模型和存量流量模型。用层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因素的权重。以三福高速公路为例,用Vensim软件模拟高速公路运营期间系统安全的变化情况。结果表明,在该高速公路运营期间,系统安全与车辆安全度呈先上升后下降的趋势、道路安全度呈下降趋势、驾驶员安全度与应急救援能力呈上升趋势。通过与实际数据对比,验证了模型的有效性。     

贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。     

Whose lawn is it anyway? Redefining problems and the implementation of municipal stormwater policies

Research of problem definitions typically centres on agenda setting and formulation with less attention given to implementation. In recognition of this gap, this analysis examines the relationship between issue definition, issue redefinition and policy implementation by reviewing two municipal stormwater plans. The results suggest that in larger issue contexts replete with ambiguity and uncertainty, problem definitions are often “tweaked” and adapted during the implementation process. In short, street-level bureaucrats craft “genetically related” but idiosyncratic problem definitions – that fit their own policy-making context. In the case of stormwater, “solutions”; are best described as dynamic policies built upon the values associated with technical expertise, public participation and environmental sustainability.     

内循环厌氧反应器流动模型及反应过程模拟

为揭示内循环厌氧反应器放大过程中所出现的规律,本文对反应器中流动模型和反应过程进行了模拟研究,通过对主反应区的停留时间分布的实验研究,确定了主反应区流型可用一平推流与两个并联的全混流进行串联的三参数组合模型进行模拟.在实验范围内,平推流区所占的体积分数约为36%,两个全混流区所占的体积分数分别为53%和11%.结合厌氧反应动力学方程,应用组合模型模拟了实际反应器的状态,并和实验值进行了对比,发现反应器出口处CH_4体积流量最大误差为9.67%,在可允许的范围内.同时,模拟了基质初始COD和温度变化对反应器出口状态的影响.研究表明,与其它模型相比,组合模型计算简洁,同时又有较好的精度,能够满足反应器的设计需要.     

我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价

针对我国生物质气化发电行业的现状,总结诸多风险的影响因素,建立了我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价体系。该评价体系主要包括5个一级风险影响因素:市场风险、技术风险、安全风险、管理风险、环境风险,每个一级影响因素包括4个二级风险影响因素。由层次分析法获得各个一级影响因素和二级影响因素的权重值,根据所构建的评价集和评分标准,结合模糊综合评价法对我国生物质气化发电行业现状的综合风险等级做定量定性分析。综合风险评价研究结果表明,生物质气化发电行业处于"较高"的风险等级,与实际情况相符。综合风险评价体系的构建合理,所建立的评价方法以及相应对策分析可为决策者提供参考依据。     

Mobility and sulfidization of heavy metals in sediments of a shallow eutrophic lake,Lake Taihu,China

The technique of DGT (diffusive gradients in thin films) using three diffusive gel thicknesses was applied to estimate the mobility and bioavailability of heavy metals in sediments and porewater of Lake Taihu, China. The DGT results showed significantly positive correlations between Co, Pb, Cd and Mn, and Ni and Fe concentrations in porewater. Cu and Zn showed a significantly negative correlation with Mn, due to Cu combination with carbonates and Zn derived from agricultural pollution, respectively. The rank order of average concentrations of Co, Ni and Cd at each station was DGT_1.92 > DGT_0.78 > DGT_0.39, suggesting stronger resupply from sediments to porewater when using thicker diffusive gels. Comparing centrifugation and DGT measurements, Co, Ni and Cd are highly labile; Mn and Fe are moderately labile; and Cu, Zn and Pb are slightly labile. The variations of AVS concentrations in sediment cores indicate that metal sulfides in deeper layers are easily diffused into surface sediments.     

考虑齐口裂腹鱼产卵需求的山区河流生态基流过程确定

在原型观测的基础上,应用生态水力学法与生境模拟法,建立对考虑齐口裂腹鱼产卵需求的山区河流水电工程生态基流过程的确定方法,并以四川中型山区河流杂谷脑河薛城电站为背景,对所构建方法进行应用分析。通过原型观测,对生态水力学的齐口裂腹鱼生境水力参数标准在杂谷脑河应用的适宜性进行分析;应用生态水力学方法,对不同河道流量下薛城电站减水河段的齐口裂腹鱼生境水力参数进行数值模拟,根据模拟结果,结合齐口裂腹鱼生境水力参数标准,分析得到薛城电站满足其生存的最小下泄流量;应用生境模拟法,对齐口裂腹鱼产卵期不同河道流量下薛城电站减水河段集中产卵场的可利用生境面积进行计算,得到最大可利用生境面积对应的下泄流量。综合最小下泄流量值与最大可利用生境面积所对应的下泄流量值,考虑齐口裂腹鱼产卵对水文情势的要求,建立薛城电站考虑齐口裂腹鱼产卵需求的生态基流过程。采用所构建方法得到的考虑鱼类产卵需求的水电工程生态基流过程,由于考虑了鱼类生存对最低流量以及产卵对水文情势的要求,能更好地满足鱼类产卵需求,可作为电站运行调度的约束。     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

Effects of typical additives on the thermal stability of ammonium peroxydisulfate

Ammonium peroxydisulfate (APS), one of the most widely used inorganic peroxides in the process industries, is a thermally unstable peroxide and potent oxidizer due to the presence of peroxy bond in the molecule and is incompatible with most substances. To investigate the effect of typical additives on the thermal decomposition of APS, in this paper, diamine phosphate (DAP), monoamine phosphate (MAP), and aluminum hydroxide (AH) were selected as additives; pure APS and samples with 10 wt% and 20 wt% of additives were first tested by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The experiments and analysis showed that the samples with 10 wt% of additive had better thermal stability than those with 20 wt% of additive. After screening, the three groups of 10 wt% AH, 10 wt% MAP, and 20 wt% MAP additive conditions could be considered to have a better thermal stability effect on the thermal decomposition of APS. Four groups of samples were, in turn, tested by Phi-Tec II. The adiabatic results showed two discontinuous exothermic processes; 10 wt% AH promoted the weak exothermic effect in the first stage. In contrast, the three groups of additives in the main exothermic stage showed different degrees of inhibition, and the inhibiting effect was ranked as 10 wt% AH, 10 wt% MAP, and 20 wt% MAP in order. Finally, the self-accelerated decomposition temperature (SADT) was calculated under the 25 kg standard package. The adiabatic results, including SADT, were combined to render feasible recommendations for the use of additives, which provides references for the packaging and transportation of additives and their applications.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.