DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

Use of hydrodynamic models for the management of the Danube Delta wetlands: The case study of Sontea-Fortuna ecosystem

Due to its high biodiversity the Danube Delta, in Romania, is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Natural Site and it is listed as a RAMSAR wetland. The Danube River variable discharges have a great impact on the habitats and the overall ecological status of the delta. One of its most vulnerable parts, from both hydrodynamic and morphological point of view is the Sontea-Fortuna wetland located in the upstream of the Danube Delta. Sontea-Fortuna wetland is susceptible to both floods and droughts. On a long term, decision makers in the area need to know which measures to implement and how these will impact/improve the environment.This article presents how a 3D hydrodynamic model can be used as support for making sound decisions regarding the management of deltaic ecosystems. In particular, the methodology is applied on the Sontea-Fortuna wetland. The case study is part of a wider research in the area, which was developed within the EnviroGRIDS EU FP7 research project. EnviroGRIDS aimed at building capacity for scientists, decision-makers and the general public in the Black Sea Catchment, through collection and sharing of environmental data and models at the basin scale.     

Green defaults: Information presentation and pro-environmental behaviour

There is inconsistency in many people's choice of electricity. When asked, they say they prefer a ‘green’ (i.e., environmentally friendly) source for this energy. Yet, although green electricity is available in many markets, people do not generally buy it. Why not? Motivated by behavioural decision research, we argue that the format of information presentation drastically affects the choice of electricity. Specifically, we hypothesise that people use the kind of electricity that is offered to them as the default. We present two natural studies and two experiments in the laboratory that support this hypothesis. In the two real-world situations, there was a green default, and most people used it. In the first laboratory experiment, more participants chose the green utility when it was the default than when ‘grey’ electricity was the default. In the second laboratory experiment, participants asked for more money to give up green electricity than they were willing to pay for it. We argue that changing defaults can be used to promote pro-environmental behaviour. Potential policy-making applications of this work are discussed.     

Hazardous waste indicators for national decision makers

Indicators and indices are important tools that assist decision makers to formulate and implement plans for management at local, national and international levels. Four indicators for hazardous waste management are described that have recently been adopted within the United Nations framework of Indicators of Sustainable Development. Although these four indicators will be useful tools, the need for a broader range of policy-relevant qualitative and quantitative indicators, proxy indicators and indices is outlined. The argument is advanced that in order for all nations to better manage the range of hazardous waste issues, including waste generation, export/import and disposal, a set of innovative indicators and indices is required. Useful indicators and indices are described that could be used to link and quantify likely environmental, ecosystem and health impacts and risks especially from hazardous waste disposal. Indicators are also suggested that could be used to illustrate the shift in industrial strategy away from end-of-pipe processes towards waste recycling, cleaner production and integrated life-cycle analysis. It was concluded that until the lack of reliable and harmonized data on hazardous waste is addressed, indicator development and use by national and international decision makers cannot readily be implemented.     

Pathways of system transformation: Strategic agency to support regime change

There is a well-recognised need to transform existing systems of production and consumption towards a more sustainable orientation. However, there is much uncertainty about how to achieve sustainability transitions in practice, and what transition advocates and actors can do to catalyse and steer regime transformation. We therefore need evidence of how transitions are operationalised, in order to better understand the on-ground dynamics of regime change. To address this gap, this research paper examines three contemporary cases of transformational change in the Australian urban water sector and the dominant strategic approach to change adopted in each city. It focuses on the strategic behaviour of actors, in particular examining how agents navigate and respond to the opportunities and constraints of their context, and what initiatives (or combination thereof) can facilitate innovation diffusion and regime transformation. The results reveal three distinct patterns of change, each of which favour particular strategic interventions by transition proponents.In order to incubate transformational change, the results suggest that actors may be best served by initially employing strategies that are immediately compatible with their existing context. However, examination of the strengths and weaknesses of each pattern confirm that no single strategic approach is in itself sufficient, and in order to embed a novel innovation and bring about regime change, actors will eventually need to broaden the range of interventions used. The results also reveal the possibility of a ‘pattern-dependence’ that actors need to deliberately work to overcome in order to fully mainstream the desired change. These findings therefore provide insight into the links between regime transformation, patterns of change and actor strategies while also offering practical guidance that can be used to inform the design and implementation of regime transformation agendas and programs.     

