主成分和聚类分析应用于淮南矿区地下水水质评价

运用主成分方法分析淮南矿区23个地下水样的7个水样指标,提取出4个主成分,应用聚类分析对该4个主成分的得分进行聚类。在此基础上,将主成分得分与其对应的特征值相乘,得到水质综合评价指数。聚类分析后水样划分为5类,对每一类的水质综合评价指数取平均值,从而确定水质等级。     

概率分析法在污水海洋排放近区模拟中的应用

污水海洋排放时需要分析排放口近区的羽流几何特性和稀释特性,概率分析法是其中重要的方法之一．本文阐述了概率分析法的基本原理,通过实例演示了概率分析法应用于污水海洋排放近区模拟分析的过程． 根据概率分析法所提供的结果,总结了概率分析法的优点,即提供了排放口近区的全面信息,由此可以进行后续工作,如远区模拟和风险评估;结合实例, 指出了应用概率分析法的局限,它对输入信息量和计算速度（ 计算工作量） 的要求较高;随计算机运算速度的提高和自动监测技术的发展,应用概率分析法的这一局限可以克服,因此,概率分析法具有广阔的应用前景．     

基于DEM地表水文特征和汇水子流域的提取研究

文章以天津于桥水库上游流域为研究对象,以DEM(数字高程模型)为基础数据,对DEM生成方法、DEM精度、流域地形地貌特征及阈值的选取三个方面分别作了详细研究。试验结果表明,从于桥水库上游流域的水文特征所提取的河网分布与河流与实际分布情况基本吻合,淋河、沙河、黎河三大流域的面积误差范围分别为-3.44%、2.28%和7.63%。     

影响中国碳排放绩效的区域特征研究——基于熵值法的聚类分析

论文选择影响碳排放绩效的主要指标,基于熵值法确定各指标权重,采用系统聚类分析的方法,以中国省域为研究对象,将全国分为7类区域。分析结果显示:区域分工特征是造成目前中国省级碳排放绩效区域差异的主要影响因素,其次是高碳产业工艺特征和能源结构特征,而经济结构对解释省级碳排放绩效区域差异的贡献有限。北方地区高碳产品生产份额高且工艺水平相对低,能源消费中极高的煤炭比例加重了负面影响,造成其二氧化碳排放绩效水平低,特别是华北地区;近年来东南沿海地区高碳产业也逐步增加,但由于其工艺先进,在一定程度上抵消了高碳产品份额高的负面影响;中西部地区目前高碳产品份额虽然低于东部地区,但工艺水平也低,造成了其低水平的二氧化碳排放绩效。由于各省历史发展、自然资源禀赋、区域分工角色等因素不同,且遵从经济宏观发展客观规律和经济区位理论,除了少数发达地区之外,中国其他区域短时间内很难改变其经济和能源结构,低碳政策制定的重点应放在提高高碳产业工艺水平方面。     

湘东北典型河源区土壤重金属分布特征、来源解析及潜在生态风险评价

水源地土壤环境质量状况关乎其流域内居民生命健康安全,是生态环境保护研究中的热点科学问题.选择湘东北典型河源区,采集表层土壤样品共87件,通过GIS技术和潜在生态风险指数法研究了土壤重金属（Cd、Pb、Cr、Hg和As）的空间分布特征和潜在生态风险,并采用多元统计分析和正定矩阵因子分解（PMF）模型解释了其可能来源和贡献率.结果表明：①湘东北典型河源区土壤呈酸性,土壤重金属ω（Cd）、ω（Pb）、ω（Cr）、ω（Hg）和ω（As）平均值分别为0.20、41.07、130.51、0.29和11.63mg ·kg^-1,对标背景值,除As外均有富集;②土壤重金属综合潜在生态风险为中等风险等级,其中Cr、Pb和As为轻微风险等级,Cd和Hg均为强风险等级;③土壤Cd和Pb具有同源性,主要来源于农业活动,Cr和As受生活垃圾排放和自然母质的双重影响,Hg主要来源于化石燃烧及交通运输;④生活垃圾排放源、自然母质源、化石燃烧及交通运输源和农业活动源对湘东北典型河源区土壤重金属的贡献率分别为21.36%、35.92%、19.30%和23.42%,人为源贡献率大于自然源.研究结果对湘东北典型河源区的污染防治、生态修复和美丽乡村建设具有参考价值.     

An approach to optimise nutrient management in environmental sanitation systems despite limited data

The material flow analysis method can be used to assess the impact of environmental sanitation systems on resource consumption and environmental pollution. However, given the limited access to reliable data, application of this data-intensive method in developing countries may be difficult. This paper presents an approach allowing to develop material flow models despite limited data availability. Application of an iterative procedure is of key importance: model parameter values should first be assessed on the basis of a literature review and by eliciting expert judgement. If model outputs are not plausible, sensitive input parameters should be reassessed more accurately. Moreover, model parameters can be expressed as probability distributions and variable uncertainty estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The impact of environmental sanitation systems on the phosphorus load discharged into surface water in Hanoi, Vietnam, is simulated by applying the proposed approach.     

中国碳交易市场发展现状及对策分析

中国强制碳交易标的物的确定、排放权的分配、排放源的监测核查等制度设计尚不明晰,也未出台温室气体交易活动的相关管理办法,碳减排体系尚未真正确立。碳市场处于初建期、探索期。通过对碳交易活动的背景、实质、运行机制以及国内碳交易现状的分析,结合应对气候变化的国际进展和国内政策行动对中国碳交易市场发展对策进行了探讨。     

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.     

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF BMP EFFECTWENESS FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN FROM URBAN NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of urban Best Management Practices (BMPs) in achieving the No-Net-Increase Policy (NNTP), a policy designed to limit nonpoint nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound (US), is analyzed. A unit loading model is used to simulate annual nitrogen exported from the Norwalk River watershed (Connecticut) under current and future conditions. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis is used to incorporate uncertainty in nitrogen export coefficients and BMP nitrogen removal effectiveness. The inclusion of uncertainty in BMP effectiveness and nitrogen export coefficients implies that additional BMPs, or BMPs with a greater effectiveness in nitrogen removal, will be required to achieve the NNIP. Even though including uncertainty leads to an increase in BMP implementation rates or BMP effectiveness, this type of analysis provides the decision maker with a more realistic assessment of the likelihood that implementing BMPs as a management strategy will be successful. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that applying BMPs to new urban developments alone will not be sufficient to achieve the NNIP since BMPs are not 100 percent effective in removing the increase in nitrogen caused by urbanization. BMPs must also be applied to selected existing urban areas. BMPs with a nitrogen removal effectiveness of 40–60 percent, probably the highest level of removal that can be expected over an entire watershed, must be applied to at least 75 percent of the existing urban area to achieve the NNIP This high rate of application is not likely to be achieved in urbanized watersheds in the LIS watershed; therefore, additional point source control will be necessary to achieve the NNIP     

基于负产品投入产出分析的循环经济定量化评价及实证研究

借用投入产出法的矩阵思想，构建了一个部门间以负产品关联的投入产出分析模型。基于此模型建立了衡量研究区域循环经济模式下的各生产部门的收益与贡献以及区域整体的环境效益和经济效益的评价指标。实证研究中，应用上述指标对深圳市南山区月亮湾循环经济产业示范园区进行了相关评价与分析，同时指出了该评价方法的优点与不足。