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371.
中国经济发展方式的转变动力及其作用途径 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以全要素生产率增长动力作为经济发展方式的转变动力,本文采用1989-2013年4组省际面板数据经由可行广义最小二乘法实证估计了10个动力因素对全要素生产率增长率的贡献水平与作用途径。研究发现:技术创新水平、市场化水平、人力资本存量水平、异质性企业集聚水平和对外开放度的综合指数对中国全要素生产率增长率的回归估计系数分别为0.575 7,0.212 5,0.136 8,0.064 4和0.018,表明技术创新、市场化改革、人力资本积累、异质性企业集聚和对外开放是促进中国经济发展方式转变的直接动力因素。进一步的研究结果显示:技术创新和异质性企业集聚通过提高前沿技术进步率和生产效率变化率以及规模报酬收益率途径,市场化改革通过提高前沿技术进步率途径,人力资本积累与对外开放通过提高前沿技术进步率和规模报酬收益率途径,促进了中国全要素生产率增长。虽然产业结构变迁、城市化、基础设施建设、区域经济政策实施和金融发展对中国全要素生产率的增长表现为负向或拖累作用,但是,产业结构变迁与城市化能够提高前沿技术进步率,基础设施建设和区域经济政策能够提高规模报酬收益率,金融发展能够提高生产效率增长率和规模报酬收益率,这5项动力因素对促进中国全要素生产率增长的正向贡献有待提高。依据上述研究结论,本文提出尽快攻克制约生产率增长的核心技术,统筹考虑产业结构升级、城市化、基础设施建设和区域经济政策实施以及加快金融领域改革等政策建议,以期加快我国经济发展方式转变进程。 相似文献
372.
王洪波 《长江流域资源与环境》2016,25(2):342-349
在系统搜集、整理明清苏浙沿海潮灾记录基础上,建立风暴潮频率辨识方法,复原台风风暴潮灾害750次,据此建立逐年风暴潮频率序列。分析显示,1460~1480年、1570~1595年、1715~1745年、1785~1810年、1880~1890年为风暴潮活跃期。明清苏浙沿海风暴潮存在45 a、25 a、14 a三种时间尺度周期,其中45 a周期最为显著。气候跃变分析表明,1402年、1457年、1566年、1624年、1652年、1711年、1846年、1880年风暴潮活动趋于活跃;1444年、1477年、1543年、1634年、1799年、1856年风暴潮趋于平静。与1470年以来温度距平曲线对比显示,气候冷暖与风暴潮发生频率有一定正相关性,全球变暖背景下苏浙沿海可能面临更为严重的风暴潮威胁。苏浙地区明清时期风暴潮灾害空间分布差异明显,大部分风暴潮记载集中于长三角、杭州湾地区,苏北地区风暴潮数量少但影响范围广,浙东地区受地形和经济发展程度影响,风暴潮记载数量少且集中于滨海。 相似文献
373.
基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为分析近年来江苏省苏北地区季节性干旱灾害特征,利用苏北五市1989~2013年的逐月降水量资料,建立月降水量的广义极值分布函数,通过分析广义极值干旱指数(GEVI),研究苏北五市近25a的季节性干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用去趋势波动分析方法(DFA)对苏北五市月平均降水量的周期性规律进行研究。结果表明,苏北五市的月降水量均服从广义极值Fréchet概率分布,且具有从西北(徐州)地区向东南沿海(盐城)地区递增的空间分布特征,整体上属于干旱灾害频发的地区,且以轻旱为主且季节性特征明显。苏北五市的月降水量存在幂律相关性,即降水量具有较强的正长程相关性,因此,未来苏北地区干旱的总体趋势将与过去特征正相关。 相似文献
374.
375.
结合模糊优选理论和灰色关联分析方法,提出灰色模糊综合评价法,该方法将灰色关联分析作为优属度确定的隶属度计算方法;提出理想环境序列建立遵循的原则,引入梯形模糊数实现定性指标量化并采用变异系数法确定评价指标权重.应用灰色模糊综合评价法对黄河流域河段水电规划的高坝方案和多级开发方案进行了比选研究,计算了两个方案的优属度及其开发性因子、稳定性因子、保护性因子、经济活力因子、社会可接受因子、环境风险因子等6个指标层优属度,结果表明,多级开发方案总体优于高坝方案;多级开发方案的保护性远好于高坝开发方案,而高坝方案的开发性略好于多级开发方案,稳定性、经济活力、社会可接受、环境风险等因子两种方案比较接近.评价结果与流域实际情况比较符合,证明该方法是一种有效的方法. 相似文献
376.