Balancing Emotion and Cognition: a Case for Decision Aiding in Conservation Efforts

Abstract: Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision‐making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect‐based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision‐aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect‐based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value‐focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision‐relevant objectives by making the technical and value‐based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect‐based decisions. Trade‐off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value‐based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision‐making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect‐rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision‐making authorities and the decision process.     

Understanding farmer intentions to connect to a modernised delivery system in an Australian irrigation district: a reasoned action approach

Australian governments have sought to invest in irrigation infrastructure to improve the efficiency of water delivery to rural properties and improve water supply and on-farm efficiency. A programme of rationalising irrigation infrastructure has attracted criticism and doubts about its likely success. Attitude theory in the form of the Reasoned Action Model was applied to understand the intentions of landowners to connect to a ‘modernised’ irrigation system. Attitudes towards connecting to the system, social norms and perceptions of control over the behaviour provided an explanation of intentions to connect. Actual financial capability and other variables were important in discriminating a group of landowners who had already connected to the modernised system from farmers who had not.     

A framework for assessing the impact of land use policy on community exposure to air toxics

Our research focuses on the linkage between land use planning policy and the spatial pattern of exposure to air toxics emissions. Our objective is to develop a modeling framework for assessment of the community health risk implications of land use policy. The modeling framework is not intended to be a regulatory tool for small-scale land use decisions, but a long-range planning tool to assess the community health risk implications of alternative land use scenarios at a regional or subregional scale. This paper describes the development and application of an air toxic source model for generating aggregate emission factors for industrial and commercial zoning districts as a function of permitted uses. To address the uncertainty of estimating air toxics emission rates for planned general land use or zoning districts, the source model uses an emissions probability mass function that weights each incremental permitted land use activity by the likelihood of occurrence. We thus reduce the uncertainty involved in planning for development with no prior knowledge of the specific industries that may locate within the land use district. These air toxics emission factors can then be used to estimate pollutant atmospheric mass flux from land use zoning districts, which can then be input to air dispersion and human health risk assessment models to simulate the spatial pattern of air toxics exposure risk. The model database was constructed using the California Air Toxics Inventory, 1997 US Economic Census, and land assessment records from several California counties. The database contains information on more than 200 air toxics at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. We present a case study to illustrate application of the model. LUAIRTOX, the interactive spreadsheet model that applies our methodology to the California data, is available at http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~mwillis/LUAIRTOX.htm.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

Watershed management and the Web

Watershed analysis and watershed management are developing as tools of integrated ecological and economic study. They also assist decision-making at the regional scale. The new technology and thinking offered by the advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web is highly complementary to some of the goals of watershed analysis. Services delivered by the Web are open, interactive, fast, spatially distributed, hierarchical and flexible. The Web offers the ability to display information creatively, to interact with that information and to change and modify it remotely. In this way the Internet provides a much-needed opportunity to deliver scientific findings and information to stakeholders and to link stakeholders together providing for collective decision-making. The benefits fall into two major categories: methodological and educational. Methodologically the approach furthers the watershed management concept, offering an avenue for practical implementation of watershed management principles. For educational purposes the Web is a source of data and insight serving a variety of needs at all levels. We use the Patuxent River case study to illustrate the web-based approach to watershed management. A watershed scale simulation model is built for the Patuxent area and it serves as a core for watershed management design based on web applications. It integrates the knowledge available for the Patuxent area in a comprehensive and systematic format, and provides a conceptual basis for understanding the performance of the watershed as a system. Moreover, the extensive data collection and conceptualisation required within the framework of the modeling effort stimulates close contact with the environmental management community. This is further enhanced by offering access to the modeling results and the data sets over the Web. Additional web applications and links are provided to increase awareness and involvement of stakeholders in the watershed management process. We argue that it is not the amount and quality of information that is crucial for the success of watershed management, but how well the information is disseminated, shared and used by the stakeholders. In this respect the Web offers a wealth of opportunities for the decision-making process, but still to be answered are the questions at what scale and how widely will the Web be accepted as a management tool, and how can watershed management benefit from web applications.