自然灾害综合预报和年度会商

本文从系统论的观点和高度上分析了自然灾害综合预报的必要性和重要意义，同时结合陕西省近几年开展年度综合会商的实际和体会，就自然灾害综合预报和年度会商的具体内容、形式和方法等建设问题进行了讨论，最后提出了今后进一步改进会商质量、提高预报水平的建议。     

A corporate approach to social monitoring and assessment for development in a fragile environment

The prevailing corporate trend regardingdevelopment of energy resources in the tropics emphasizesfinancial gain over long-term societal benefits. Somecorporations are beginning to find a competitive advantage linkedto proactive relations with host communities and adequateprotection of fragile ecosystems. Herein, we describe a casestudy where an international energy production company workedwith stakeholders to achieve social capital and sustainabledevelopment. The strategies aimed to strengthen local capacity toimprove social welfare and to ensure conservation and wise use ofbiodiversity. We provide examples, discuss lessons learned andmake recommendations for future development projects.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.     

Getting stakeholder participation ‘right’: a discussion of participatory processes and possible pitfalls

The planning step of an ecological risk assessment includes the largest role for public participation in the entire assessment, for it is here that the risk manager must ensure that the assessment will yield the information he needs to make a decision. This essay discusses some general characteristics of public participation in ecological risk assessments, including the ways in which different lifestyles may lead to the establishment of community specific management goals and hence of different endpoints; the type and nature of the input provided by the public to the risk assessment and the ways in which input from the public differs from input from the scientific community; and a discussion of definitions of stakeholders and participatory processes which emphasizes their contextual nature. The essay concludes with a review of some of the challenges facing a risk manager as he designs a participatory process. Six major areas are discussed, each incorporating suggestions that should reduce difficulties in implementation of such a process and increase the likelihood of acceptance of its outcome, and hence the overall quality of the risk assessment.     

Perception of the environmental impacts of current and alternative modes of pig production by stakeholder groups

The current industrial pig production model is in crisis, due to its association with environmental pollution, doubtful product quality and lack of animal well-being. In Bretagne (France), a region of intensive pig production, a survey of seven stakeholder groups concerned with pig production was conducted, as part of a research programme dedicated to the assessment of the environmental impact of different modes of pig production. A very large majority of pig producers (93%) and their suppliers (100%) considers pig farms as an asset for the region, whereas a majority of scientists (58%), activists (78%) and consumers (54%) sees it as a handicap. Differences among stakeholder groups are minor with respect to the perceived importance of environmental and social issues. Stakeholders agree on the relative level of responsibility of pig farms with respect to specific problems. For all groups unpleasant odours and water quality come first with respect to responsibility, for most groups soil quality comes second, followed by product safety and air quality. For a future improved mode of pig production, 76% of pig producers and their suppliers prefer to adapt the current model, for all other groups the majority prefers an alternative model. While pig producers and their suppliers prefer a slurry-based housing system, all other groups prefer a straw-based system. Pig producers see the slurry-based system as technically superior and associate the straw-based system with poor working conditions, whereas consumers associate the slurry-based system in the first place with poor water quality and associate the straw-based system with less pollution. These results will be of use in the research programme on the environmental impact of modes of pig production, as they indicate the environmental impacts to be considered and their relative importance. The results will also help in deciding which options should be assessed. It is concluded that the poor image of the current pig production model and its production practices with consumers does not seem compatible with a sustainable demand for pork products.     

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.     

A stakeholder driven process to reduce vulnerability to climate change in Hermosillo,Sonora, Mexico

While there is a growing body of knowledge on potential impacts of climate change on water availability, there has been much less empirical research on exploring the viability of particular adaptation options. The participation of stakeholders in defining appropriate adaptation strategies is increasingly recognized as a critical element in the translation of climate change impact research into effective actions to reduce future vulnerability, yet the process by which stakeholders are included in such initiatives is not well-defined. This article presents the results of a pilot project in which a participatory approach was employed to identify and evaluate adaptation options to climate change scenarios for Sonora’s capital city, Hermosillo. In an iterative process, stakeholders representing different water users and managers in the city met to discuss climate change scenarios, identify specific adaptation options, and evaluate a subset of options for possible future implementation. This process enabled the focus of the investigation on those adaptations that addressed not only concerns with the potential future impacts of climate change but also the immediate and pressing concerns about development patterns and water use in the city. Two of the adaptations to climate change identified by stakeholders would also reduce energy demand. The simplicity of the approach makes it a feasible model for adaptation initiatives in other regions of Mexico and in other countries in Latin America.

自然灾害应急会商协调网络特征与优化研究*

为研究自然灾害减灾应急会商协调网络特征与优化,引入社会网络分析方法,以全国自然灾害基本情况发布通知为数据来源,构建自然灾害应急会商协调网络,从网络整体结构与机构节点属性2个方面刻画应急管理部组建前后应急会商协调网络的演进路径,并结合凝聚子群分析应急会商协调网络的派系结构与资源流动情况。研究结果表明:可以从应急资源的传递、共享与集聚角度重构自然灾害应急会商协调框架,提出从日常会商与灾情发布统一、发挥部际协调的平台优势、助力应急响应与处置实践3个方面优化应急会商协调模式的政策建议。     

我国土壤环境修复咨询服务业发展研究

2019年是《中华人民共和国土壤污染防治法》实施的第一年,2020年我国迎来了《土壤污染防治行动计划》的大考,“十三五”期间我国土壤环境修复产业市场规模接近6900亿元,下达中央土壤污染防治专项资金259.13亿元,主要用于示范性农田和工业场地修复、全国土壤环境调查以及土壤污染防治先行区建设等,资金整体落实情况较好。土壤环境修复产业是支撑我国土壤污染防治目标指标和各项任务完成的重要支撑和物质保障,产业发展状况和水平直接决定了目标和任务的完成水平。本文基于土壤环境修复政策指南和招投标数据库,从政策、市场、队伍、项目、模式、问题、展望等方面系统分析了2019年我国土壤环境修复咨询服务业发展状况、水平与特点,提出了修复咨询服务业发展中存在的主要问题,对未来发展趋势进行了预测分析,以期为全面了解我国土壤环境修复咨询服务市场、开展土壤环境管理和社会投资提供参考。