M. Reza Ghanbarpour Keith William Hipel 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2009,11(2):241-253
Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic
or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within
the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements
the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction
of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study
demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between
economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the
conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing
alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. 相似文献
377.
Tim S. Nawrot Nino Kuenzli Jordi Sunyer Tingming Shi Teresa Moreno Mar Viana Joachim Heinrich Bertil Forsberg Frank J. Kelly Muhammad Sughis Benoit Nemery Paul Borm 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2009,43(30):4595-4602
We assessed the extent to which constituents of PM2.5 (transition metals, sodium, chloride) contribute to the ability to generate hydroxyl radicals (OH) in vitro in PM2.5 sampled at 20 locations in 19 European centres participating in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. PM2.5 samples (n = 716) were collected on filters over one year and the oxidative activity of particle suspensions obtained from these filters was then assessed by measuring their ability to generate OH in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. Associations between OH formation and the studied PM constituents were heterogeneous. The total explained variance ranged from 85% in Norwich to only 6% in Albacete. Among the 20 centres, 15 showed positive correlations between one or more of the measured transition metals (copper, iron, manganese, lead, vanadium and titanium) and OH formation. In 9 of 20 centres OH formation was negatively associated with chloride, and in 3 centres with sodium. Across 19 European cities, elements which explained the largest variations in OH formation were chloride, iron and sodium. 相似文献
378.
How good is GLASOD? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data. 相似文献
379.
Mark S. Reed Anil Graves Norman Dandy Helena Posthumus Klaus Hubacek Joe Morris Christina Prell Claire H. Quinn Lindsay C. Stringer 《Journal of environmental management》2009
Stakeholder analysis means many things to different people. Various methods and approaches have been developed in different fields for different purposes, leading to confusion over the concept and practice of stakeholder analysis. This paper asks how and why stakeholder analysis should be conducted for participatory natural resource management research. This is achieved by reviewing the development of stakeholder analysis in business management, development and natural resource management. The normative and instrumental theoretical basis for stakeholder analysis is discussed, and a stakeholder analysis typology is proposed. This consists of methods for: i) identifying stakeholders; ii) differentiating between and categorising stakeholders; and iii) investigating relationships between stakeholders. The range of methods that can be used to carry out each type of analysis is reviewed. These methods and approaches are then illustrated through a series of case studies funded through the Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) programme. These case studies show the wide range of participatory and non-participatory methods that can be used, and discuss some of the challenges and limitations of existing methods for stakeholder analysis. The case studies also propose new tools and combinations of methods that can more effectively identify and categorise stakeholders and help understand their inter-relationships. 相似文献
380.
Public rangelands in North America are typically managed under a multiple use policy that includes livestock grazing and wildlife
management. In this article we report on the landscape level extent of grassland loss to shrub encroachment in a portion of
the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve in southwestern Alberta, Canada, and review the associated implications for simultaneously
supporting livestock and wildlife populations while maintaining range health on this diminishing vegetation type. Digitized
aerial photographs of 12 km of valley bottom from 1958 and 1974 were co-registered to ortho-rectified digital imagery taken
in 1998, and an un-supervised classification used to determine areas associated with grassland and shrubland in each year.
Field data from 2002 were over-layed using GPS coordinates to refine the classification using a calibration-validation procedure.
Over the 40-year study period, open grasslands declined from 1,111 ha in 1958 to 465 ha in 1998, representing a 58% decrease.
Using mean production data for grass and shrub dominated areas we then quantified aggregate changes in grazing capacity of
both primary (grassland) and secondary (shrubland) habitats for livestock and wildlife. Total declines in grazing capacity
from 1958 to 1998 totaled 2,744 Animal Unit Months (AUMs) of forage (−39%), including a 58% decrease in primary (i.e., open
grassland) range, which was only partly offset by the availability of 1,357 AUMs within less productive and less accessible
shrubland habitats. Our results indicate shrub encroachment has been extensive and significantly reduced forage availability
to domestic livestock and wildlife, and will increase the difficulty of conserving remaining grasslands. Although current
grazing capacities remain marginally above those specified by regulated grazing policies, it is clear that continued habitat
change and decreases in forage availability are likely to threaten the condition of remaining grasslands. Unless shrub encroachment
is arrested or grassland restoration initiated, reductions in aggregate ungulate numbers may be necessary.
相似文献
Edward W. BorkEmail: |