近15a江苏省水源涵养功能时空变化与影响因素探析

定量评估生态系统服务功能是合理利用自然资源、促进人地关系与可持续发展的基础。以江苏省为研究区,基于InVEST模型产水模块,定量分析了江苏省2000~2015年产水功能和水源涵养功能的时空变化特征,并采用回归分析和主成分分析法评估了水源涵养功能与社会经济要素之间的关系。结果表明：（1）江苏省多年平均产水量为571×108 m³/a,水源涵养总量78.39×108 m³/a;（2）2000~2010年江苏省水源涵养功能呈下降趋势,2010~2015年有所回升,考虑到降水因素,江苏省实际水源涵养功能持续降低;（3）土地利用变化使15a来水源涵养功能下降15.2×108 m³,降低幅度为16.9%;（4）流域尺度上水源涵养功能与江苏社会经济因素相关关系不显著。研究结果可以为土地利用优化、流域水资源管理提供科学参考和支持。     

不同类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律研究

为探究各类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律,为飞行员日常工作管理提供依据,选取某航空公司200名飞行员进行压力测试,并调取其近6 a的飞机品质(QAR)数据,通过相关性分析和线性回归分析将飞行员压力数据与其QAR数据进行对比分析,探究飞行员压力对飞行安全绩效的影响规律。研究结果表明:工作负荷压力、家庭压力、人际关系压力和组织管理压力会显著负向影响飞行员安全绩效;角色压力和专业发展压力会显著正向影响飞行员安全绩效。     

不同煤层煤氧化自燃性实验分析

为研究不同煤层煤自然发火特征的异同性及规律,以淮南矿区1号、3号、6号、13号煤层为研究对象,通过自然发火实验,对不同煤层煤的自然发火期周期、煤样70℃时放热强度和R70值进行分析。研究结果表明:4个不同煤层煤样自燃性由强到弱依次为:3煤>6煤>1煤>13煤;变质程度相近的4个煤层,3煤自然发火期最短,这与煤体中硫分和水分含量高有关;13煤变质程度较高,且前期放热强度、耗氧速率增长缓慢,其自燃性较弱;4个不同煤层煤的耗氧速率、CO,CO2产生率,以及C2H4/C2H6值随煤温升高具有相似的变化规律;煤中CH4气体大量解吸出现于煤温60℃之前,煤中灰分在80~120℃开始逐渐吸热融化,解析和融化均会抑制煤氧接触并且减小煤氧反应放热总量。     

Validation of the Polish version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population (60–70 years old)

Purpose. To assess the reliability and validity of the Polish version of the 36-point World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population. Method. One thousand randomly selected individuals, aged 60–70 years, living in south-eastern Poland were assessed using the Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0. Results. The analysis confirmed the high reliability and validity of the tool. Cronbach’s α index was 0.89. The tool had high stability, and the correlation between test and retest results was high. The relevance of the domain selection was high or very high. A factor analysis confirmed the relevance of assigning questions to domains. High theoretical relevance was also demonstrated. Statistically significant differences between those who were and were not suffering from health problems were observed. An analysis of the internal structure of the WHODAS 2.0 revealed strong correlations between the components of each domain and the final result. Conclusion. The Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0 showed high reliability and validity; thus, it can be used to assess health, functioning and disability in the elderly population of Poland.     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性,基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法,提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先,利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数,构建管段的影响系数矩阵,并利用信息熵确定管段权重;其次,标准化处理影响系数矩阵,通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法,对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定;最后,根据工程实例进行方法实践,结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理,地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀,而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响,保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

“Science is Everywhere,but No One Knows It”: Assessing the Cultural Distance to Science of Rural South African Publics

ABSTRACT

In science communication, a prerequisite for reaching different parts of a society is to find out how these publics experience and interpret science. Since rural South African publics are perceived to exhibit a large cultural distance to science, the present exploratory study aimed to know in more detail how rural South Africans perceive and understand science in their local and social contexts. Theoretical notions on cultural distance and the methodological approach of segmentation studies were considered. Semi-structured interviews with rural South Africans were carried out in four towns (n?=?52) that differ with respect to having a large scientific installation in their vicinity, or not. Sensitively comparing local and social contexts helped identifying three different publics who differed regarding their perceptions of science; however, the large scientific installations only made a difference in perceptions for those publics who were generally less exposed to and less knowledgeable about science.     

水环境中石油类物质分析方法探讨

在详述了国内外石油类分析方法的基础上,对各方法的适用范围、优缺点及可比性进行了深入分析,阐述了各类方法存在的共性问题,指出按照石油类物质毒性大小分别定量分析的方法将是未来的发展趋势。     

稀有鮈鲫成体神经发生相关基因的分子克隆及序列分析

成体神经发生是脊椎动物中广泛存在的一种生物学特征。成体硬骨鱼类的脑展现出强烈的神经活性以及出色的脑修复能力,这使得硬骨鱼类成为研究成体神经发生和脑修复的一个理想的模型。本文克隆了成体稀有鮈鲫(Gobiocypris rarus)脑组织中神经发生及脑修复相关的hes5、pax6、sox11和prox1基因的部分c DNA序列并进行了序列分析。序列分析结果表明,pax6和sox11基因片段与斑马鱼(Danio rerio)对应的基因片段的同源性最高,分别为97%和94%;hes5基因与鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)相对应的基因片段的同源性最高,为92%;prox1基因在物种间的同源性最低。基于稀有鮈鲫和已知物种相应基因的核苷酸序列构建了系统发育树,发现稀有鮈鲫prox1基因与其他硬骨鱼类的亲缘关系最远。本文为进一步开展神经毒性类化学品对水生生物鱼类的成体神经毒性作用机制研究提供了分子生物学基础。